玉米现货持续回落 盘面底部震荡 银河农产品 研究员：刘大勇 期货从业证号：F03107370 投资咨询证号：Z0018389 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第三章 | 周度数据追踪 | 11 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 玉米：美玉米受降息预期影响及后期可能下调单产，美玉米12合约反弹到400美分/蒲以上。截止8月22日，玉米拍卖367万吨，成交130万吨，成交率36%。 进口玉米持续拍卖，09仓单仍较高，国内种植成本降低，新季玉米陆续上市，国内玉米现货继续回落。目前市场焦点依旧是新作，尤其是华北市场，市场预期华 北玉米10月大量上市大概率跌破2200元/吨。01玉米底部震荡，短期2150元/吨附近震荡。 淀粉：淀粉厂开机 ...

格隆汇8月22日丨合丰集团(02320.HK)公告，截至2025年6月30日止6个月，收益6910万港元，同比减幅 达35.9%，源于客户订单减少及竞争激烈。销售成本的下降由于公司减少了箱板纸采购。2025年上半年 录得期间亏损3840万港元，而2024年上半年录得期间亏损4370万港元。董事不建议派付截至2025年6月 30日止6个月中期股息(截至2024年6月30日止6个月：无)。 目前，集团持续与地方政府协调办理燃煤锅炉许可证年检手续。同时，集团正在按地方政府的环保政策 与地方政府进行协调燃煤锅炉改燃气锅炉项目及预期在完成相关协调后恢复生产。为确保集团下游瓦楞 包装业务的稳定供应，集团向第三方供应商采购箱板纸。由2022年开始无上游业务的对外收入。 于2025年上半年，由于客户订单的减少，集团的收入下跌了35.9%。环球经济的不景气及市场的激烈的 竞争令瓦楞包装行业面临较大压力。自2021年10月起，集团上游箱板纸业务暂时停产。 ...

Core Viewpoint - 中金上调玖龙纸业FY25-26年业绩预期，主要因自制浆成本控制超预期，预计FY25盈利21-23亿元，同比增加165%至190% [1] Group 1: Performance and Financials - FY25业绩上调25%至18亿元，FY26上调49%至25亿元，FY27引入25亿元 [1] - 目标价上调33%至6.0港元，隐含11%上行空间 [1] - FY25归母净利润预计17-19亿元，同比增加126%至153% [1] Group 2: Production and Market Strategy - FY25造纸销量预计2100万吨，同比增长10% [2] - 公司战略重心为扩浆纸品类及强化原料布局，预计FY25投产120万吨白卡纸、60万吨文化纸、175万吨化学浆、60万吨化机浆 [2] - 预计到2025年末，纸+浆产能将突破3000万吨 [2] Group 3: Cost Management and Market Conditions - 业绩超预期的核心在于自制浆成本控制及动力煤价格下跌 [3] - 预计2025年下半年煤价环比修复，需关注自制浆成本变化对利润的影响 [3] Group 4: Capital Expenditure and Debt Management - FY25资本开支预计在130亿元以上，FY26资本开支可能仍偏高 [4] - 需关注公司负债率变化及最新投产规划 [4]

Price Increases in the Paper Industry - Major paper companies have been issuing price increase notices since July, with companies like Nine Dragons Paper, Lee & Man Paper, and others raising prices for various paper products by 30 to 50 yuan per ton [1][4] - The average market price for AA-grade corrugated paper increased by 1.90% to 2573 yuan per ton, while the average price for boxboard rose by 0.32% to 3461 yuan per ton as of August 7 [1][4] Reasons for Price Increases - The price hikes are primarily driven by rising raw material costs and increased operational expenses, with companies like Shandong Century Sunshine Paper citing high production costs as a significant pressure [4][5] - A decrease in the supply of recycled paper due to adverse weather conditions has contributed to rising costs, benefiting the prices of corrugated and boxboard paper [4][6] Industry Performance and Trends - The paper and paper products industry reported a revenue of 681.21 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, with total profits down 21.4% to 17.57 billion yuan, indicating significant growth pressures [5] - The upcoming traditional peak seasons, such as the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, are expected to increase demand, with a potential for further price adjustments in August and September [6][7] Industry Challenges and Responses - The paper industry faces severe supply-demand imbalances, with increased production capacity leading to oversupply, while demand growth remains sluggish due to global economic slowdowns [8] - In response to low-price competition, industry associations in Guangdong and Jiangsu have initiated measures to promote high-quality development and reduce internal competition, with companies like Nine Dragons and Lee & Man supporting these initiatives by halting production [10]

编者按： 这里是民生调查局，见人所未见，调查民生之变。关注你想关注的、你没关注的，调查你想 看的、未看到的。 中新网北京8月17日电(记者 谢艺观)造纸行业再掀波澜。近段时间，各大纸企涨价函如雪花般涌来，有 企业甚至多次调价。为何纸企会接二连三宣布涨价？难道"洛阳纸贵"又要上演？ 涨价！涨价！涨价！ 7月以来，玖龙纸业、理文造纸、湖北荣成纸业、山鹰国际等业内知名纸企纷纷发布涨价函，涉及瓦楞 纸、再生牛卡纸、T纸、箱板纸、纱管纸等多类纸品。其中，玖龙纸业多个基地更是轮番调价，涨势强 劲。 中新网记者同时询问了电商平台上的快递盒、纸袋销售商家，多位客服表示，"价格暂时没调整，之后 是否上调具体要等通知。" 纸企为何纷纷调价？ 纸企巨头上调纸价后，其他纸企亦陆续跟涨，这波纸企涨价愈演愈烈。综合各公司调价信息，涨价范围 多是在每吨30元至50元之间。 上游原纸涨势不止，也波及到下游包装行业。近日，多个包装企业发布通知，上调纸板价格。 卓创资讯监测数据显示，截至8月7日，中国AA级瓦楞纸120g市场均价2573元/吨，较上月底上调 1.90%；中国箱板纸市场均价3461元/吨，较上月底上调0.32%。 资料图。 谢艺观 ...

新华财经广州8月12日电（记者吕光一） 近段时间以来，国内造纸行业"涨声"不断，以龙头纸企为首， 行业多次发出涨价通知，范围覆盖瓦楞纸、牛卡纸、箱板纸等多个品类，引发市场关注。 年内多次提价 7月下旬开始，玖龙纸业、江西理文造纸、湖北荣成纸业、山鹰国际等多家纸企再次发出涨价通知，宣 布因成本上涨，将从8月1日起上调瓦楞纸、再生牛卡纸等部分纸种的价格，涨幅普遍在30-50元／吨。 记者注意到，造纸行业这一波涨价潮事实上从今年一季度已经开启，一些龙头纸企已多次发布涨价函。 特别是进入7月份以来，部分企业甚至在近一个月的时间内提价多次，行业涨价步伐明显加快。 国金证券分析指出，随着纸浆价格逐渐企稳回升，叠加9-11月为文化纸招标旺季、下半年进入箱板瓦楞 纸消费旺季，在下游需求刺激下，纸价有望持续回暖以增厚纸厂利润。 陈竹表示，涨价能否落地与维持取决于供求关系。目前来看是比较好的时机，旺季需求即将到来。"一 方面，下半年是造纸旺季，需求会增加；另一方面，近期原材料成本价格上涨明显，对价格有部分支撑 作用。长期来看，如果下游需求能够保持，则价格有望稳定。"陈竹说。 市场期待"反内卷"效果 与涨价函一起来的还有"停机函" ...

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [7] Core Viewpoints - The paper industry is expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" policy, which aims to address the issue of overcapacity and promote the exit of backward production capacity. Although the industry will remain under pressure in the short term, medium to long-term investment opportunities are emerging [4][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Status: Overcapacity and Intensified "Involution" Dilemma - The main contradiction in the domestic paper industry is the mismatch between supply and demand, with production capacity growth far exceeding demand since 2020. For instance, the capacity for boxboard paper is projected to reach 47.77 million tons in 2024, while the apparent consumption is only 35.33 million tons, indicating a capacity surplus of approximately 1.4 to 2.1 times [16][18]. - The prices and profitability of major paper types have dropped to historical lows due to this supply-demand imbalance, leading to widespread losses in the industry. The total profit of the paper and paper products industry fell to 52 billion yuan in 2024, with losses from unprofitable companies reaching 16.8 billion yuan [26][27]. - The industry's operating indicators show a continuous decline in the operating rate, which has dropped from 80-90% to 60-70%, reflecting both proactive production cuts by companies and insufficient market demand [28][30]. 2. Historical Insights: Lessons from the 2016-2018 Supply-Side Reform - The supply-side reform from 2016 to 2018 was driven by strong national policies, leading to a market clearing of backward production capacity and an increase in industry concentration. The number of paper enterprises decreased from 6,841 in February 2016 to 6,594 by mid-2017 [39][40]. - The price surge during this period was a result of effective supply-side reforms and steady demand growth, with major paper types experiencing price increases of over 40% [45][48]. 3. Core Judgments: Is This Round of "Anti-Involution" a New Cycle or a New Story? - The current paper industry has several logical foundations for initiating a new cycle of recovery, similar to those present before the last round of supply-side reforms. These include government policies aimed at addressing "involution" and the natural market clearing dynamics due to widespread losses [57][58]. - The new national standard for energy consumption limits in the paper industry, effective from May 2025, will impose stricter requirements, potentially accelerating the exit of outdated production capacity [59][61].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a significant price increase in the next 6-12 months [6][13]. Core Views - The report highlights that multiple paper companies have issued price increase notices, which may improve the industry's profitability [2]. - It notes that overseas pulp mills are reducing production, which is expected to stabilize and potentially increase pulp prices [3]. - The report anticipates a recovery in finished paper prices as pulp prices rise and demand improves, particularly in the second half of 2025 [4]. - The company is expanding its production capacity and enhancing its integrated operations in the pulp and paper industry, which is expected to improve profitability [5]. - Revenue and profit forecasts for the company show a steady growth trajectory from 2025 to 2027, with expected revenues of 436.97 billion, 472.71 billion, and 506.73 billion yuan, respectively [6]. Summary by Sections Industry Analysis - In August, several paper companies announced price increases, marking the fourth round of price adjustments since July, indicating a trend towards improved profitability in the packaging paper sector [2]. - Domestic pulp prices have been under pressure due to concentrated production capacity and weak downstream demand, but a recovery is anticipated in the second half of 2025 as demand picks up [3]. Company Performance - The company has launched several new production lines and projects, including a 37,000-ton specialty paper project and various pulp production lines, which are expected to enhance its competitive edge and profitability [5]. - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 436.97 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 7.29%, and net profits of 35.46 billion yuan, reflecting a 14.33% increase [6]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 1.27 yuan for 2025, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 11, 10, and 9 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6].

Group 1 - The paper industry is experiencing a price increase wave, with leading companies like Nine Dragons Paper, Lee & Man Paper, and Shanying International announcing price hikes effective from August 1, marking the fourth round of price adjustments since July [1] - The primary driver for this price increase is the rising costs of raw materials, energy, and logistics, particularly affecting packaging paper prices [1] - The price of waste cardboard, a key raw material for corrugated paper, has a strong positive correlation with corrugated paper prices, with recent supply issues leading to price adjustments of 20-40 yuan/ton in certain regions [1] Group 2 - Manufacturers' pricing strategies aim to stimulate downstream purchasing and reinforce price increase expectations, encouraging packaging companies to procure in advance and reduce inventory pressure [2] - Despite frequent price hikes, weak terminal demand and overcapacity in the paper industry create uncertainty in the transmission of price increases through the supply chain [2] - The corrugated paper price increase has not fully translated to the packaging sector, with some packaging companies engaging in price competition due to insufficient orders [2] Group 3 - The overall profitability of the paper industry is expected to remain low in the second half of the year due to the linkage between raw material costs and paper prices [3] - Long-term challenges include overcapacity and insufficient demand, leading to severe competition and price wars among companies [3] - The Guangdong Provincial Paper Industry Association has initiated a campaign to promote high-quality development and combat low-price competition, indicating a push towards healthier industry practices [3]

Price Trends - The price of waste paper has increased from 0.3 yuan per jin to 0.4-0.5 yuan per jin, leading to a rise in the prices of corrugated paper and boxboard paper by 30-50 yuan per ton due to increased costs [1][3] - Despite the price increases in packaging paper, prices for paper types made from pulp, such as white card paper and cultural paper, have been declining due to excess capacity and insufficient demand [1][7] Industry Dynamics - The paper industry is experiencing a negative cycle where expanding production does not lead to profitability, as companies feel pressured to expand to maintain market share [2] - The domestic paper industry is projected to add over 10 million tons of new capacity from 2023 to 2024, while demand growth is expected to be only 1.5% in 2024, leading to significant supply-demand imbalances [8] Cost Pressures - Rising operational costs have prompted multiple price increase notices from companies like Nine Dragons Paper, with the latest being the sixth notice in July alone [3][4] - The increase in waste paper prices due to heavy rainfall has contributed to the cost pressures faced by paper manufacturers [3][4] Market Sentiment - Despite the price increases, the transmission of these costs to the packaging sector remains uncertain due to weak terminal demand, leading to competitive pricing among packaging companies [5][6] - The overall profitability of the industry is under pressure, with some companies reporting losses while others are barely breaking even [12] Future Outlook - The paper prices are expected to remain weak in the second half of the year, with companies focusing on cost management to maintain profit margins [14] - The industry is likely to see further consolidation as smaller companies may struggle to survive in the current environment, leading to a potential increase in market share for larger firms [12][13]