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宇通客车(600066):系列点评八:25Q3业绩符合预期,海外增势强劲
Minsheng Securities· 2025-10-29 07:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price based on the closing price of 31.66 yuan on October 28, 2025 [6]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2025 met expectations, with revenue of 10.237 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.27%, and a net profit of 1.357 billion yuan, up 78.98% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company is a leader in the bus export market, achieving a market share of 29.41% in Q3 2025, with significant growth in the export of new energy buses [3]. - Domestic demand for buses is expected to rise due to the implementation of a vehicle replacement policy, which provides substantial subsidies for new energy city buses [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 26.366 billion yuan, a 9.52% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.292 billion yuan, up 35.38% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, the gross profit margin was 23.98%, significantly improved due to changes in accounting standards, while the net profit margin reached 13.59% [2]. Sales and Market Expansion - The company sold 12,235 buses in Q3 2025, a 13.38% increase year-on-year, contributing to revenue growth [2]. - The export of medium and large buses reached 15,623 units in Q3 2025, a 58.21% increase year-on-year, indicating strong international demand [3]. Investment Outlook - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.0 yuan per share in 2024, totaling 3.32 billion yuan, with an estimated dividend yield of 4.74% based on the current stock price [4]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 42.25 billion yuan, 48.55 billion yuan, and 55.89 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 4.546 billion yuan, 5.300 billion yuan, and 5.986 billion yuan [4][5].