大中客车

Search documents
商用车行业2025年度中期投资策略:政策托底需求企稳,新能源创造机遇
Changjiang Securities· 2025-07-09 09:44
Group 1 - The report highlights a stable demand supported by policies and opportunities created by new energy vehicles in the commercial vehicle sector, projecting a 14.7% year-on-year increase in heavy truck sales to 1.03 million units by 2025 [4][12][50] - The report anticipates that the sales of medium and large buses will reach 124,000 units in 2025, reflecting a 7.7% year-on-year growth, driven by the "old-for-new" policy and strong demand for tourism and public transport [4][12][11] Group 2 - In the heavy truck segment, the wholesale sales for January to April 2025 were 353,000 units, showing a slight decline of 0.6% year-on-year, while the registration volume increased by 11.0% to 222,000 units [9][24] - The report indicates that the penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks reached 21.0% in the first four months of 2025, a significant increase of 7.0 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024, with sales of new energy heavy trucks growing by 190.1% year-on-year [10][44] Group 3 - The report notes that the export of heavy trucks in the first four months of 2025 was 96,000 units, a slight decrease of 2.5% year-on-year, but still maintaining high demand levels, particularly in Asia and Africa [10][46][49] - The report emphasizes that the "old-for-new" policy is expected to bolster domestic demand, with the heavy truck industry projected to experience double-digit growth in 2025 [12][50]