他表示，市场未来变数多，包括地缘政治、美国息率走向，所以外汇基金的规模需要分散风险。他说， 贵金属亦有投资价值，但价格变化与债券等不同。 香港金管局总裁余伟文表示，外汇基金与政府的分帐行之有效，以外汇基金投资组合的6年滚动投资回 报率作基准，或者3年期外汇基金票据债息，以较高者为准，可以令政府投资收益较可预测及稳定。 智通财经APP获悉，香港金管局副总裁李达志表示，2025年第四季香港"百分百担保特惠贷款"坏账率升 至18.67%，较第三季上升0.5-0.6个百分点，较早期增加逾3个百分点的增速放缓。 李达志指，外汇基金持有少量实金，商品投资组合中部分与黄金相关，但数量不多。虽然过去两年金价 升幅强劲，但刚过去周末跌幅，尤其银价跌幅惊人。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) is focused on diversifying its foreign exchange fund investments, with an emphasis on long-term returns, including a modest allocation to gold [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Fund Diversification - The HKMA president, Eddie Yue, indicated that the foreign exchange fund aims for diversified investments and has a small allocation to gold [1] - Historically, the foreign exchange fund had a high allocation of 85-86% in US dollar assets, which is projected to decrease to 79% by the end of 2024, leaving 21% in non-US dollar assets [1] Group 2: Issuance of Foreign Exchange Fund Notes - The CEO of the HKMA's Foreign Exchange Fund Investment Office, Li Dak-chi, stated that the decision to issue additional foreign exchange fund notes depends on monetary management factors, such as Hong Kong interbank rates and the yield of the foreign exchange fund [1] - The issuance of foreign exchange fund notes is not considered an investment action [1] Group 3: Long-Term Growth Portfolio Performance - Since 2009, the HKMA has been investing in alternative assets through a "Long-Term Growth Portfolio," which has shown stable performance in the first three quarters of 2025 [1] - The annualized internal rate of return for the portfolio from inception until September 2025 is reported at 11.2% [1] - As of September 2025, the total market value of the main asset categories in the portfolio is HKD 579.6 billion, with private equity valued at HKD 420.4 billion and physical assets at HKD 159.2 billion [1]

Core Insights - The phenomenon of Hong Kong dollar (HKD) interest rates being persistently lower than US dollar (USD) interest rates is primarily attributed to long-term net capital inflows leading to excess HKD liquidity [1][6] - The significant growth in HKD monetary base since 2000 is largely due to Hong Kong's status as a free trade port and a gateway between China and the world, resulting in substantial international capital inflows, particularly into the securities market [1] - The HKD/USD exchange rate has remained close to the strong-side guarantee level of 7.75, reflecting the impact of these capital inflows [1] Group 1 - The demand for short-term foreign exchange fund notes has surged as Hong Kong banks manage liquidity in the context of ongoing net capital inflows [2] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has increased the supply of high-quality foreign exchange fund notes, leading to an excess of HKD liquidity in the market [2] - The HKD swap market plays a crucial role in HKD funding, with active trading and strong liquidity, resulting in actual swap points being consistently lower than theoretical swap points [2] Group 2 - The carry trade between HKD and USD offers some opportunities, but the strategy is subject to significant short-term volatility, making it difficult to maintain a zero interest rate differential over the long term [6] - Market interventions by the HKMA can have a substantial impact, such as causing rapid widening of the HKD/USD interest rate spread following interventions [6] - The persistent lower interest rates of HKD compared to USD are influenced by multiple factors, including excess liquidity from long-term capital inflows, strong demand for HKD in the swap market, and the short-term volatility of carry trades [6]