证券研究报告 航天军工 新装备建设周期下的新结构 华泰研究 2025 年 11 月 25 日│中国内地 年度策略 复盘"十四五"：军工体量迈上新台阶 我军建设"十四五"规划，是国防和军队现代化新"三步走"战略的起步规 划，也是实现建军一百年奋斗目标的蓝图设计。"十四五"期间，我军构建 起"4 支军种+4 支兵种"的新型军兵种结构布局，以机械化为基础、信息 化为主导、智能化为方向，武器装备建设实现跨越式发展。随着新一代主战 武器装备研发列装，军工板块上市公司营收规模迈上新台阶。2024 年，中 信国防军工指数 119 只成分股实现营收合计 4194.35 亿元，较 2020 年营收 合计 3349.01 亿元增长 25.24%，复合增速 5.79%；2025Q1-Q3，119 家军 工上市公司营收合计 2801.84 亿元，同比增长 3.23%。同时，武器装备科 研生产能力也得到提升，2025Q3 末，119 家军工上市公司固定资产合计 1671.53 亿元，较 2020 年末固定资产合计 1089.32 亿元增长 53.45%。 展望"十五五"：或将由"量"的增值转向"质"的提升 党的二十届四中全会着眼强国建 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a style switch, with significant declines in technology sectors like semiconductors and storage chips, while military, public utilities, and traditional consumer sectors are showing strong gains, particularly the military sector which rose nearly 5% [2][4][10]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - Major A-share indices have weakened, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.94%, the Shenzhen Component down 2.7%, and the ChiNext Index down 4.55%, marking the largest single-day decline in nearly six months [2]. - The military sector has emerged as a strong performer, contributing to most of the limit-up stocks on the day [2]. Sector Analysis - The military sector saw significant gains, with stocks like Jieqiang Equipment and Beifang Changlong rising over 10% [12][13]. - Other sectors that performed well include cement, gas, and consumer goods, with notable increases in their respective indices [3]. Technology Sector Decline - The technology sector faced a broad sell-off, with major stocks like SMIC and Cambrian Technology experiencing declines of 7.89% and 8.23%, respectively [4][7]. - The adjustment in financing rates for several A-share stocks in the semiconductor sector has been interpreted as a signal to reduce leverage in these high-flying stocks [6][10]. Gold and Precious Metals - The precious metals sector also faced declines, with West Gold down 9.09% and other gold-related stocks following suit [7][8]. - Factors contributing to the drop include profit-taking by investors and external geopolitical developments [9]. Military Industry Outlook - The military sector is expected to enter a new growth cycle, driven by increased orders and a favorable geopolitical environment, with projections indicating a potential 30% growth in military trade by 2025 [16][23]. - The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to provide clearer development guidance for the military industry, enhancing overall market sentiment [24]. Investment Opportunities - The military sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, with many companies trading at attractive valuations relative to expected demand recovery from 2025 to 2027 [25]. - Structural opportunities in military trade, new technologies, and asset restructuring are identified as core investment themes moving forward [24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the defense and military industry [5] Core Insights - The defense and military sector is expected to see a recovery in demand as the adverse effects of personnel adjustments have been largely eliminated, with a clear long-term growth trajectory supported by national defense modernization goals set for 2035 and 2050 [3][38] - The recent successful electromagnetic catapult and recovery training of three aircraft types on the Fujian aircraft carrier marks a significant milestone in China's naval transformation and highlights the potential for investment opportunities in electromagnetic launch technology [2][37] - The low-altitude economy is entering a phase of accelerated commercialization, driven by policy support and new product development, making it a sector worth monitoring [3][36] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shenwan Defense and Military Index fell by 0.42% last week, ranking 13th among 31 Shenwan primary industries, while the overall market indices showed positive growth [1][13] - The current PE (TTM) for the defense and military sector is 84.84 times, with aerospace equipment at 166.50 times and military electronics at 109.04 times [21][22] Key Recommendations - Recommended companies include: 1. Downstream manufacturers: AVIC Chengfei, Hongdu Aviation, AVIC Shenyang, AVIC Xifei 2. New military technologies: Lianchuang Optoelectronics, Guangqi Technology, Zhongjian Technology 3. Underwater equipment: Yaxing Anchor Chain, Zhongke Haixun, Changying Tong 4. Missile industry chain: Feilihua, Guoke Military Industry, Zhongbing Hongjian 5. Military titanium materials: Western Superconducting 6. Electronic components: Hongyuan Electronics, Aerospace Electric [4][40][41][42][43][44][45][46] Industry Dynamics - The low-altitude economy is gaining traction with recent developments in regulatory frameworks and strategic partnerships, indicating a robust growth potential [32][34][36] - The defense sector is poised for improvement as military orders begin to recover, with a focus on new domains and new quality capabilities such as drones and commercial aerospace [38][39]

Group 1 - The third integrated capability construction and advanced technology achievement transformation docking conference was held in Baotou on September 11, focusing on "demand-driven, precise docking, and open integration" [1] - The conference aimed to build a military-civilian cooperation exchange platform, promote policy implementation, facilitate industrial project docking, and achieve supply-demand matching results through a "1+3" conference model [1] - A total of 890 docking demands were formed during the conference, including 564 advanced technology achievements, 220 procurement intentions, 31 research cooperation projects, and 75 financial products, with 37 cooperation items being released and signed on-site [1] Group 2 - The conference expanded its docking fields compared to previous sessions, adding sectors such as nuclear energy, biomedicine, communication networks, artificial intelligence, and low-altitude equipment, covering both traditional advantageous industries and strategic emerging industries in the autonomous region [2] - The docking area has gradually expanded from within the region to nationwide, with more precise docking content transitioning from technical exchanges and product promotions to technology sharing, product co-research, and industrial co-construction [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, considering its business expansion and growth potential [4][6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 860 million yuan in 1H25, representing a year-over-year increase of 20.2%, and a net profit of 12 million yuan, up 93% year-over-year, aligning with market expectations [1]. - The improvement in profitability is evident with a gross margin increase of 3.0 percentage points to 18.3% in 1H25, and a net margin increase of 0.6 percentage points to 1.5% [1]. - The company is expanding its product lines into humanoid robots and robotic dogs, while also solidifying its core business in defense systems and optical information equipment [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company reported a net profit of 12 million yuan, a significant increase from a loss of 1 million yuan in 1H24 [1]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 550 million yuan, a 14.2% increase year-over-year and an 81.1% increase quarter-over-quarter [1]. - The gross margin for 1H25 was 18.3%, with a net margin of 1.5%, indicating improved profitability [1]. Business Segments - Defense segment: The subsidiary Xiguang Defense generated revenue of 435 million yuan, up 24.23% year-over-year, although it reported a net loss of 5.45 million yuan due to lower gross margins [2]. - Optical materials and components: The subsidiary Xinhua Light achieved revenue of 444 million yuan, a 12.35% increase year-over-year, with a net profit of 10.32 million yuan, up 297.21% [2]. - Robotics: The company launched a multi-modal perception head for humanoid robots and has completed the development of a perception subsystem for a humanoid robot [2]. Research and Development - The company has increased its R&D expenditure, with the R&D expense ratio rising to 6.5% in 1H25 [3]. - New projects in emerging fields have been successfully bid, laying a foundation for future business growth [2]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - The company reported a negative operating cash flow of 100 million yuan in 1H25, compared to a positive cash flow of 70 million yuan in 1H24, primarily due to increased cash purchases of production materials [3]. - Accounts receivable and inventory increased, with accounts receivable at 1.36 billion yuan and inventory at 760 million yuan, reflecting a 25.1% increase year-to-date [3].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a collective rebound on August 20, driven by strong performance in the military industry sector, particularly the aerospace segment, following a government announcement regarding upcoming military parades showcasing advanced domestic weaponry [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The aerospace ETF (159227) rose over 1% with a trading volume of 145 million yuan, making it the top performer in its category [1] - Key stocks such as Guangqi Technology surged over 9%, with other companies like Hitec High-tech, Steel Research High-tech, and Aviation Development Technology also showing significant gains [1] Group 2: Government Announcement - A press conference held by the State Council on August 20 introduced details about the military parade, highlighting that all showcased weaponry is domestically produced and represents the latest generation of military equipment [1] - The parade will feature advanced systems including new fighter jets, unmanned intelligent systems, hypersonic technology, and strategic missiles [1] Group 3: Industry Insights - The aerospace ETF tracks the Guozheng Aerospace Index, with a high concentration of 97.86% in the military industry, focusing on the aerospace sector [1] - The index includes leading companies across the entire supply chain, covering fighter jets, transport aircraft, helicopters, and missile systems, aligning with the strategic direction of "integrated aerospace" [1] - According to Zheshang Securities, ongoing geopolitical conflicts are expected to enhance the valuation of China's defense and military enterprises, particularly in the military trade sector [1]

Group 1 - The A-share market indices continued to rise on August 19, with the defense and military industry experiencing a pullback, leading in declines [1] - The Aerospace ETF (159227) saw a decline of 1.39% with a transaction volume of 49.42 million yuan, maintaining its position as the largest in its category [1] - Since July, the Aerospace ETF has attracted over 544 million yuan in net inflows, reaching a total size of 937 million yuan, making it the largest aerospace ETF in the market [1] Group 2 - On August 17, China successfully launched the Internet Low Earth Orbit 09 satellite group using the Long March 6A rocket from the Taiyuan Satellite Launch Center, marking a successful mission [1] - The Aerospace ETF closely tracks the National Aerospace Index, focusing on core areas of military and aerospace, with a high concentration in the defense sector, where the first-level military industry accounts for 97.86% [1] - The weight of aerospace equipment in the ETF's constituent stocks is 66.8%, significantly surpassing that of the CSI Military and CSI Defense indices, highlighting the increasing importance of aerospace power in modern warfare [1] Group 3 - According to Zheshang Securities, geopolitical conflicts are expected to persist in 2025, providing practical testing for China's military trade export equipment in overseas conflicts [2] - The military trade sector is anticipated to lead to a revaluation of China's defense and military enterprises, with a focus on military trade, new domains, and restructuring as the main themes in the second half of 2025 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The aerospace and defense sector in the A-share market is experiencing fluctuations, with the Aerospace ETF showing significant trading activity and a notable increase in fund inflows, indicating strong investor interest in military-related stocks [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of August 7, the three major A-share indices showed slight fluctuations, with the aerospace and defense sector experiencing a pullback [1]. - The Aerospace ETF (159227) narrowed its decline to 0.74% by 14:54, with a trading volume of 150 million yuan, maintaining its position as the top performer among similar funds [1]. - The Aerospace ETF has achieved a record high in size, reaching 847 million yuan, making it the largest in its category [2]. Group 2: Fund Inflows and Trading Activity - Over the past five trading days, the Aerospace ETF saw net inflows on four occasions, totaling 56.09 million yuan [3]. - The ETF recorded a turnover rate of 17.47% during the trading session, with a total transaction value of 1.47 billion yuan, indicating active market participation [1]. Group 3: Index Performance and Strategic Focus - The Aerospace ETF tracks the Guozheng Aerospace Index, which has a high concentration of 97.86% in the defense industry, focusing on the aerospace sector [3]. - From July 31, 2024, to July 31, 2025, the Guozheng Aerospace Index is projected to yield a return of 37.28%, outperforming other military indices [3]. - The company believes that geopolitical conflicts in 2025 will provide practical testing for China's military export equipment, leading to a potential revaluation of domestic defense and military enterprises [3].

Group 1 - A-shares opened lower on July 31, but the defense and military industry saw a rebound, with the Aerospace ETF (159227) experiencing active trading and a transaction volume of 24.95 million yuan by 9:50 AM, ranking first among its peers [1] - The Aerospace ETF has attracted over 400 million yuan in capital since July, reaching a new high of 760 million yuan in total assets [1] - The upcoming Army Day and the military parade on September 3 have increased market attention on the defense and military industry, with a recovery in demand and orders since 2025, leading to a shift in institutional allocation towards the sector after ten consecutive quarters of reduction [1] Group 2 - Zhejiang Securities predicts that ongoing geopolitical conflicts in 2025 will provide practical testing for China's military trade exports, potentially leading to a revaluation of domestic defense and military enterprises [2] - The focus for the second half of 2025 will be on military trade, new domains and qualities, and restructuring as the three main lines in the defense and military sector [2]

Group 1 - The defense and military industry sector is experiencing adjustments, with the defense military ETF (512810) showing fluctuations, including a drop of over 1% before narrowing its losses [1] - The ETF has seen significant inflows, with over 1.68 billion yuan invested in the past 10 days, indicating strong bullish sentiment despite recent declines [1] - Among the 80 constituent stocks of the ETF, most have declined, with notable drops including Changcheng Military Industry down nearly 7% and Guorui Technology down over 3% [1] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the upcoming mid-year report season may bring uncertainty regarding the performance of previously high-profile stocks, leading to potential short-term differentiation [3] - Huafu Securities maintains a bullish outlook on the sector, while Zhonghang Securities believes the defense military industry is in a state with ample upward potential and limited downside risk [3] - Zhejiang Merchants Securities highlights three main investment themes for the defense military sector by 2025: military trade, new domains and qualities, and restructuring [3] Group 3 - The defense military ETF (512810) has undergone a share split, reducing the trading threshold from approximately 120 yuan to around 60 yuan, making it more accessible for investors [4]