证券研究报告 航天军工 美以袭击伊朗使安全局势进一步恶化 华泰研究 2026 年 3 月 01 日│中国内地 行业周报（第九周） 本周观点：美以袭击伊朗使安全局势进一步恶化 2 月 28 日，美国和以色列宣布，已从空中和海上对伊朗发起打击。新华社 2 月 28 日报道，据以色列媒体报道，在 2 月 28 日以色列和美国对伊朗的军事打击中，以方 率先发动袭击"清除威胁"，美军随即全力跟进，形成协同作战模式。美国总统特朗 普在社交媒体发布的视频中称，伊朗正在研制威胁美国的远程导弹，此次袭击要摧 毁伊朗的导弹工业，消灭伊朗海军，并确保伊朗不能获得核武器。 国际安全形势变化促使全球军费扩张。世界进入新的动荡变革期，近几年，全球进 入二战结束以来军事冲突最多的时期，俄乌、巴以、印巴、以伊等局部冲突不断， 国际安全局势的复杂性与不确定性显著上升，美国、欧盟、日本等国家和地区大幅 提升国防预算。我国军贸有望在"十五五"期间获得较快发展，市占率有望提升。 军贸市场相关上市公司包括：中航沈飞、中航成飞、国睿科技、航天南湖、航天彩 虹、中无人机、晶品特装等；具有防化产品业务的相关上市公司包括北化股份等。 中长期观点：关注新装备建 ...

2月25日，军工ETF（512660）收涨近2%，市场聚焦商业航天与装备升级 华泰证券指出，展望"十五五"，国防和军队现代化将实现高质量推进，实现由"量"的增值转向"质"的提 升。我军装备需求有望在总量稳中有增的情况下出现显著的结构性机会，新增量或将出现在"十五五"规 划建议中提到的新域新质、无人智能与反制、先进武器以及低成本装备等方面。在商业航天领域，可回 收火箭的进展是重要催化，随着我国可回收火箭逐渐成熟，发射运力提升将带来发射成本持续下降，有 利于卫星公司提升产能进而加速组网进度，缩短卫星的发射入轨周期，卫星产业链和运载火箭制造产业 链有望受益。 军工ETF（512660）跟踪的是中证军工指数（399967），该指数从沪深市场中选取十大军工集团控股且 主营业务与军工行业相关的上市公司，以及其他代表性军工企业作为指数样本，以反映军工行业整体表 现。指数成分股覆盖航空、航天、船舶、兵器等军工核心领域，行业分布主要集中于工业、原材料、信 息技术等板块，整体呈现中小盘风格。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

成份股表现上，海兰信冲高15%后回落，现涨逾5%；中船系龙头多股走强，昨日涨停股中国动力续涨 4%，股价创逾5年新高！下跌方面，三角防务、航发控制重挫4%居前。 消息面，海兰信近期因中标海上火箭回收指挥测控船项目（金额4.58亿元）及"内河船舶端云融合智能 航行系统"获科技进步一等奖，引发市场关注。 | 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | 估算权重 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 成交额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 300065 | 海兰信 | 1.13% | 29.15 | 5.88% | 61.13亿 | | 2 | 300395 | 非利率 | 1.69% | 99.93 | 4.26% | 35.81 亿 | | 3 | 600482 | 中国动力 | 1.93% | 31.05 | 4.02% | 30.09亿 | | प | 000801 | 四川九洲 | 0.57% | 16.59 | 2.60% | 5.99 Z | | ਦੇ | 600685 | 中船防务 | 0.79% | 34.28 | 2.11% | 10.12亿 | ...

2月10日，军工板块早盘V字回升翻红，午后维持红盘震荡。高人气军工ETF华宝（512810）量能异动 引发关注，截至发稿，场内成交额超1亿元，较昨日全天暴增逾150%！结合场内高频溢价来看，或有巨 量资金介入。 成份股表现上，分化较为显著，航锦科技、中国动力涨停，应流股份续涨逾6%再创历史新高。下跌方 面，航天南湖、航天发展等商业航天热门股重挫居前。 成份股表现上，分化较为显著，航锦科技、中国动力涨停，应流股份续涨逾6%再创历史新高。下跌方 面，航天南湖、航天发展等商业航天热门股重挫居前。 华泰证券2月9日发布《航天军工行业周报（第六周）：重视国际军贸投资机遇》表示，国际安全形势不 确定性增强，重视军贸发展机遇。展望"十五五"，国防和军队现代化将实现高质量推进，实现由"量"的 增值转向"质"的提升。我们认为，"十五五"期间，我军装备需求将有望在总量稳中有增的情况下出现显 著的结构性机会，新增量或将出现在"十五五"规划建议中提到的新域新质、无人智能与反制、先进武器 以及低成本装备等方面，建议关注军工新产品和新市场两条主线。 【投军工，选"八一"】代码有"八一"的军工ETF华宝（512810）（原国防军工ETF） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aerospace and defense sector [8] Core Insights - The aerospace and defense industry is expected to experience significant recovery and growth in 2025, with 30 out of 75 listed companies forecasting positive earnings growth compared to the previous year [11][12] - The report highlights structural opportunities in military equipment demand during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on new domains, unmanned systems, advanced weaponry, and low-cost equipment [14][16] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - As of January 31, 2025, 75 out of 120 listed companies in the defense sector have disclosed earnings forecasts, with 30 companies expecting positive growth, 7 expecting positive but declining growth, 17 expecting losses but reduced compared to the previous year, and 21 expecting increased losses [11][12] Key Companies to Watch - Recommended companies include: - AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (600760 CH) - Guorui Technology (600562 CH) - Steel Research (300797 CH) - Guotai Group (603977 CH) - West Superconductor (688122 CH) - Ruichuang Micro-Nano (688002 CH) - Beifang Navigation (600435 CH) - Gaode Infrared (002414 CH) - Aerospace Intelligence (300446 CH) - Aerospace Rainbow (002389 CH) [3][8][9] Earnings Forecasts - Notable companies with significant earnings growth forecasts include: - Beimo High-Tech: 1169% growth due to product delivery and cost reduction [12] - Hailanxin: 509% growth from increased self-produced products [12] - *ST Chengchang: 452% growth driven by industry recovery [12] - Zhimin Da: 414% growth from increased demand in previously established product lines [12] - Aileda: 351% growth from increased military and civilian product demand [12] Long-term Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of new equipment construction cycles and suggests focusing on new products and markets during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [14][16] - The military trade market is expected to grow, with China aiming to increase its market share in global military trade [17] Market Trends - The report notes a decline in the defense sector index by 7.69% over the past week, underperforming the broader market [28] - The current PE (TTM) for the defense sector is 95.23, indicating a high valuation compared to historical levels [36] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that companies involved in unmanned systems, low-cost munitions, and military AI are likely to see significant growth opportunities [16][18] - The commercial aerospace sector is also highlighted as a growing area, with advancements in satellite internet and low-altitude economy [18][25]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the active role of representatives in connecting schools, families, and communities to enhance children's safety and development [3] - The representatives shared their experiences and insights from their duties, highlighting the importance of being proactive rather than reactive in their roles [3][4] - The article discusses the transformation of education in Beijing towards "new domains and new qualities" by 2025, as illustrated by the initiatives taken by representatives [3] Group 2 - Representative Bai Qun, a non-material cultural heritage inheritor, emphasized the need for increased support for non-state museums and the protection of intangible cultural heritage [4] - Bai Qun proposed enhancing community engagement through free museum visits to foster cultural appreciation among residents [4] - Representative Zhai Yanwei focused on legislative efforts for the protection of the Great Wall, advocating for a shift from emergency protection to preventive and research-based conservation [5][6] Group 3 - Representative Li Renxing is actively involved in promoting renewable energy and carbon neutrality initiatives, submitting multiple proposals to support the application of renewable energy in Beijing [6][7] - Li's suggestions include promoting hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in urban logistics and advocating for the construction of zero-carbon parks [6][7] - The proposals aim to contribute to a green, clean, and low-carbon energy system in alignment with national strategies [6]

Core Viewpoint - The aerospace industry is expected to maintain its prosperity through 2026, driven by the resonance of domestic and international demand, with new domains and qualities likely to release elasticity, benefiting from the development of commercial aerospace and special technology spillover [1][2]. Group 1: Domestic and International Demand - The "14th Five-Year Plan" and special trade demand are expected to create a resonance that sustains industry prosperity [1]. - In 2024, global defense spending is projected to increase by 9.4% to $2.72 trillion, driven by complex geopolitical situations, which will enhance the demand for special equipment [1]. - China's share in the global special equipment market is anticipated to steadily increase, contributing to industry growth and profitability [1]. Group 2: New Domains and Qualities - The end of the "14th Five-Year Plan" will see the emergence of new types of equipment, with the "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizing the integration of mechanization, information technology, and intelligence [2]. - New domain and quality equipment are expected to become key areas of focus in equipment construction, with significant demand anticipated to be released [2]. Group 3: Technological Spillover and Emerging Fields - The production and delivery capabilities of domestic large aircraft are expected to continue improving by 2026, driving upgrades in the aviation industry chain [3]. - The satellite internet space segment is entering a phase of normalized networking, with the industrialization process in the application phase expected to accelerate by 2026 [3]. - The low-altitude economy is gradually moving into the implementation stage, with high-quality development expected to continue through 2026 [3]. Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The valuation center for the sector is expected to rise, leading to a 23.8% increase in the target price for China Satellite to 52.2 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 6.6% [4]. - The company recommends focusing on new domains and qualities, core special trade targets, and new productivity benefiting from special technology spillover [4]. - Recommended stocks include Chujiang New Materials (002171.SZ), Aerospace Electronics (600879.SH), Feilihua (300395.SZ), AVIC Shenyang Aircraft (660760.SH), Guorui Technology (600562.SH), China Satellite (600118.SH), Zhenlei Technology (688270.SH), and Fudan Microelectronics (688385.SH) [4].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated positively, with expectations of overall returns exceeding the CSI 300 Index by more than 5% in the next six months [42]. Core Insights - The U.S. Department of Defense plans to invest $1 billion to procure over 300,000 suicide drones over the next two years, marking a significant shift towards low-cost unmanned systems for modern warfare [3][15]. - China's defense budget has consistently increased by around 7%, with defense spending as a percentage of GDP remaining below 1.5%, indicating substantial growth potential in the future [4][9]. - The structure of China's defense spending is expected to shift towards new domains and qualities, with military trade exports likely to open up larger market opportunities [4][9]. Summary by Sections Industry Insights - China's defense spending is projected to grow at a rate approximately 2 percentage points higher than GDP growth in the long term, driven by the evolution of modern warfare towards information and intelligence [4][9]. - The industry is anticipated to enter a rapid development phase driven by both domestic demand and foreign trade, with a focus on next-generation fighter jets, low-cost munitions, unmanned equipment, commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, and deep-sea technology [4][9]. Market Performance - The Aerospace and Defense Index increased by 5.01% this week, while the CSI 300 Index rose by 1.53%. For the month, the Aerospace and Defense Index saw a 2.26% increase, contrasting with a 1.48% decline in the CSI 300 Index [10]. Industry News - The U.S. Navy is expanding its mine warfare training range in Hawaii, modernizing facilities to align with future conflicts and the latest weaponry [17]. - Germany's Bundestag passed a bill to modernize its conscription system, aiming to expand the military's size in response to European security challenges [18]. - The Iranian Revolutionary Guard conducted military exercises in the Persian Gulf, showcasing new defense and offensive capabilities [19]. - Blue Arrow Aerospace successfully launched the Zhuque-3 rocket, marking a significant milestone in China's reusable rocket technology [20]. Company Tracking - Huawu Co., Ltd. reported a reduction in shareholding by its controlling shareholder, impacting the overall ownership structure [22]. - Chaojie Co., Ltd. also experienced a reduction in shareholding by its major shareholder, indicating ongoing changes in ownership dynamics [24]. - North Industries Group announced a plan to reduce its shareholding by up to 3% due to funding needs [25].

Group 1 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" marks a significant advancement in military construction, establishing a new military structure of "4 services + 4 branches" and achieving a leap in weaponry development, with military industrial companies' revenue reaching 419.43 billion yuan in 2024, a 25.24% increase from 2020 [1][19] - The military industrial sector's revenue growth is supported by the delivery of new generation weapons, with 119 listed military companies reporting a total revenue of 280.18 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.23% [1][19] - The fixed assets of 119 military industrial companies reached 167.15 billion yuan by the end of Q3 2025, a 53.45% increase from the end of 2020, indicating enhanced research and production capabilities [1][19] Group 2 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to shift the focus from quantity to quality in military modernization, emphasizing high-quality development and structural opportunities in new domains such as unmanned intelligence and advanced weaponry [2][34] - The military's equipment demand is anticipated to grow steadily, with significant opportunities in new domains and qualities, including low-cost equipment and advanced weaponry, as outlined in the "15th Five-Year Plan" [2][36] - The military industrial sector is advised to focus on new generation traditional equipment and new domain capabilities, with recommendations for companies involved in unmanned systems, ground robots, and military AI [3][4] Group 3 - The military trade market is expected to grow rapidly, with China's military trade market share at only 5.87% compared to the US's 42.64%, indicating significant room for growth [4] - The application of military technology in strategic emerging industries presents vast market opportunities, with recommendations to focus on commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, deep-sea technology, and nuclear energy [4] - Key companies to watch in the military trade market include AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, Guorui Technology, and Aerospace Rainbow, while companies in military technology applications include Zhenlei Technology and Aerospace Electronics [4]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a style switch, with significant declines in technology sectors like semiconductors and storage chips, while military, public utilities, and traditional consumer sectors are showing strong gains, particularly the military sector which rose nearly 5% [2][4][10]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - Major A-share indices have weakened, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.94%, the Shenzhen Component down 2.7%, and the ChiNext Index down 4.55%, marking the largest single-day decline in nearly six months [2]. - The military sector has emerged as a strong performer, contributing to most of the limit-up stocks on the day [2]. Sector Analysis - The military sector saw significant gains, with stocks like Jieqiang Equipment and Beifang Changlong rising over 10% [12][13]. - Other sectors that performed well include cement, gas, and consumer goods, with notable increases in their respective indices [3]. Technology Sector Decline - The technology sector faced a broad sell-off, with major stocks like SMIC and Cambrian Technology experiencing declines of 7.89% and 8.23%, respectively [4][7]. - The adjustment in financing rates for several A-share stocks in the semiconductor sector has been interpreted as a signal to reduce leverage in these high-flying stocks [6][10]. Gold and Precious Metals - The precious metals sector also faced declines, with West Gold down 9.09% and other gold-related stocks following suit [7][8]. - Factors contributing to the drop include profit-taking by investors and external geopolitical developments [9]. Military Industry Outlook - The military sector is expected to enter a new growth cycle, driven by increased orders and a favorable geopolitical environment, with projections indicating a potential 30% growth in military trade by 2025 [16][23]. - The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to provide clearer development guidance for the military industry, enhancing overall market sentiment [24]. Investment Opportunities - The military sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, with many companies trading at attractive valuations relative to expected demand recovery from 2025 to 2027 [25]. - Structural opportunities in military trade, new technologies, and asset restructuring are identified as core investment themes moving forward [24].