行业 纸浆日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 10 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员:李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅多晶硅） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635727 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The supply of coniferous pulp is decreasing due to production cuts by major global coniferous pulp mills, while the increase in broadleaf pulp production makes it difficult to relieve the supply pressure, leading to a continuous differentiation between coniferous and broadleaf pulp. Geopolitical factors have reduced imports from North America, but increased imports from Brazil, Chile, Finland, and Uruguay have supplemented the supply. Overall, China's total pulp imports are at a historically high level. The pulp futures market has been in an adjustment trend since February this year, and attention should be paid to the stabilization of the market. Waiting for the recovery of demand, the market is expected to bottom out and rebound [2][3][14] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - In 2025, the pulp futures generally showed a downward trend from a high level. From January to October, it dropped significantly due to increased wood pulp imports, frequent macro disturbances, and poor profitability of downstream paper mills, resulting in weak demand. From October to the present, there has been a slight rebound as the traditional peak season for the paper industry arrived in October, new production capacity of tissue paper enterprises was continuously released, and pulp demand slightly recovered [8] 2. Pulp Fundamental Analysis Import Volume - China has a high degree of external dependence on pulp, especially for bleached softwood pulp. In 2025, from January to October, the cumulative import volume and amount increased by 4.8% and -2.0% respectively compared with the same period last year. Specifically, the cumulative import volume of coniferous pulp was 712.24 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.74%, and that of broadleaf pulp was 1382.63 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.33% [2][13] European Port Inventory - In September 2025, the total inventory of European ports decreased by 4.39% month-on-month and 0.49% year-on-year. Except for the inventory in Spanish ports remaining flat month-on-month, the inventories in ports of the Netherlands/Belgium/France/Switzerland, the UK, Germany, and Italy decreased by 1.36%, 2.17%, 6.87%, and 9.55% respectively month-on-month [19] Domestic Major Port Inventory - As of November 20, 2025, the total pulp inventory in Baoding, Tianjin Port, Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, Shanghai Port, Gaolan Port, and Nansha Port was 201.04 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.71%, with the growth rate narrowing by 2.51 percentage points [22] Pulp Consumption - In recent years, the global apparent consumption of pulp has been stable at 1.8 billion tons. In the long run, the global pulp supply and demand are basically balanced. Wastepaper pulp consumption is the main consumption method of pulp in China, accounting for 63% of the total pulp consumption; wood pulp consumption accounts for 31%, and imported wood pulp consumption accounts for 21%; non-wood pulp consumption accounts for 6% [24] Downstream Paper Mills - The operating load rate of downstream paper mills has decreased, the profitability of the paper industry has improved poorly, and they purchase raw materials based on rigid demand. High-price transactions in the pulp market are not smooth. As of November 20, the weekly average price of Silver Star spot was 5560 yuan/ton, and the current gross profit margin was below the break-even line [29] Domestic Market Prices - As of November 20, the weekly average price of imported coniferous pulp was 5567 yuan/ton, a 0.02% increase from last week, with the growth rate narrowing by 1.07 percentage points; the weekly average price of imported broadleaf pulp was 4392 yuan/ton, a 1.62% increase from last week, with the growth rate narrowing by 0.05 percentage points. The downstream paper mills' operating rate has decreased, and high raw material prices have suppressed their purchasing enthusiasm. The domestic broadleaf pulp supply is abundant, and the price increase is weak. The spot market price of imported broadleaf pulp is running weakly [34] 3. Future Outlook - China's high external dependence on pulp remains unchanged, and the import volume and inventory data are similar to the previous analysis. The supply situation of coniferous and broadleaf pulp continues to differentiate, and the pulp futures market has been in an adjustment trend. Attention should be paid to the stabilization of the market, and waiting for the recovery of demand, the market is expected to bottom out and rebound [36][37]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant movement in "Cross-Strait" concept stocks in the capital market, particularly focusing on Fujian Province's listed companies, which are gaining attention due to their strong industrial foundations and innovative strategies [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - Qingshan Paper (600103.SH) is a state-controlled listed company with over 60 years of development, leading in the green paper and pharmaceutical sectors through a dual-driven strategy [1]. - The company has established a diversified industrial structure that includes pulp, paper, cogeneration, pharmaceuticals, and optoelectronics, making it a key player in the packaging paper and textile dissolving pulp sectors [1]. Group 2: Innovation and Development - Qingshan Paper has recently established an academic expert workstation to address industrial technology bottlenecks and enhance future development, aligning with the bamboo industry chain's strategic initiatives in Sanming City [2]. - The company aims to create a deep integration of production, education, research, and application through this workstation, positioning itself as a core engine for high-quality development in the bamboo industry [2]. Group 3: Environmental and Sustainable Practices - The company has integrated green development principles throughout its operations, implementing comprehensive environmental emergency plans and pollution control facilities [3]. - Qingshan Paper is committed to enhancing its bamboo pulp application scenarios and optimizing production processes to develop more bamboo-based products, thereby converting regional bamboo resource advantages into industrial and economic benefits [3]. Group 4: Market Opportunities - The ongoing development of the Cross-Strait integration demonstration zone presents both policy and market opportunities for local Fujian enterprises [3]. - With a clear green development strategy, strong technological innovation capabilities, and resource integration advantages, Qingshan Paper is expected to lead in the high-value utilization of bamboo resources, contributing to the region's economic growth [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant movement in "Cross-Strait" concept stocks in the capital market, particularly focusing on Fujian Province's listed companies, which are gaining attention due to their solid industrial foundations and innovative strategies [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - Qingshan Paper Industry (600103.SH) has over 60 years of development and is a state-controlled listed company, leading with a dual-driven strategy of "green papermaking and meticulous pharmaceuticals" [1]. - The company has established a diversified industrial structure that includes pulp, paper, cogeneration, pharmaceuticals, and optoelectronics, making it a key player in the production of packaging paper and dissolving pulp in China [1]. Group 2: Innovation and Development - Innovation is identified as a crucial factor for the company to overcome development bottlenecks, with the recent establishment of an academician expert workstation aimed at addressing technical challenges and enhancing future growth [2]. - The company aims to create a deep integration of production, education, research, and application through this workstation, positioning itself as a core engine for the high-quality development of the bamboo industry in Sanming [2]. Group 3: Environmental and Sustainable Practices - The company has integrated green development principles throughout its operations, implementing comprehensive environmental emergency plans and pollution control facilities to ensure compliance with environmental standards [3]. - Qingshan Paper Industry is committed to enhancing its bamboo pulp applications and optimizing production processes to convert Fujian's bamboo resource advantages into industrial and economic benefits [3]. Group 4: Market Opportunities - The ongoing development of the Cross-Strait integration demonstration zone presents both policy and market opportunities for local Fujian enterprises, with Qingshan Paper Industry positioned to lead in the high-value utilization of bamboo resources [3]. - The company's clear green development strategy, strong technological innovation capabilities, and resource integration advantages are expected to contribute significantly to the high-quality development of the regional economy [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company primarily uses the wood pulp produced for its own paper manufacturing, while all of its dissolving pulp products are sold externally [1] Group 1 - The company, Sun Paper Industry, indicated that the wood pulp produced is mainly for self-use [1] - The dissolving pulp products are entirely exported [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company primarily produces wood pulp for its own use, while all of its dissolving pulp products are sold externally. There are currently no plans for related applications regarding pulp production [1]. Group 1 - The company produces wood pulp mainly for self-use [1] - All dissolving pulp products are sold externally [1] - There are no current plans for pulp production applications [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [8] Core Views - The company is expected to see improved performance in Q4 2025, with a focus on price increases in the paper market as demand recovers and raw material prices stabilize [2][5] - The company has a strong integrated business model in the forestry and paper industry, which helps mitigate cyclical fluctuations [4][5] - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 indicate steady growth, with expected revenues of 429.4 billion, 490.8 billion, and 520.1 billion respectively, and net profits of 34.0 billion, 38.9 billion, and 43.9 billion [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenues of 9.823 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.01% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 720 million yuan, up 2.7% year-on-year but down 19.5% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 14.07%, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage points but a decrease of 3.2 percentage points from the previous quarter [4] Product Segmentation - Cultural paper prices decreased in Q3 2025, with average prices for double glue paper at 4,944 yuan/ton, down 5.7% quarter-on-quarter and 9.2% year-on-year. Price increases are anticipated in Q4 due to seasonal demand [2] - Dissolving pulp prices fell significantly in Q3 2025, averaging 6,517 yuan/ton, down 16.8% year-on-year and 8.5% quarter-on-quarter, but are expected to stabilize as costs decrease [2] - Boxboard prices showed mixed trends, with average prices for boxboard at 3,502 yuan/ton (down 0.5% quarter-on-quarter) and corrugated paper at 2,644 yuan/ton (up 3.7% quarter-on-quarter) [3] Strategic Developments - The company is optimizing its pulp and paper industry layout, with several new projects in progress that are expected to contribute to revenue in Q4 2025 [5] - The integration of forestry and pulp production is expected to enhance profitability and reduce the impact of market fluctuations [5] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 429.4 billion, 490.8 billion, and 520.1 billion from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 34.0 billion, 38.9 billion, and 43.9 billion [6] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the next three years are forecasted to be 12X, 10X, and 9X respectively, indicating a favorable valuation [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4]. Core Views - The company's Q3 earnings were under short-term pressure, confirming the profit bottom for the year. However, with new production capacity coming online in Q4, there is potential for profit growth [1][4]. - The prices of cultural paper and dissolving pulp have been under pressure, while the boxboard prices have seen increases due to cost pass-through [2][3]. - The company is entering a new phase of concentrated capacity release, which is expected to enhance earnings flexibility over the next two years [4][6]. Summary by Sections Q3 Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 28.94 billion yuan, down 6.6%, and a net profit of 2.50 billion yuan, up 1.7%. In Q3 alone, revenue was 9.82 billion yuan, down 6.0%, with a net profit of 720 million yuan, up 2.7% [1]. Price Trends - Cultural paper prices fell significantly in Q3, with prices for double glue paper and double copper paper dropping by 250 yuan/ton and 450 yuan/ton, respectively. The dissolving pulp market also saw a decline of 400 yuan/ton [2]. - In October, cultural paper prices showed signs of stabilization, with slight decreases, while boxboard prices increased due to seasonal demand and tightening upstream supply [3]. Capacity Expansion - The company has several new production lines coming online, including a 1 million ton high-end packaging paper line in Guangxi, which is expected to release profit increments in Q4 [4]. - Future projects include a 140,000 ton specialty paper project in Shandong, expected to begin trial production in Q1 2026 [4]. Financial Forecasts - The profit forecasts have been adjusted downward due to weak pulp and paper prices, with expected net profits of 3.37 billion yuan, 3.88 billion yuan, and 4.35 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][26] Core Views - The company's Q3 earnings were under short-term pressure, confirming the profit bottom for the year, with expectations for profit growth in Q4 due to new capacity coming online [1][4] - Cultural paper and dissolving pulp prices have been under pressure, while boxboard prices have seen increases due to cost pass-through [2][3] - The company is entering a new phase of concentrated capacity release, which is expected to enhance earnings flexibility over the next two years [4][6] Summary by Sections Q3 Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 28.94 billion yuan, down 6.6%, and a net profit of 2.50 billion yuan, up 1.7% [1] - In Q3 alone, revenue was 9.82 billion yuan, down 6.0%, with a net profit of 720 million yuan, up 2.7% [1] Price Trends - Cultural paper prices fell significantly in Q3, with prices for double glue paper and double copper paper dropping by 250 yuan/ton and 450 yuan/ton respectively [2] - Conversely, boxboard prices in South China increased by 150 yuan/ton for boxboard and 410 yuan/ton for high-strength corrugated paper [2] Q4 Expectations - Cultural paper prices are expected to stabilize and potentially increase, as they are currently below the industry average cost line [3] - The fourth quarter is anticipated to be a traditional sales peak for boxboard due to holiday demand, with expectations for slight price increases [3] Capacity Expansion - The company has significant new capacity coming online in Q4, including various production lines in Guangxi and Shandong, which are expected to contribute to profit growth [4] - The Guangxi base has already started production on several lines, with more expected to come online in the coming months [4] Financial Forecasts - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted, with expected net profits of 3.37 billion yuan, 3.88 billion yuan, and 4.35 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 8.7%, 15.2%, and 12.0% [4][5] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 11.8, 10.2, and 9.1 times for the respective years [4][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 28.936 billion yuan, net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.500 billion yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 2.471 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, showing a year-on-year change of -7%, +2%, and -5% respectively. In Q3 2025, the revenue was 9.823 billion yuan, net profit attributable to shareholders was 720 million yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items was 707 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -6%, +3%, and -9% respectively [2][4][5]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1 yuan per 10 shares to all shareholders, totaling 279 million yuan [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the main reason for the decline in net profit was the drop in profitability of cultural paper, with prices for copperplate and double-glue paper decreasing by 500 yuan/ton (-9.3%) and 338 yuan/ton (-6.6%) respectively compared to Q2 2025. The decline in paper prices was attributed to a seasonal demand slump and oversupply in the cultural paper segment [5][6]. - The profitability of boxboard paper remained stable due to rising raw material prices, while the profitability of dissolving pulp and externally sold wood pulp was expected to remain stable as well [5][6]. Market Outlook - The fourth quarter is expected to see improved performance due to the launch of the Nanning project and seasonal demand recovery. The company has new production capacity planned, including 1 million tons of boxboard paper and 400,000 tons of specialty paper, which will contribute to increased production and sales in Q4 2025 [10]. - The overall paper industry is anticipated to enter an upward cycle as new capacity pressures ease and demand stabilizes, with the company expected to achieve net profits of 3.4 billion, 3.9 billion, and 4.3 billion yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to PE ratios of 12, 10, and 9 times [10].