Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Zhongtong Bus (000957.SZ), marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - Zhongtong Bus is a long-established player in the bus industry, with a strong focus on expanding its overseas business and a solid backing from state-owned Shandong Heavy Industry Group. The company has seen a continuous recovery in profits since 2024, driven by its new energy and export initiatives [5][16]. - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 7.82 billion, 9.38 billion, and 11.88 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.67, 0.89, and 1.18 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 17.1, 12.9, and 9.8 for the same years [5][8]. Company Overview - Zhongtong Bus is one of the earliest bus manufacturers in China, with a diverse product range covering over 140 models, including electric, hybrid, and fuel-powered buses. The company has sold over 100,000 new energy buses globally [5][19]. - The company has a strong state-owned background, with Shandong Heavy Industry Group as its controlling shareholder, which provides robust support [20]. Industry Analysis - The bus industry in China is projected to grow at a CAGR of 13.0% from 2022 to 2024, with large and medium buses expected to grow at a CAGR of 18.2%. The demand for new energy buses is also on the rise, with significant growth in sales observed in 2024 and 2025 [6][39]. - The domestic market is benefiting from policies promoting the replacement of old buses, which is expected to significantly boost sales in 2024 [52]. Company Highlights - Since 2024, Zhongtong Bus has experienced a significant recovery in sales, particularly in large and medium buses, with a notable increase in the proportion of new energy vehicles. The company’s sales volume increased by 51.5% in 2024 [72]. - The company’s overseas sales have been growing rapidly, with a CAGR of 53.9% from 2021 to 2024, and a significant increase in new energy bus exports in the first half of 2025 [7][39]. Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The company’s revenue for 2023 was 4.24 billion yuan, with a projected growth to 5.73 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 35.1%. The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 249 million yuan, a significant recovery from previous years [8].

Group 1: Competitive Advantage - The company emphasizes the importance of maintaining a moderate scale advantage as a foundation for competitiveness [2] - Strong R&D capabilities are crucial due to the highly customized nature of buses, enabling quick responses to customer needs [2] - Establishing a comprehensive sales and after-sales service network is essential for customer experience and brand reputation [2] Group 2: Domestic Market Growth - The domestic bus market is expected to maintain a stable annual update volume, driven by structural upgrades and renewals [3] - The international market is showing a continuous growth trend, influenced by China's increasing global influence and manufacturing strengths [3] Group 3: Hydrogen Fuel Cell Technology - The company is actively researching fuel cell technology and conducting product validation in policy-supported regions [3] - Challenges for large-scale commercialization include hydrogen storage, transportation, and infrastructure [3] Group 4: Brand Value and Market Positioning - The term "cost-performance ratio" reflects China's manufacturing advantages but indicates a need for improved brand premium [4] - Continuous product quality enhancement and innovation are necessary for long-term brand elevation and profit improvement [4] - The company aims to gradually enhance product value and brand positioning by leveraging its complete supply chain in new energy buses [4] Group 5: International Market Strategy - The strategy focuses on "point-to-surface" expansion, prioritizing countries with established orders and good reputations as regional benchmarks [5] - This approach aims to efficiently expand business by utilizing existing brand recognition and service networks [5] Group 6: Brand Building in Overseas Markets - The company is actively involved in international brand-building activities, leveraging the reputation of Shandong Heavy Industry Group's subsidiaries [6] - Utilizing group resources and channel synergies is key to successful overseas market expansion [6]

Event Overview - The company disclosed its Q3 2025 report, showing revenue of 26.366 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.52%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.292 billion yuan, up 35.38% year-on-year. The Q3 revenue reached 10.237 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 32.27% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.40% [2] - The net profit for Q3 was 1.357 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 78.98% and a quarter-on-quarter rise of 14.94% [2] Analysis and Judgment - Q3 performance met expectations, indicating resilience for the full year. Revenue for Q3 was 10.237 billion yuan, driven by the sale of 12,235 buses, which increased by 13.38% year-on-year [2] - Profitability improved with a gross margin of 23.98%, up 11.66 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in accounting standards. The net profit margin was 13.59%, reflecting a product structure optimization [2] - Expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and finance were 3.32%, 1.66%, 4.23%, and 0.15%, respectively, with significant changes attributed to accounting standard adjustments [2] Market Expansion - The company is a leader in the bus export market, with Q3 exports of 15,623 buses, a year-on-year increase of 58.21%. The company held a 29.41% market share in the export sector [3] - Exports of large and medium-sized new energy buses reached 1,268 units in Q3, a remarkable year-on-year increase of 296.25% [3] - The company has established bulk sales in nearly 60 countries, with total bus exports exceeding 110,000 units, including over 8,000 new energy buses [3] Domestic Demand Drivers - The implementation of a vehicle replacement policy for public transport is expected to boost domestic demand for buses. The policy provides an average subsidy of 80,000 yuan for new energy city buses and 42,000 yuan for battery replacements [4] - Domestic bus sales in Q3 reached 6,117 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 56.49%, indicating a positive impact from the new policy [4] Investment Recommendations - The company maintains a tradition of dividends, with a proposed dividend of 1.0 yuan per share for 2024, totaling 3.32 billion yuan. Assuming the same dividend in 2025, the corresponding dividend yield is 4.74% [5] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 42.252 billion yuan, 48.550 billion yuan, and 55.886 billion yuan, with net profits of 4.546 billion yuan, 5.300 billion yuan, and 5.986 billion yuan, respectively [6] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 2.05 yuan, 2.39 yuan, and 2.70 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 15, 13, and 12 [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price based on the closing price of 31.66 yuan on October 28, 2025 [6]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2025 met expectations, with revenue of 10.237 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.27%, and a net profit of 1.357 billion yuan, up 78.98% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company is a leader in the bus export market, achieving a market share of 29.41% in Q3 2025, with significant growth in the export of new energy buses [3]. - Domestic demand for buses is expected to rise due to the implementation of a vehicle replacement policy, which provides substantial subsidies for new energy city buses [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 26.366 billion yuan, a 9.52% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.292 billion yuan, up 35.38% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, the gross profit margin was 23.98%, significantly improved due to changes in accounting standards, while the net profit margin reached 13.59% [2]. Sales and Market Expansion - The company sold 12,235 buses in Q3 2025, a 13.38% increase year-on-year, contributing to revenue growth [2]. - The export of medium and large buses reached 15,623 units in Q3 2025, a 58.21% increase year-on-year, indicating strong international demand [3]. Investment Outlook - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.0 yuan per share in 2024, totaling 3.32 billion yuan, with an estimated dividend yield of 4.74% based on the current stock price [4]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 42.25 billion yuan, 48.55 billion yuan, and 55.89 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 4.546 billion yuan, 5.300 billion yuan, and 5.986 billion yuan [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - Yutong Bus has benefited from high export demand in 2023, with stock prices rising over 339% to peak, but concerns about sustainable growth have emerged due to fluctuations in export data post-July 2024, leading to underperformance compared to the automotive market this year [1] Group 1: Market Concerns - Has Yutong's overseas narrative changed? The company is accelerating its breakthrough under the opportunities presented by new energy, with a focus on high-quality development in bus exports, particularly in the new energy sector [1] - What is the long-term potential for Yutong? The domestic bus market is expected to expand to over 100 billion yuan by 2030, while the overseas market could reach 310 billion yuan, with Yutong's market share projected to increase from 35% to 40% domestically and from 5% to 13% overseas [2] Group 2: Investment Strategy - How to grasp Yutong's investment rhythm? The company’s stock price has historically been closely linked to export volume trends, and it is suggested to focus on long-term industry trends rather than short-term monthly data fluctuations [2] - Are there potential catalysts ahead? An increase in dividend payout ratios could enhance the company's valuation, with a potential adjustment in PE valuation to above 15 times if annual dividends reach 2 yuan per share [3] Group 3: Profit Forecast - Profit forecasts remain stable for the year, with upward adjustments for export volumes in 2026 and 2027 by 7% and 18% respectively, leading to an expected net profit of 49.0 billion yuan in 2025, 62.2 billion yuan in 2026, and 76.2 billion yuan in 2027 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance for the first half of 2025, with significant year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit, driven by increased exports, particularly in the new energy vehicle segment [1][2]. Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 190 million yuan, up 71.6% [1]. - In Q2 2025, revenue reached 2.25 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 52.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 32.7% [1]. - The net profit for Q2 was 110 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 66.1% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 48.8% [1]. Sales and Export Performance - In Q2 2025, the company sold 3,073 buses, a year-on-year decline of 3.6% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.1% [1]. - Export sales exceeded 1,900 units, marking a year-on-year growth of 5.0% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.4%, accounting for 62.0% of total sales [1]. - New energy vehicle exports surpassed 870 units, with a significant year-on-year increase and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 134.0%, representing 45.8% of export sales [1]. Profitability and Cost Management - The overall gross margin for H1 2025 was 15.4%, remaining stable year-on-year [2]. - In Q2 2025, the gross margin improved to 15.6%, up 0.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, with a gross profit margin of 11.5% [2]. - The company maintained effective cost control, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios at 4.1%, 1.2%, 3.1%, and -0.7%, respectively [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is in a period of intensive delivery for overseas orders, including contracts in West Africa, Uzbekistan, and the Bahamas, indicating a growing international market presence [2]. - A share buyback plan of 100 to 200 million yuan was announced, with 6.521 million shares repurchased by July 31, 2025, representing 1.1% of total shares [2]. Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 7.5 billion, 8.77 billion, and 9.91 billion yuan, with net profits of 400 million, 520 million, and 630 million yuan, respectively [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price based on the closing price of 27.77 yuan on August 25, 2025 [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 16.129 billion yuan for H1 2025, a slight decrease of 1.26% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 15.64% to 1.936 billion yuan [1]. - The company is a leader in the bus export market, achieving a market share of 24.71% in Q2 2025, with significant growth in overseas sales [3]. - The implementation of a vehicle replacement policy is expected to boost domestic demand for new energy buses, with a reported 10.87% increase in domestic bus sales in H1 2025 [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 9.712 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.08% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 51.33% [2]. - The net profit for Q2 2025 was 1.181 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.11% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 56.36% [2]. - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 22.94%, with a net margin of 12.36%, showing improvements in product structure [2]. Market Expansion - The company exported 15,828 buses in Q2 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 27.48% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 46.49% [3]. - The export of medium and large new energy buses reached 794 units in Q2 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 8.77% and a significant quarter-on-quarter increase of 184.59% [3]. Investment Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 42.25 billion yuan, 48.55 billion yuan, and 55.89 billion yuan, respectively [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 4.546 billion yuan in 2025, increasing to 5.983 billion yuan by 2027 [4]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 2.05 yuan, 2.39 yuan, and 2.70 yuan, respectively [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its Q1 2025 results, showing a slight decline in revenue but an increase in net profit, indicating resilience in profitability despite challenges in sales volume and seasonal effects [1][2]. Revenue Summary - Q1 2025 revenue was 6.418 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.00% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 51.17% [2]. - The company sold 9,011 buses in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.56% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 42.13% [2]. Profitability Summary - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025 was 755 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.91% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 55.18% [2]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 18.89%, down 5.95 percentage points year-on-year and 7.01 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The net profit margin was 12.04%, up 2.02 percentage points year-on-year but down 0.86 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2]. Expense Summary - The expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial costs in Q1 2025 were 3.36%, 2.78%, 4.57%, and 0.12%, respectively, showing minor fluctuations compared to the previous year and quarter [2]. Guidance Summary - The company has set a revenue target of 42.133 billion yuan for 2025, with operating costs and expenses planned at 37.203 billion yuan, reflecting confidence in operational management [2]. Market Expansion Summary - The company is a leader in bus exports, holding an 18.39% market share, with total industry bus exports in Q1 2025 reaching 10,805 units, a year-on-year increase of 17.84% [3]. - The company exported 279 large and medium-sized new energy buses in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 37.16% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 76.36% [3]. - The implementation of a vehicle replacement policy is expected to boost domestic demand for new energy buses [3]. Investment Summary - The company has a tradition of maintaining dividends, with a proposed dividend of 1.0 yuan per share for 2024, totaling 3.32 billion yuan, which corresponds to a dividend yield of 5.44% based on the current stock price [4]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 42.25 billion yuan, 48.55 billion yuan, and 55.89 billion yuan, with net profits of 4.55 billion yuan, 5.30 billion yuan, and 5.98 billion yuan, respectively [4].

0 1 事 件 概 述 公司披露2025年一季度报告，2025年一季度营收64.18亿元，同比-3.00%；归母净利润7.55亿元，同比 +14.91%；扣非归母净利6.42亿元，同比+12.49%。 0 2 分 析 判 断 2024年7月31日交通运输部发布《新能源城市公交车及动力电池更新补贴实施细则》：新能源城市公交车更新 每辆车平均补贴8万元，动力电池更换每辆车平均补贴4.2万元；我们认为，政策的延续和落地有望促进老旧车辆 的更新换代，拉动公司国内新能源公交车销量增长。 0 3 投 资 建 议 ► 2025Q1业绩符合预期 全年指引乐观 1）营收端： 2025Q1营收64.18亿元，同比-3.00%，环比-51.17%。2025Q1公司累计销售客车9,011辆， 同比+16.56%，环比-42.13%。我们认为公司营收环比下降系销售结构变化及季节性影响。 2）利润端： 2025Q1公司实现归母净利润7.55亿元，同比+14.91%，环比-55.18%。公司2025Q1毛利率为18.89%，同 环比分别-5.95pct/-7.01pct，净利率为12.04%，同环比分别+2.02/-0.86pct。我们认 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 2025 performance met expectations, with revenue of 6.418 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.00%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 755 million yuan, an increase of 14.91% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company has a positive outlook for the full year 2025, with a revenue target of 42.133 billion yuan and a cost plan of 37.203 billion yuan, reflecting confidence in operational management [2]. - The company is a leader in the bus export market, with an 18.39% market share, and has accelerated its overseas expansion, having sold over 7,000 new energy buses in more than 40 countries [3]. - Domestic demand for buses is expected to rise due to the implementation of a vehicle replacement policy, which provides subsidies for new energy city buses [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 6.418 billion yuan, down 3.00% year-on-year and down 51.17% quarter-on-quarter. The company sold 9,011 buses in Q1 2025, an increase of 16.56% year-on-year [2]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 18.89%, with a net profit margin of 12.04%, showing slight declines in profitability due to receivables impairment reversals [2]. Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 42.252 billion yuan, 48.550 billion yuan, and 55.886 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 4.546 billion yuan, 5.299 billion yuan, and 5.984 billion yuan [5][10]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 2.05 yuan, 2.39 yuan, and 2.70 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 13, 12, and 10 [4][10]. Dividend Policy - The company has a tradition of maintaining dividends, with a proposed dividend of 1.0 yuan per share for 2024, totaling 3.32 billion yuan, which implies a dividend yield of 5.44% based on the current stock price [4].