01 事件概述 公司披露2025年三季度报告，2025年前三季度营收263.66亿元，同比+9.52%；归母净利润32.92亿元，同比 +35.38%；扣非归母净利26.16亿元，同比+26.29%。其中2025Q3营收102.37亿元，同比+32.27%，环比 +5.40%； 归 母 净 利 润 13.57 亿 元 ， 同 比 +78.98% ， 环 比 +14.94%； 扣 非 归 母 净 利 润 10.66 亿 元 ， 同 比 +66.77%，环比+17.40%。 02 分析判断 ► 2025Q3业绩符合预期 全年业绩韧性可期 1）营收端： 2025Q3营收102.37亿元，同比+32.27%，环比+5.40%，符合预期。2025Q3公司累计销售客 车12,235辆，同比+13.38%，环比-0.61%，带动公司营收同比增长。 2）利润端： 2025Q3公司实现归母净 利润13.57亿元，同比+78.98%，环比+14.94%，优于营收端表现，系产品结构改变影响。公司2025Q3毛利 率为+23.98%，同环比分别+11.66/+1.04pct，同比大幅提升主要系会计准则变更所致。净利率为13.59%， ...

宇通客车（600066.SH）系列点评八 ➢ 客车出海龙头 海外市场拓展加速。2025Q3 行业大中客车累计出口 15,623 辆，同比+58.21%，环比-1.30%。公司是客车出海龙头，2025Q3 出口市场份额 为 29.41%。根据中国客车统计信息网，2025Q3 公司大中型新能源客车出口 1,268 辆，同比+296.25%，环比+59.70%，同比大幅提升。截至 2025H1，公 司已在海外近 60 个国家或地区形成批量销售并实现良好运营，已累计出口各类 客车超 11 万辆，累计出口新能源客车超过 8,000 辆，海外市场拓展加速。 ➢ 公交车以旧换新政策落地 带动国内公交车需求。2024 年 7 月 31 日交通运 输部发布《新能源城市公交车及动力电池更新补贴实施细则》：新能源城市公交 车更新每辆车平均补贴 8 万元，动力电池更换每辆车平均补贴 4.2 万元。根据交 强险口径，2025Q3 国内公交车销量为 6,117 辆，同比+56.49%。我们认为，政 策落地有望促进老旧车辆的更新换代，拉动公司国内新能源公交车销量增长。 ➢ 投资建议：公司长期保持分红传统，2024 年公司每股派发分红 1. ...

Core Viewpoint - Yutong Bus has benefited from high export demand in 2023, with stock prices rising over 339% to peak, but concerns about sustainable growth have emerged due to fluctuations in export data post-July 2024, leading to underperformance compared to the automotive market this year [1] Group 1: Market Concerns - Has Yutong's overseas narrative changed? The company is accelerating its breakthrough under the opportunities presented by new energy, with a focus on high-quality development in bus exports, particularly in the new energy sector [1] - What is the long-term potential for Yutong? The domestic bus market is expected to expand to over 100 billion yuan by 2030, while the overseas market could reach 310 billion yuan, with Yutong's market share projected to increase from 35% to 40% domestically and from 5% to 13% overseas [2] Group 2: Investment Strategy - How to grasp Yutong's investment rhythm? The company’s stock price has historically been closely linked to export volume trends, and it is suggested to focus on long-term industry trends rather than short-term monthly data fluctuations [2] - Are there potential catalysts ahead? An increase in dividend payout ratios could enhance the company's valuation, with a potential adjustment in PE valuation to above 15 times if annual dividends reach 2 yuan per share [3] Group 3: Profit Forecast - Profit forecasts remain stable for the year, with upward adjustments for export volumes in 2026 and 2027 by 7% and 18% respectively, leading to an expected net profit of 49.0 billion yuan in 2025, 62.2 billion yuan in 2026, and 76.2 billion yuan in 2027 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance for the first half of 2025, with significant year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit, driven by increased exports, particularly in the new energy vehicle segment [1][2]. Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 190 million yuan, up 71.6% [1]. - In Q2 2025, revenue reached 2.25 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 52.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 32.7% [1]. - The net profit for Q2 was 110 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 66.1% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 48.8% [1]. Sales and Export Performance - In Q2 2025, the company sold 3,073 buses, a year-on-year decline of 3.6% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.1% [1]. - Export sales exceeded 1,900 units, marking a year-on-year growth of 5.0% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.4%, accounting for 62.0% of total sales [1]. - New energy vehicle exports surpassed 870 units, with a significant year-on-year increase and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 134.0%, representing 45.8% of export sales [1]. Profitability and Cost Management - The overall gross margin for H1 2025 was 15.4%, remaining stable year-on-year [2]. - In Q2 2025, the gross margin improved to 15.6%, up 0.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, with a gross profit margin of 11.5% [2]. - The company maintained effective cost control, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios at 4.1%, 1.2%, 3.1%, and -0.7%, respectively [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is in a period of intensive delivery for overseas orders, including contracts in West Africa, Uzbekistan, and the Bahamas, indicating a growing international market presence [2]. - A share buyback plan of 100 to 200 million yuan was announced, with 6.521 million shares repurchased by July 31, 2025, representing 1.1% of total shares [2]. Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 7.5 billion, 8.77 billion, and 9.91 billion yuan, with net profits of 400 million, 520 million, and 630 million yuan, respectively [3].

宇通客车（600066.SH）系列点评七 25Q2 业绩符合预期 海外增势强劲 2025 年 08 月 26 日 ➢ 事件概述：公司披露 2025 年半年度报告，2025H1 营收 161.29 亿元，同 比-1.26%；归母净利润 19.36 亿元，同比+15.64%；扣非归母净利 15.50 亿元， 同比+8.24%。公司披露 2025 年半年度利润分配方案，每股派发现金股利 0.5 元，合计派发现金红利 11.07 亿元。 ➢ 2025Q2 业绩符合预期 全年业绩韧性可期。1）营收端：2025Q2 营收 97.12 亿元，同比-0.08%，环比+51.33%，符合预期。2025Q2 公司累计销售客车 12,310 辆，同比-4.01%，环比+36.61%。我们认为公司营收同比小幅下降系去年同期高 基数所致，环比上升系季节性影响。2）利润端：2025Q2 公司实现归母净利润 11.81 亿元，同比+16.11%，环比+56.36%，优于营收端表现。公司 2025Q2 毛 利率为 22.94%，同环比分别-3.16/+4.05pct，同比下滑主要系会计准则变更所 致。净利率为 12.36%，同环比分别+1. ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its Q1 2025 results, showing a slight decline in revenue but an increase in net profit, indicating resilience in profitability despite challenges in sales volume and seasonal effects [1][2]. Revenue Summary - Q1 2025 revenue was 6.418 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.00% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 51.17% [2]. - The company sold 9,011 buses in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.56% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 42.13% [2]. Profitability Summary - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025 was 755 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.91% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 55.18% [2]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 18.89%, down 5.95 percentage points year-on-year and 7.01 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The net profit margin was 12.04%, up 2.02 percentage points year-on-year but down 0.86 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2]. Expense Summary - The expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial costs in Q1 2025 were 3.36%, 2.78%, 4.57%, and 0.12%, respectively, showing minor fluctuations compared to the previous year and quarter [2]. Guidance Summary - The company has set a revenue target of 42.133 billion yuan for 2025, with operating costs and expenses planned at 37.203 billion yuan, reflecting confidence in operational management [2]. Market Expansion Summary - The company is a leader in bus exports, holding an 18.39% market share, with total industry bus exports in Q1 2025 reaching 10,805 units, a year-on-year increase of 17.84% [3]. - The company exported 279 large and medium-sized new energy buses in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 37.16% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 76.36% [3]. - The implementation of a vehicle replacement policy is expected to boost domestic demand for new energy buses [3]. Investment Summary - The company has a tradition of maintaining dividends, with a proposed dividend of 1.0 yuan per share for 2024, totaling 3.32 billion yuan, which corresponds to a dividend yield of 5.44% based on the current stock price [4]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 42.25 billion yuan, 48.55 billion yuan, and 55.89 billion yuan, with net profits of 4.55 billion yuan, 5.30 billion yuan, and 5.98 billion yuan, respectively [4].

0 1 事 件 概 述 公司披露2025年一季度报告，2025年一季度营收64.18亿元，同比-3.00%；归母净利润7.55亿元，同比 +14.91%；扣非归母净利6.42亿元，同比+12.49%。 0 2 分 析 判 断 2024年7月31日交通运输部发布《新能源城市公交车及动力电池更新补贴实施细则》：新能源城市公交车更新 每辆车平均补贴8万元，动力电池更换每辆车平均补贴4.2万元；我们认为，政策的延续和落地有望促进老旧车辆 的更新换代，拉动公司国内新能源公交车销量增长。 0 3 投 资 建 议 ► 2025Q1业绩符合预期 全年指引乐观 1）营收端： 2025Q1营收64.18亿元，同比-3.00%，环比-51.17%。2025Q1公司累计销售客车9,011辆， 同比+16.56%，环比-42.13%。我们认为公司营收环比下降系销售结构变化及季节性影响。 2）利润端： 2025Q1公司实现归母净利润7.55亿元，同比+14.91%，环比-55.18%。公司2025Q1毛利率为18.89%，同 环比分别-5.95pct/-7.01pct，净利率为12.04%，同环比分别+2.02/-0.86pct。我们认 ...

➢ 2025Q1 业绩符合预期 全年指引乐观。1）营收端：2025Q1 营收 64.18 亿 元，同比-3.00%，环比-51.17%。2025Q1 公司累计销售客车 9,011 辆，同比 +16.56%，环比-42.13%。我们认为公司营收环比下降系销售结构变化及季节性 影响。2）利润端：2025Q1 公司实现归母净利润 7.55 亿元，同比+14.91%，环 比-55.18%。公司 2025Q1 毛利率为 18.89%，同环比分别-5.95pct/-7.01pct， 净利率为 12.04%，同环比分别+2.02/-0.86pct。我们认为公司 2025Q1 盈利能 力环比略有下降系应收回款减值冲回影响所致。3）费用端：2025Q1 销售/管理 /研发/财务费用率分别为 3.36%/2.78%/4.57%/0.12%，同比分别-3.50/-0.04/- 0.13/+0.65pct，环比分别-0.10/+1.36/-0.56/+0.76pct，系正常费用波动。4） 指引：根据公司年报，2025 年公司收入计划为 421.33 亿元，营业成本及费用计 划为 372.03 亿元，体现公司对经营管理的充分信心。 ➢ ...