大湾区核心路产，固本提质行稳致远 深高速(600548) 证券研究报告 铁路公路 / 公司深度研究报告 / 2025.12.30 | 投资评级:增持(首次) | | | --- | --- | | 基本数据 | 2025-12-29 | | 收盘价(元) | 8.88 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 24.62 | | 每股净资产(元) | 9.21 | 最近 12 月市场表现 -32% -21% -11% -1% 9% 19% 深高速 沪深300 分析师 祝玉波 SAC 证书编号：S0160525100001 zhuyb01@ctsec.com 联系人 史亚州 shiyz01@ctsec.com 相关报告 核心观点 | 盈利预测 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [币种Table_FinchinaSimple] (人民币) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业收入(百万元) | 9,295 | 9,246 | 10,245 | 10,501 | 11,270 | | 收入增长率(%) ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has successfully completed a directed issuance of 4.706 billion yuan to support major infrastructure projects, enhancing its capital structure and market confidence [1][2] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved an operating revenue of 6.05 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.2% - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.47 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 7% [1] Strategic Developments - The company is undertaking a series of strategic projects to enhance traffic capacity and network value, establishing a sustainable growth trajectory - The second phase of the Yangtze River Expressway is set to open in mid-2024, improving traffic flow between the east and west banks of the Pearl River - The main construction of the Jihe Expressway expansion has commenced, aiming to upgrade to a dual-direction 8+8 lane highway by 2029, which will serve as a major corridor in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area - The third phase of the Outer Ring Expressway has begun construction, expected to be completed by the end of 2028, forming a key part of Shenzhen's high-speed road network [1] Capital Structure and Shareholder Returns - The recent capital increase not only secures funding for major projects but also optimizes the company's capital structure, with support from major shareholders and strategic investments from state-owned enterprises in Jiangsu and Anhui - The company has maintained a high and sustainable cash dividend policy, distributing cash dividends to shareholders for 27 consecutive years, with a commitment to a minimum annual cash dividend ratio of 55% of the net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders from 2024 to 2026 [2]

Core Viewpoint - Wuzhou Transportation has received regulatory measures from the Guangxi Securities Regulatory Bureau due to issues related to accounting irregularities and failure to conduct integrity checks on proposed senior management appointments [1][2]. Group 1: Regulatory Actions - The Guangxi Securities Regulatory Bureau issued a corrective order to Wuzhou Transportation for non-compliance with accounting standards and improper revenue recognition practices from 2022 to 2024 [1]. - The company failed to conduct required integrity checks on proposed directors and senior management, violating relevant regulations [1]. Group 2: Company Response - Wuzhou Transportation emphasizes its commitment to addressing the issues raised by the regulatory body and plans to enhance its financial management and compliance practices [2]. - The company will prepare a rectification report within the stipulated timeframe as per the regulatory requirements [2]. Group 3: Business Overview - Wuzhou Transportation is the only listed company in Guangxi operating toll road businesses, with significant operations in toll collection and logistics [3]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.205 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.86% year-on-year, and a net profit of 508 million yuan, down 10.26% year-on-year [3].

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 9.406 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 5.56%. Excluding construction revenue, the revenue decline is 0.99% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.424 billion yuan, down 11.81% year-on-year. Despite a 4.31% increase in gross profit, net profit decreased due to reduced investment income from joint ventures and changes in dividend cycles from Jiangsu Bank [1][2] - The toll road business saw a slight increase in revenue, with a total toll income of 4.604 billion yuan, up 1.65% year-on-year, and a gross margin increase of 2.51 percentage points to 63.21% [1] Revenue Breakdown - The core asset, the Huning Expressway, generated 2.663 billion yuan in revenue, with a daily average income increase of 8.18%. This was influenced by construction on the Huwu Expressway, which redirected some traffic to the Huning Expressway, while the Ningchang Expressway saw a daily income decrease of 15.59% [1] - The Xiyi Expressway and Changyi Expressway experienced daily toll income declines of 28.08% and 12.28%, respectively, due to partial closures for construction on the Huyiyi Expressway. Conversely, the Wufengshan Bridge saw a daily toll income increase of 13.08% due to traffic rerouting from closed sections [1] Cost and Investment Income - Operating costs, excluding construction impacts, decreased by 6.37% year-on-year, with toll road business costs at 1.694 billion yuan, down 4.84%. This reduction was primarily due to a significant drop in maintenance costs from 215 million yuan to 114 million yuan [2] - Investment income totaled 700 million yuan, a decrease of 33.24% from the previous year, mainly due to reduced earnings from joint venture road and bridge companies and a change in the dividend cycle from Jiangsu Bank, resulting in a 54.38% decline in dividends received [2] Profit Forecast and Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 5.09 billion yuan, 5.17 billion yuan, and 5.38 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding EPS of 1.01, 1.03, and 1.07 yuan, leading to PE ratios of 13.3X, 13.1X, and 12.6X [3] - The company is strategically located in the core area of the Yangtze River Delta, focusing on its main business with strong operational capabilities, leading to a "recommended" rating [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong performance in H1 2025, with significant growth in net profit and revenue, driven by various operational efficiencies and strategic projects [1][4]. Revenue Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 3.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 960 million yuan, up 24.0% [1]. - In Q2 2025, the company recorded operating revenue of 2.15 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.9%, and a net profit of 480 million yuan, which is a 59.1% increase [1]. Toll Revenue and Business Segments - Toll revenue in H1 2025 was 2.45 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.6% year-on-year; excluding the impact of the Yichang Expressway, the revenue grew by 4.3% [2]. - The gross margin for the toll road business was 49.3%, a decrease of 1.15 percentage points, attributed to increased maintenance costs and depreciation [2]. - Clean energy generation revenue decreased by 4.2% to 290 million yuan, while kitchen waste treatment revenue increased by 26.2% to 390 million yuan [2]. Financial Performance - Financial expenses decreased to 390 million yuan, down 170 million yuan year-on-year, due to lower financing rates and a slight appreciation of the yuan [3]. - Fair value gains increased by 110 million yuan to 80 million yuan, contributing positively to profits [3]. - The company recorded a total impairment provision of 90 million yuan, a decrease of 40 million yuan year-on-year [3]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts revenues of 9.61 billion yuan, 10.07 billion yuan, and 10.49 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.94%, 4.74%, and 4.22% respectively [4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.76 billion yuan, 1.85 billion yuan, and 1.88 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 53.81%, 4.92%, and 1.70% respectively [4]. - The company maintains a "buy" rating due to its strategic location advantages in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Shen High-Speed (深高速), reported a year-on-year increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by reduced financing costs and improved performance in its environmental protection segment [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Shen High-Speed achieved approximately 3.919 billion yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 4.3% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was around 960 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 24.04% compared to the same period last year [1]. - Toll revenue reached approximately 2.449 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.64%. Excluding the impact of a project no longer included in the consolidation, the toll revenue grew by 4.31% year-on-year [1]. Business Segments - The toll road business accounted for about 63% of the company's total revenue, while the environmental protection segment was the second-largest business area [1]. - The environmental protection segment showed a reduction in losses, with the company managing over 6,300 tons per day of organic waste treatment and operating 18 projects commercially [2][3]. Operational Developments - The company has initiated major projects, including the Shenzhen Outer Ring Phase III, which is 20% complete and expected to be operational by the end of 2028 [2]. - The company is also advancing the expansion of the Ji-Hu Expressway, which has completed 12% of its construction [2]. Cost Management and Financing - The company reported a decrease in financing costs, with the overall borrowing cost dropping to 2.57% in the first half of 2025 from 3.19% in 2024 [3]. - New borrowings of approximately 11.5 billion yuan were made at an average cost of 2.07%, which is 0.44 percentage points lower than in 2024 [3]. - The company successfully replaced high-interest foreign currency debt with low-cost RMB funds, reducing financial expenses by 30% year-on-year [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue increase of 4.30% and a net profit increase of 24.04% for the first half of 2025, driven by reduced interest expenses, improved performance in environmental services, and changes in asset fair value [2] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved an operating income of 3.919 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 960 million yuan, with earnings per share of 0.382 yuan [2] - Toll revenue reached 2.449 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.64%, and a 4.31% increase when adjusted for the exclusion of Yichang Expressway from the consolidated scope [2] Business Operations - The company’s organic waste treatment business saw a reduction in losses due to optimized management and increased waste disposal and oil extraction volumes [2] - The company plans to enhance communication with government departments to promote project commercialization and implement pricing mechanisms to improve profitability in the organic waste treatment sector [2] Project Development - Ongoing construction projects are progressing well, with the Outer Ring Phase III and the Jihe Expressway expansion both underway, achieving 20% and 12% completion respectively [3] - The company issued 9.3 billion yuan in short-term financing instruments to refinance existing debt and supplement working capital, while also successfully completing an A-share private placement to strengthen capital [3] Strategic Planning - The company aims to enhance existing projects and focus on core business areas, particularly toll road operations and improving the profitability of environmental projects [3] - A strategic plan for the 14th Five-Year Plan is being developed, focusing on national policy directions, industry trends, and technological innovations to ensure sustainable high-quality development [3]

Core Viewpoint - In the first half of 2025, Wuzhou Transportation reported revenue growth of less than 3% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by over 10%, indicating a trend of increasing costs and declining profitability [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved revenue of 813.2 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.98%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 316.3 million yuan, down 10.46% compared to the previous year [2]. - In Q1 2025, revenue was 406.7 million yuan (up 0.4% year-on-year) and net profit was 195.8 million yuan (down 8.17% year-on-year). In Q2 2025, revenue was 406.5 million yuan (up 5.7% year-on-year) and net profit was 120.4 million yuan (down 13.95% year-on-year) [2]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The company's gross margin has been declining, with a significant drop from 60.06% in 2023 to 47.37% in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 14.93 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - Operating costs surged by 43.77% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, far exceeding revenue growth, leading to a decline in net profit margin from 44.39% in the first half of 2023 to 38.67% in the first half of 2025 [4]. Business Segment Performance - The core toll road business, which accounts for nearly 70% of revenue, has been underperforming due to economic downturns and competition from alternative routes, resulting in a revenue decline of 6.11% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [5][6]. - The logistics business also faced challenges, with revenue fluctuations and a significant increase in operating costs, leading to minimal profit growth despite a 37.43% increase in revenue in the first half of 2025 [7]. Investment Plans and Risks - The company plans to invest over 20 billion yuan in the expansion and renovation of the Tanbai Highway to enhance profitability, but faces significant funding challenges, with only 312 million yuan in cash available against a funding requirement of 4.086 billion yuan [8][9]. - The project is expected to take four years and aims to improve asset quality and expand the highway's capacity, but there are uncertainties regarding traffic volume and revenue generation post-completion [10].

Summary of Zhongyuan Expressway Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - Zhongyuan Expressway primarily operates in the toll road industry, with over 90% of its revenue derived from toll fees, making it a significant player in the highway sector in Henan Province, China [2][4][3]. Core Points and Arguments - **Revenue Composition**: The company's revenue is predominantly from toll road operations, with minimal contributions from real estate and other services [2][4]. - **Profit Performance**: The company has shown stable profit performance over the years, with notable fluctuations in 2020 and 2022 due to the pandemic's impact on traffic volume and toll fee exemptions [2][6]. - **Future Profitability**: It is anticipated that as the macro economy recovers, traffic volume will increase, particularly with the expected opening of the Zhenglu Expressway by the end of 2026, which will provide additional profit elasticity [2][7][10]. - **Gross Margin Improvement**: The gross margin is expected to improve from 2025 to 2027 due to ongoing financial and management optimizations [5][7]. - **Dividend Policy**: The company has a relatively low dividend payout ratio compared to its peers, committing to a 40% payout, with an actual payout of approximately 43% last year, below the industry average of 52% [2][8]. The expected dividend yield for 2025 is around 4%, increasing to 4.6% by 2026 [8]. Additional Important Insights - **Asset Optimization**: The company is actively optimizing its assets and reducing financial costs, which may lead to a revaluation of its overall value [3][5]. - **Real Estate Focus**: There is a strategic focus on consolidating the real estate segment, with potential divestment from non-core real estate operations to enhance focus on the main toll road business [2][9]. - **Long-term Cash Flow Stability**: The weighted average toll collection period exceeds 17 years, ensuring long-term stable cash flow, with all road assets having a remaining life of over 10 years [2][9]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding Zhongyuan Expressway's operations, financial performance, and strategic outlook.

Group 1 - The stock price of Wuzhou Transportation is reported at 4.33 yuan, down 0.06 yuan from the previous trading day, with a decline of 1.37% [1] - The company operates in the railway and highway sector, focusing on toll road operations, commercial logistics, and asset management, and is registered in Guangxi, aligning with the Belt and Road Initiative [1] - For the first half of 2025, Wuzhou Transportation reported total operating revenue of 813 million yuan, an increase of 2.98% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 10.46% to 316 million yuan [1] - The net cash flow from operating activities for the company was 400 million yuan, down 25.73% year-on-year, with basic earnings per share at 0.1965 yuan and a weighted average return on equity of 4.55% [1] Group 2 - On the day of reporting, Wuzhou Transportation experienced a net outflow of main funds amounting to 7.75 million yuan, with a cumulative net outflow of 9.20 million yuan over the past five days [2]