造纸 业绩符合预期，披露新产能规划稳健成长 ——太阳纸业 25H1 点评 太阳纸业（002078.SZ） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 08 月 29 日 | 评级： | 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2023A | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：张潇 | | 营业收入（百万元） | 39,544 | | 40,727 | 41,435 | 44,164 | 46,084 | | | | 增长率 yoy% | -1% | | 3% | 2% | 7% | 4% | | 执业证书编号：S0740523030001 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 3,086 | | 3,101 | 3,505 | 3,924 | 4,329 | | Email：zhangxiao06@zts.com.cn | | 增长率 yoy% | 10% | | 1% | 13% | 12% | 10% | | ...

太阳纸业 20250828 摘要 太阳纸业在 2025 年上半年的业绩表现如何？目前市场环境对公司的影响有哪 些？ 太阳纸业在 2025 年上半年取得了稳健的成绩，表现明显高于行业平均水平。 尽管市场整体体量和价格均不愿意下降，公司依然通过成本优势和产能扩张保 持了竞争力。二季度纸价偏弱运行，主要受到新产能投放和市场需求变化的矛 盾影响，尤其是在 6 月至 8 月的淡季期间，价格回到了历史最低值。然而，自 8 月份起，浆价开始企稳并略有复苏，从原来的 500 元以内反弹至 510-520 元。这一反弹主要由于针叶浆价差缩小、海外停机检修及限供措施等因素。此 外，国内制浆企业成本也有小幅反弹迹象，如能源、煤炭及木片价格上涨，这 为未来纸价上涨提供了一定基础。 山东化学浆新增 60 万吨产能将优化浆纸平衡，减少近 50 万吨采购量， 降低鲜姜使用、打姜、烘干及运输成本，提高能源平衡效率，从而降低 整体生产成本，提高自供比例及盈利能力。 上市公司层面木浆自供率目前在 60%-65%之间，随着新项目投产，自 供比例预计将达到 70%以上，增强定价权，一体化优势明显。 未来几个月文化纸和箱板纸的价格走势如何？ 从目前情 ...

公司研究 二季度毛利率环比提升，带动单季度利润超预期 ——太阳纸业（002078.SZ）2025 年半年报点评 买入（维持） 2025 年 8 月 28 日 当前价：14.60 元 作者 分析师：姜浩 执业证书编号：S0930522010001 021-52523680 jianghao@ebscn.com 分析师：吴子倩 执业证书编号：S0930525070004 021-52523872 wuziqian@ebscn.com 市场数据 | 总股本(亿股) | 27.95 | | --- | --- | | 总市值(亿元)： | 408.00 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 11.32/16.16 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 37.94% | 股价相对走势 -10% 1% 13% 24% 35% 08/24 11/24 03/25 06/25 太阳纸业 沪深300 | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | % | 1M | 3M | 1Y | | 相对 | -3.24 | -8.60 | -9.76 | | 绝对 | 2.82 | 5.74 | 23.70 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the resilience of viscose short fiber demand despite tariff disputes, with projected consumption growth in 2023 and 2024, and a minimal decline in H1 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Consumption and Demand - The apparent consumption of viscose short fiber is projected to be 3.81 million tons in 2023 and 4.09 million tons in 2024, representing year-on-year increases of 9.74% and 7.28% respectively [1][2]. - In H1 2025, the apparent consumption is expected to be 1.96 million tons, with a slight year-on-year decline of only 1.00%, indicating strong demand resilience [1][2]. Group 2: Technology and Market Trends - The rapid development of vortex spinning technology is anticipated to drive continued growth in viscose short fiber demand, with its market share expected to increase from 10% to 25% [2]. - Vortex spinning technology is particularly suited for chemical fibers, showing significant achievements, although it faces challenges in natural fiber applications [2]. Group 3: Production Capacity and Utilization - Effective production capacity for viscose short fiber is projected at 5.07 million tons in 2023 and 4.885 million tons in 2024, with capacity utilization rates of 77.1% and 84.3% respectively [3]. - As of June 2025, nominal capacity is expected to be 5.16 million tons, with effective capacity at 4.935 million tons and a utilization rate of 81.5% [3]. - The industry is characterized by high concentration, with the top three companies holding a combined market share of 69.77% [3]. Group 4: Inventory and Pricing Trends - As of August 8, 2025, the inventory level for viscose short fiber is reported at 169,700 tons, equating to only 10.9 days of supply, indicating a low inventory level historically [4][5]. - The industry operating rate is at a high of 85.9%, and prices for viscose short fiber have shown an upward trend, with a recent price increase of approximately 150 yuan per ton [5]. Group 5: Market Outlook - The upcoming peak seasons for textile and apparel, along with a temporary suspension of tariffs, are expected to boost demand for viscose short fiber [5]. - The report recommends focusing on companies like Sanyou Chemical, which are likely to benefit from these market dynamics [6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The demand for viscose staple fiber is expected to continue growing due to rapid development in vortex spinning technology, with apparent consumption projected at 3.81 million tons in 2023 and 4.09 million tons in 2024, reflecting year-on-year growth of 9.74% and 7.28% respectively [5] - The viscose staple fiber industry has maintained a tight supply-demand balance, with capacity utilization rates above 80% and limited new capacity additions since 2022 [6] - The price of viscose staple fiber has shown resilience despite a decline in raw material prices, with recent price increases of approximately 150 CNY per ton [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The viscose staple fiber industry is characterized by a high concentration, with the top three companies holding a combined market share of 69.77% [6] - The industry has seen limited new capacity additions, with only one planned project expected to come online in 2026 [6] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The apparent consumption of viscose staple fiber in the first half of 2025 is projected at 1.96 million tons, with a minor year-on-year decline of 1.00%, indicating strong demand resilience [5] - The industry has experienced a high operating rate of 85.9% as of August 2025, with inventory levels at a historical low of 10.9 days [6] Price Trends - The price gap between viscose staple fiber and its raw materials has been expanding, with viscose prices remaining firm despite fluctuations in raw material costs [6][9] - The recent suspension of tariffs between the US and China is expected to boost demand for viscose staple fiber in the upcoming peak seasons [6] Recommended Stocks - Recommended stock: Sanyou Chemical; Beneficiary stock: Zhongtai Chemical [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the paper and light industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The light manufacturing industry index increased by 3.02%, outperforming the market by 1.02 percentage points, with the paper sub-sector rising by 2.17%, also surpassing the market by 0.16 percentage points [2][13] - The report highlights that the cultural paper sector is entering an off-peak season, leading to a decline in pulp and paper prices [4] - The report recommends leading companies in the integrated forest-pulp-paper industry, such as Sun Paper (002078, Buy), and suggests focusing on leading special paper companies like Xianhe Co. (603733, Buy) and Huawang Technology (605377, Buy) [4] Summary by Sections Market Review - The light manufacturing industry index rose by 3.02%, while the paper sub-sector increased by 2.17%, ranking 9th among 28 first-level industries [2][13][20] Industry Chain Data Tracking - The report notes a decline in wood pulp product prices, with domestic waste prices slightly increasing by 1.5 CNY/ton, while foreign waste prices decreased by 5-10 USD/ton [9][24] - The average market price for finished paper products saw declines: double glue paper down by 38 CNY/ton, copper plate paper down by 45 CNY/ton, and white card paper down by 48 CNY/ton [39][40][42] Profitability Levels - Profitability in cultural paper is diverging, with small paper companies seeing an increase of 25 CNY/ton in double glue paper, while large companies experienced a decrease of 43 CNY/ton [48][49] - The profitability of packaging paper is declining, with white card paper profitability down by 20-48 CNY/ton [48][51] Production Data - The cumulative production of mechanical paper and paperboard in the first quarter of 2025 reached 38.19 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [57] - The report indicates that the import volume of paper and paperboard decreased by 8.2% year-on-year, while the export volume increased by 10.7% [57]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for leading companies in the integrated pulp and paper industry, specifically recommending Sun Paper (002078) and others [4]. Core Viewpoints - The light industry manufacturing index increased by 0.17%, outperforming the market by 0.61 percentage points, while the paper sub-sector declined by 1.34%, underperforming the market by 0.91 percentage points [2][12]. - The report highlights a seasonal downturn in cultural paper, with falling pulp prices, and anticipates a gradual improvement in overall supply and demand in the industry by 2025 [4]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The light industry manufacturing index ranked 9th among 28 first-level industries, with the paper sub-sector showing a decline [12][18]. - The four major sub-sectors of light industry, ranked by growth, are packaging printing, cultural products, furniture, and paper, with respective increases of 1.07%, 1.03%, 0.07%, and a decrease of 1.34% in the paper sector [12][16]. Industry Chain Data Tracking - Pulp prices have decreased, with domestic waste paper prices down by 7 CNY/ton, and various paper products also seeing price reductions [9][22]. - The report notes that the cumulative production of mechanical paper and paperboard in the first quarter of 2025 increased by 3.8% year-on-year, totaling 38.19 million tons [53][55]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the integrated pulp and paper sector, such as Sun Paper (002078), Xianhe Shares (603733), Huawang Technology (605377), and Wuzhou Special Paper (605007) [4]. - For waste paper products, it suggests investing in Jiu Long Paper (02689) and Shanying International (600567) due to expected improvements in supply and demand dynamics [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported Q1 2025 performance with revenue of 9.898 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.82%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.886 billion yuan, down 7.32%, exceeding market expectations mainly due to price increases in cultural paper and cost control [1] Financial Performance - Q1 2025 paper profit recovery: Average prices for double glue paper, copper plate paper, and box board paper increased by 122, 211, and 65 yuan per ton respectively compared to the previous quarter, while inventory pulp costs declined, indicating a recovery in paper profit, particularly in cultural paper [1] - Stable external pulp sales: The company's external pulp capacity remained stable at 1.44 million tons for 2023-2024, primarily serving the group with stable consumption and minimal profit fluctuations [1] - High capital expenditure: Operating cash flow for Q1 2025 was 0.124 billion yuan, down 79% year-on-year, with capital expenditure at 1.97 billion yuan as the Guangxi base is in a peak expansion phase; the debt-to-asset ratio stands at 46% [1] Development Trends - Optimistic outlook for Q2 2025 performance: As of April 23, 2025, average prices for double glue paper and copper plate paper were 5,775 and 6,071 yuan per ton, showing a slight decrease and increase respectively compared to Q1 2025; the cultural paper market is in a traditional peak season, but price increases may be limited due to rapid declines in pulp prices [2] - Expected completion of dissolving pulp relocation in May, which is anticipated to leverage regional advantages in Guangxi, further reducing costs and enhancing production and sales levels [2] Strategic Initiatives - Three major bases working in synergy: The Laos base is focused on rapid afforestation, aiming to add over 10,000 hectares annually; the Guangxi base is expected to complete projects by the end of 2025, producing 1 million tons of high-end packaging paper and 150,000 tons of household paper; the Shandong base plans to trial production of 37,000 tons of specialty paper by April 2025 [3] - Long-term cost advantages are expected to be realized through overseas land reserves, with potential for resource-based asset revaluation [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its profit forecast, with current prices corresponding to P/E ratios of 12.5x and 11.7x for 2025-2026; the target price remains at 18 yuan, implying a 27% upside potential based on P/E ratios of 16x and 15x for the same period [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the paper and light industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The light manufacturing industry index increased by 1.92%, outperforming the market by 1.53 percentage points, with the paper sub-sector rising by 2.14%, exceeding the market by 1.76 percentage points [2][12] - The report highlights a downward trend in pulp prices, with Chilean hardwood pulp prices dropping to $560 per ton, a decrease of $70 per ton, and softwood pulp prices at $770 per ton, down by $55 per ton [4][23] - The report suggests that the industry is entering a seasonal downturn, leading to a reduction in pulp costs, and recommends leading companies in the integrated forest-pulp-paper sector such as Sun Paper (002078, Buy) [4] - The report anticipates a significant slowdown in the growth of new supply in the paper industry by 2025, with overall supply and demand expected to gradually improve [4] Summary by Sections Market Review - The light manufacturing industry index rose by 1.92% from April 21 to April 27, 2025, ranking 7th among 28 first-level industries [12] - The four major sub-sectors of light manufacturing saw varying increases, with packaging and printing leading at 4.39%, followed by cultural products at 2.78%, paper at 2.14%, and furniture at -0.28% [12][17] Industry Chain Data Tracking Raw Materials - Waste paper prices remained stable, while pulp prices and dissolving pulp prices decreased [23] - The national waste paper price (excluding tax) fell by 1 yuan per ton to 1439 yuan per ton [23] - Chilean hardwood pulp prices decreased by $70 per ton, while softwood pulp prices fell by $55 per ton [23][29] Finished Paper - Most paper prices declined, with double glue paper down by 38 yuan per ton, copper plate paper down by 14 yuan per ton, and white card paper down by 39 yuan per ton [37] - High-end corrugated paper prices remained stable, while low-end corrugated paper prices decreased by 47 yuan per ton [37][44] Profitability Levels - Profitability varied among cultural papers, with small paper companies seeing an increase of 17 yuan per ton in double glue paper, while large companies experienced a decrease of 41 yuan per ton [46] - The profitability of white card paper decreased by 17-39 yuan per ton compared to the previous week [49] Production and Inventory - The cumulative production of mechanical paper and paperboard from January to March 2025 was 38.19 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [55] - The inventory of finished products in the paper and paper products industry was estimated at 732 billion yuan [22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the paper and light industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The light manufacturing industry index increased by 1.92%, outperforming the market by 1.53 percentage points, with the paper sub-sector rising by 2.14%, surpassing the market by 1.76 percentage points [2][12] - The report highlights a downward trend in pulp prices, with Chilean hardwood pulp prices dropping by $70 per ton and softwood pulp prices decreasing by $55 per ton [4][23] - The report recommends leading companies in the integrated forest-pulp-paper industry, such as Sun Paper (002078, Buy), and suggests focusing on specialty paper leaders like Xianhe Shares (603733, Buy) and high-end decorative paper leader Huawang Technology (605377, Buy) [4] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review (2025/04/21-2025/04/27) - The light manufacturing industry index rose by 1.92%, with the paper sub-sector increasing by 2.14%, ranking 7th among 28 first-level industries [12][2] - The four major sub-sectors of light manufacturing ranked by growth are packaging and printing, cultural products, paper, and furniture, with respective increases of 4.39%, 2.78%, 2.14%, and a decrease of 0.28% [12][2] 2. Industry Chain Data Tracking: Pulp and Paper Prices Decline 2.1 Raw Materials - Domestic waste paper prices remained stable, while pulp prices fell; hardwood pulp prices decreased by 112 RMB per ton, and softwood pulp prices fell by 40 RMB per ton [9][23] - The report notes a total of 1.79 million tons of pulp inventory at two major Chinese ports, a decrease of 10.9% [24][31] 2.2 Finished Paper - The average market price for various paper products fell, with double glue paper down by 38 RMB per ton, copper plate paper down by 14 RMB per ton, and white card paper down by 39 RMB per ton [37][40][42] 2.3 Profitability Levels - Profitability varied among cultural papers, with small paper companies seeing an increase of 17 RMB per ton, while large companies experienced a decrease of 41 RMB per ton [46][47] - The profitability of waste paper products also declined, with decreases ranging from 9 to 44 RMB per ton [53] 2.4 Mechanism Paper and Board Production - The cumulative production of mechanism paper and board in the first quarter of 2025 reached 38.19 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [55] - The report indicates a decrease in imports of paper and board by 8.2% year-on-year, while exports increased by 10.7% [55]