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太阳纸业(002078):2025Q3点评:经营显韧性,南宁项目投产叠加旺季来临,看好Q4业绩改善
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-02 11:41
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 28.936 billion yuan, net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.500 billion yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 2.471 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, showing a year-on-year change of -7%, +2%, and -5% respectively. In Q3 2025, the revenue was 9.823 billion yuan, net profit attributable to shareholders was 720 million yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items was 707 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -6%, +3%, and -9% respectively [2][4][5]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1 yuan per 10 shares to all shareholders, totaling 279 million yuan [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the main reason for the decline in net profit was the drop in profitability of cultural paper, with prices for copperplate and double-glue paper decreasing by 500 yuan/ton (-9.3%) and 338 yuan/ton (-6.6%) respectively compared to Q2 2025. The decline in paper prices was attributed to a seasonal demand slump and oversupply in the cultural paper segment [5][6]. - The profitability of boxboard paper remained stable due to rising raw material prices, while the profitability of dissolving pulp and externally sold wood pulp was expected to remain stable as well [5][6]. Market Outlook - The fourth quarter is expected to see improved performance due to the launch of the Nanning project and seasonal demand recovery. The company has new production capacity planned, including 1 million tons of boxboard paper and 400,000 tons of specialty paper, which will contribute to increased production and sales in Q4 2025 [10]. - The overall paper industry is anticipated to enter an upward cycle as new capacity pressures ease and demand stabilizes, with the company expected to achieve net profits of 3.4 billion, 3.9 billion, and 4.3 billion yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to PE ratios of 12, 10, and 9 times [10].