Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the profit forecast for Shenzhen International (00152) for 2025 and 2026, with a target price of HKD 9.38, indicating a potential upside of 23.8% from the current stock price [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's 1H25 performance met expectations, with revenue of HKD 6.67 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, and a net profit of HKD 490 million, down 24.9% year-on-year, primarily due to a one-time tax benefit from the previous year [2] - Revenue from the toll road and environmental protection business remained stable, with toll road revenue at HKD 2.64 billion, essentially flat year-on-year, while the environmental protection business saw a 2% increase to HKD 810 million, achieving a net profit of HKD 95.32 million [3] Group 2: Business Segments - The logistics and port business faced challenges, with logistics park revenue up 5% to HKD 790 million, but net profit down 90% to HKD 55.91 million due to high base effects from the previous year [3] - Port revenue decreased by 13% to HKD 1.39 billion, with net profit down 72% to HKD 1.204 million, attributed to slowing market demand and increased competition [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The logistics park's closed-loop model is expected to continue contributing to performance, with projected tax-adjusted gains of HKD 2.367 billion from the first phase of the South China logistics park [4] - The company aims to enhance cash flow through public REIT expansions and private fund issuances, leveraging asset appreciation [4] Group 4: Dividend Policy - The company has a stable dividend policy, with an average payout ratio of 51% over the past five years, leading to an attractive dividend yield of 9.7% for 2025/2026 based on profit forecasts [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Shen High-Speed (深高速), reported a year-on-year increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by reduced financing costs and improved performance in its environmental protection segment [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Shen High-Speed achieved approximately 3.919 billion yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 4.3% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was around 960 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 24.04% compared to the same period last year [1]. - Toll revenue reached approximately 2.449 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.64%. Excluding the impact of a project no longer included in the consolidation, the toll revenue grew by 4.31% year-on-year [1]. Business Segments - The toll road business accounted for about 63% of the company's total revenue, while the environmental protection segment was the second-largest business area [1]. - The environmental protection segment showed a reduction in losses, with the company managing over 6,300 tons per day of organic waste treatment and operating 18 projects commercially [2][3]. Operational Developments - The company has initiated major projects, including the Shenzhen Outer Ring Phase III, which is 20% complete and expected to be operational by the end of 2028 [2]. - The company is also advancing the expansion of the Ji-Hu Expressway, which has completed 12% of its construction [2]. Cost Management and Financing - The company reported a decrease in financing costs, with the overall borrowing cost dropping to 2.57% in the first half of 2025 from 3.19% in 2024 [3]. - New borrowings of approximately 11.5 billion yuan were made at an average cost of 2.07%, which is 0.44 percentage points lower than in 2024 [3]. - The company successfully replaced high-interest foreign currency debt with low-cost RMB funds, reducing financial expenses by 30% year-on-year [4].

Summary of the Conference Call for Shen High-Speed (深高速) Company Overview - Shen High-Speed reported a revenue of 1.772 billion yuan for Q1 2025, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 478 million yuan, showing a slight year-on-year increase. The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses grew nearly 16% year-on-year, with earnings per share at 0.203 yuan [2][4] Key Financial Performance - For the full year 2024, Shen High-Speed achieved a revenue of 9.25 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.15 billion yuan, with earnings per share at 0.411 yuan. The decline in profit was mainly due to reduced revenue from the joint venture in real estate and asset impairment provisions made at the end of 2024 [4] Toll Road Business - The toll road business remained stable, with daily toll revenue in the Shenzhen area increasing, particularly benefiting from the opening of new roads. The average daily toll revenue for the Yangtze River Highway increased by 18% [2][7] Environmental Business - Shen High-Speed is actively expanding its environmental business, with an organic waste processing capacity exceeding 6,900 tons per day. In Q1 2025, 17 projects were in commercial operation, processing 320,000 tons of waste and generating revenue of 174 million yuan. However, the overall environmental business is currently operating at a loss, and the company plans to be cautious in future investments in clean energy [2][8][21][22] Financing and Debt Management - The company completed a private placement in March 2025, raising approximately 4.7 billion yuan. Additionally, it raised 7.3 billion yuan through various debt instruments, optimizing its debt structure and reducing financing costs. The comprehensive borrowing cost was approximately 3.19% [2][9][26] Future Development Strategy - Shen High-Speed is focused on advancing key highway projects, including the Outer Ring Phase III and the expansion of the Guangshen Expressway. A new five-year development strategy has been initiated, with the Outer Ring Phase III expected to be completed by the end of 2029 [2][11][15][16] Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and Investment Strategy - The internal rate of return (IRR) requirement for toll road and environmental projects has been adjusted to 6%-7%, still above the industry average. The company remains open to acquiring quality toll road projects but emphasizes profitability and regional barriers [5][17][18] Shareholder Returns and Capital Expenditure - Shen High-Speed is committed to returning at least 55% of net profits to shareholders in cash dividends from 2024 to 2026, with expectations of exceeding 60% in 2024. The planned capital expenditure for 2025-2027 is approximately 20.6 billion yuan, primarily for the Outer Ring Phase III and other projects [5][25][24] Impact of Road Network Changes - The opening of new roads and other structural changes in the road network have had a mixed impact on traffic flow, with overall positive factors outweighing negatives. The company is monitoring these changes closely [14] Conclusion - Shen High-Speed is navigating a complex landscape with stable performance in its toll road business, ongoing challenges in its environmental sector, and a clear focus on strategic growth and shareholder returns. The company is poised for future developments while maintaining a cautious approach to investments and financing.