◎记者 范子萌 春节将至，人民币强势破关。2月12日，在岸、离岸人民币对美元汇率双双升破6.90关口，盘中创下 2023年4月以来新高。 这轮自去年末悄然启动的升值行情，正引发市场广泛关注：人民币的强势，成色几何？行情是否可持 续？ 从市场归因来看，结汇盘集中释放是本轮人民币走强的核心驱动力。东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青对上 海证券报记者表示，年末企业结汇需求季节性增加，叠加近期人民币持续升值，此前出口高增所累积的 结汇需求有可能加速释放。 王青提醒，汇率是出了名的"测不准"，外贸企业切忌在人民币汇率波动过程中单边押注，要坚守主业， 适度利用各类外汇市场衍生品工具，控制汇率风险敞口，锁定出口收入，稳定经营预期。对居民来说， 换汇更应以实需为原则。 外部环境变化也为人民币走强提供了助力。王青分析称，近期美国司法部对美联储主席鲍威尔发起刑事 调查，令美联储独立性受到冲击，加之美联储新主席人选的"降息+缩表"主张尚未扭转美元颓势。非美 货币普遍升值，人民币顺势走升。 展望后市，多位专家提醒，人民币汇率走势仍存在较大不确定性，企业和金融机构切忌盲目跟风、赌汇 率走势。 "在当前人民币持续走强过程中，不可忽视未来人民币兑 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Yuan (RMB) has been appreciating against the US Dollar, breaking significant thresholds and reaching its highest level since May 4, 2023, driven by improved Sino-US trade relations and external economic conditions [1][2]. Exchange Rate Dynamics - On February 12, 2023, the onshore RMB opened at 6.9083 against the USD, peaking at 6.8998, while the offshore RMB reached 6.8964, both marking new highs since May 4, 2023 [1]. - The People's Bank of China set the mid-point exchange rate at 6.9457 RMB per USD, a slight depreciation of 19 basis points from the previous day [1]. Influencing Factors - The RMB's strength is attributed to the stabilization of Sino-US economic relations since November 2025 and a recent criminal investigation into the Federal Reserve Chairman, which has pressured the USD [1][2]. - Increased corporate demand for currency exchange towards the year-end is also contributing to the seasonal strengthening of the RMB, particularly following high export growth [2]. Short-term Outlook - The RMB is expected to remain strong in the short term, supported by continued export growth and high market sentiment, with limited potential for a significant rebound in the USD index [2]. Long-term Considerations - Over the year, the RMB's exchange rate will be influenced by the USD's performance, changes in external trade environments, and domestic growth policies [2][3]. - Potential depreciation pressures on the RMB may arise due to the anticipated stabilization of the USD index in 2026 and the impact of the Federal Reserve's new policies [2][3]. Impact on Trade and Residents - The current appreciation of the RMB is not expected to significantly impact export businesses, although it may affect their exchange rate gains [3]. - For residents, a stronger RMB reduces the cost of currency exchange, benefiting expenses related to travel and education abroad [3]. Policy Implications - The RMB's appreciation provides more flexibility for domestic monetary policy adjustments, potentially easing constraints on interest rate cuts [4]. - The attractiveness of RMB assets may increase due to the currency's appreciation, although the impact on cross-border capital flows remains limited [5].