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中美AI竞逐:模型与资本开支差距缩小 财通证券称联想有望走出慢牛趋势
Ge Long Hui· 2025-09-18 08:21
Group 1 - The gap in AI model and capital expenditure between Chinese and American internet companies is narrowing, with major global models led by OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Tesla, while Chinese companies like DeepSeek and Alibaba's Tongyi Qwen are emerging in the first tier [1] - The GPQA test results show that the top 25 models are primarily composed of OpenAI, Anthropic, Microsoft, Google, and Meta, with a low representation from Chinese companies; DeepSeek-V3/R1 is expected to disrupt the global AI landscape upon its release in late 2024 or early 2025, representing China's open-source model aligning with SOTA [1] Group 2 - Major tech companies are heavily investing in large model training, boosting their own computing power demand through training and inference; cloud providers are also offering large model APIs on their platforms, leading to increased external computing power supply [2] - Capital expenditure (CapEx) density for Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon reached 34.8%, 23.3%, 35.8%, and 18.7% respectively in Q2 2025; Chinese internet giants like Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent saw significant year-on-year increases in CapEx of 10.2%, 162.7%, and 319.1% to 2.3 billion, 31.8 billion, and 36.6 billion yuan respectively [2] - Chinese internet companies are accelerating their AI investments, although their CapEx as a percentage of revenue still lags behind that of overseas giants by about a year [2] Group 3 - Investment recommendations include Meituan, which has potential for valuation recovery; Kingdee International, benefiting from sustained growth in cloud business and subscription transformation; Lenovo Group, expected to enter a slow bull trend with AI PC product cycles; and Tencent Holdings, recommended as a long-term preference [2]