油料日报 | 2025-10-10 花生上市节奏不一，区域价差扩大 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2511合约3975.00元/吨，较前日变化+48.00元/吨，幅度+1.22%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A11+245，较前日变化-48，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：东北地区国庆期间新粮逐步增量，40左右蛋白毛粮收购价1.9元/斤，41蛋白1.95元/斤，低蛋白价格 1.8-1.85元/斤，据反映因天气影响今年蛋白含量偏低，但整体产量预计影响不大，单产或在350-400斤/亩区间，目 前下游需求表现一般，粮贸企业收购谨慎，优质资源较为抢手，普通豆价格表现一般。黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一 等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.11元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装 车报价2.10元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.07元/斤，较昨日 平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.22元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市 场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.19元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江绥化海伦市 ...

大豆市场行情暂稳，盘面震荡调整 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2511合约3938.00元/吨，较前日变化+3.00元/吨，幅度+0.08%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A11+282，较前日变化-3，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.11元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝 清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.10元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋 白中粒塔粮装车报价2.07元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.22 元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.19元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江绥 化海伦市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.20元/斤，较昨日平。 油料日报 | 2025-09-30 昨日豆一期货价格震荡运行，国内大豆陆续上市，东北产区供应宽松，价格承压走弱，农户惜售，贸易商收购积 极性清淡，市场成交一般。 策略 中性 风险 无 花生观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘花生2511合约7822.00元/吨，较前日变化 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][4] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The demand for peanuts is weak, and prices are continuously fluctuating. The new - season soybeans in major producing areas are gradually coming onto the market, with overall good supply and price pressure [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary of Soybean - Related Content Market Analysis - In the futures market, the closing price of the soybeans 2511 contract yesterday was 3907.00 yuan/ton, a change of +29.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of +0.75%. In the spot market, the basis of edible soybeans was A11 + 313, a change of - 29 from the previous day, a decrease of 32.14% [1] - New - season soybeans in Northeast China are gradually coming onto the market, with the purchase price of raw grains between 1.8 - 2 yuan/jin. Due to climate impact this year, the protein content has declined, and the prices of high - protein sources are firm. In the south, Jiangsu large - white - skinned soybeans have recently come onto the market, with raw grain prices of 2.7 - 2.9 yuan/jin and clean grain prices of 3 - 3.15 yuan/jin. Yesterday, the soybean futures price fluctuated. The purchase price in the Northeast is weak, while the price in the South is stable. Overall supply is good, and prices are under pressure [1][2] Group 4: Summary of Peanut - Related Content Market Analysis - In the futures market, the closing price of the peanut 2511 contract yesterday was 7762.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 6.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of - 0.08%. In the spot market, the average peanut price was 8440.00 yuan/ton, a change of +10.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of +0.12%. The basis was PK11 + 438.00, a change of +6.00 from the previous day, an increase of +1.39% [3] - The average price of national peanut general rice is 4.22 yuan/jin, basically stable. Shandong oil mills' contract purchase price for general rice is 8400 yuan/ton, and Henan oil mills' is 7800 yuan/ton. New peanut - producing areas are increasing, but the overall supply is still small. With the approaching of the Double Festival, downstream stocking demand is still weak, and oil mills' contract purchase prices are stable with limited purchases [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][4][5] Group 2: Report's Core View - For soybeans, the policy continues to promote soybean auction sales, increasing supply pressure, while demand is weak. The dynamic of Sino-US trade relations in the imported soybean market may affect the long - term supply pattern, and domestic supply - demand is also influenced by policy and imported soybeans. For peanuts, new - season planting area has a slight increase, and the total output is expected to remain high. Short - term supply has slowed due to weather in Henan, and the long - term market depends on weather and demand [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Market Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the Douyi 2511 contract yesterday was 3935.00 yuan/ton, down 39.00 yuan/ton (-0.98%) from the previous day. - Spot: The edible soybean spot basis was A11 + 305, up 39 (+32.14%) from the previous day. In the Northeast market, soybean prices were stable with a downward trend. New - season soybean growth is smooth, and there is an expectation of a good harvest. As new beans approach the market and state - reserve old grains are released, supply pressure may become prominent [1][2] Market Information - In Heilongjiang, prices in some regions dropped, such as in Harbin, the price was 2.12 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin; in Shuangyashan, it was 2.11 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin; in Jiamusi, it was 2.10 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin. Prices in some other regions remained flat [2] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [3] Peanut Market Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract yesterday was 7800.00 yuan/ton, down 34.00 yuan/ton (-0.43%) from the previous day. - Spot: The average peanut spot price was 8420.00 yuan/ton, down 50.00 yuan/ton (-0.59%) month - on - month. The spot basis was PK10 + 300.00, up 34.00 (+12.78%) month - on - month. The national average price of general old peanut kernels was 4.24 yuan/jin, down 0.08 yuan/jin. New peanut prices in various markets continued to decline weakly [4] Market Information - A Henan oil factory started purchasing oil peanuts at a contract price of about 7300 yuan/ton. New - season peanut planting area has a slight increase, and the total output is expected to remain high. Due to the approaching Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, new peanut moisture and price are unstable, suppressing purchasing enthusiasm. Bad weather in Henan has led to high moisture in peanuts, reducing the short - term supply [4] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [4][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is in a state of temporary tightness within an overall loose framework, mainly due to short - term supply and demand changes. The peanut market shows a significant differentiation during the new - old crop transition period [2][4] Market Analysis of Soybeans Futures and Spot Prices - The closing price of the soybeans 2509 contract was 4107.00 yuan/ton, up 73.00 yuan/ton (+1.81%) from the previous day. The edible soybean spot basis was A09 + 193, down 73 (-32.14%) from the previous day [1] - The main soybean futures contract rose 1.83% due to short - term supply - demand changes [2] Supply - side Factors - Domestic soybeans have a short - term tight supply due to reduced grassroots surplus, state - reserve purchases, and traders' reserves. The import volume in August decreased and costs rose, and the drought in US soybean - producing areas revised the global supply expectation [2] Demand - side Factors - Policy subsidies, the summer consumption peak, Mid - Autumn Festival stocking, and the recovery of pig farming all contribute to the demand for soybeans, resulting in a temporary tight supply - demand situation [2] Market Analysis of Peanuts Futures and Spot Prices - The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract was 7988.00 yuan/ton, up 44.00 yuan/ton (+0.55%) from the previous day. The average peanut spot price was 8400.00 yuan/ton, down 60.00 yuan/ton (-0.71%) from the previous day. The spot basis was PK10 + 212.00, down 44.00 (-17.19%) from the previous day [3] Market Conditions - The peanut market was volatile and weak. New peanuts were supported by delayed harvests and had strong prices, while old peanuts had weak demand and low - level price adjustments. Terminal demand was weak [3][4] Strategies - The strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment strategy for soybeans: Neutral [3] - Investment strategy for peanuts: Neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The soybeans market is currently in a stalemate with reduced supply and weak demand due to factors such as delayed new - crop listings and hindered demand from soy product factories. However, there may be positive changes in some soybean transactions because of rigid procurement needs [2] - The peanut market is in a period of transition between old and new crops. The old - crop inventory is gradually being digested, and the new - crop listing is delayed by bad weather. The demand side is relatively flat, and traders are cautious in purchasing [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the soybeans 2509 contract yesterday was 4067.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 42.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 1.02% [1] - Spot: The spot basis of edible soybeans was A09 + 233, a change of + 42 from the previous day, an increase of 32.14%. The soybean prices in the Northeast market remained stable yesterday [1] Market Information - The continuous precipitation in the Huanghuai and Jianghuai regions has reduced the short - term listing volume of new soybeans. The operation of soybean product factories is blocked, and the recovery of procurement demand has slowed down [2] Peanuts Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract yesterday was 8074.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 24.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.30% [3] - Spot: The average spot price of peanuts was 8460.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 40.00 yuan/ton compared to the previous period, a decrease of 0.47%. The spot basis was PK10 + 126.00, a change of + 24.00 compared to the previous period, an increase of 23.53% [3] Market Information - The domestic peanut market was in a state of range - bound consolidation. The old - crop inventory is almost digested, and the new - crop listing is affected by bad weather. The demand side is flat, and traders are purchasing cautiously [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [2] Core View of the Report - The soybean market is under supply pressure, with an increase in low - protein soybean supply due to continuous auctions by Cofco, a tightening of high - protein soybeans in traders' hands, and an expected further increase in supply as Hubei's new soybeans are gradually launched. The peanut market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with a relatively light spot trading atmosphere, and peanut prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the Douyi 2509 contract was 4118.00 yuan/ton yesterday, a change of +2.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of +0.05%. Spot: The edible soybean spot basis was A09 + 182, a change of -2 from the previous day, a decrease of 32.14%. Northeast soybean prices were stable today, with high - protein soybean quotes firm due to scarce supply. Douyi continued its narrow - range oscillation yesterday. The continuous auctions by Cofco increased the supply of low - protein soybean spots, the high - protein soybeans in traders' hands became tighter, the market was in a wait - and - see mood, and the supply would increase as Hubei's new soybeans were launched [1] Peanut View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract was 8092.00 yuan/ton yesterday, a change of +6.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of +0.07%. Spot: The average peanut spot price was 8500.00 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day, an increase of +0.00%. The spot basis was PK10 + 108.00, a change of -6.00 from the previous day, a decrease of -5.26%. The domestic peanut market was oscillating steadily yesterday, with the average price of common peanuts at 4.25 yuan/jin. The shipping speed in the producing areas has accelerated slightly, mainly inventory transactions. The market was generally quiet, and prices were basically stable. Peanuts continued their narrow - range oscillation yesterday. The domestic peanut market showed a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the trading atmosphere was light. Given the weak terminal demand and the slow progress of new peanut listing, the overall trading atmosphere remained cautious. Peanut prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for soybeans and peanuts is neutral [4][5] Group 2: Report's Core View - Under the continuation of Sino - US tariff policies, the oilseed market is oscillating. The soybean supply is expected to remain loose, and the peanut market is generally weak with low downstream consumption and cautious middlemen [1][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Soybean Market - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing price of the soy - one 2509 contract was 4153.00 yuan/ton, up 9.00 yuan/ton (+0.22%) from the previous day. The edible soybean spot basis was A09 + 147, down 9 (-32.14%) from the previous day. On Tuesday, CBOT soybean futures fell for the third consecutive day, with the benchmark contract down 0.3%. Northeast soybean prices were stable, with remaining grain mostly consumed and limited trader inventories [1][2] - **Market Factors**: The Sino - US negotiation result maintained the previous "reciprocal tariff" rate, and the US soybean export expectation had no substantial change. The soybean crop in the Northeast was growing well, and the supply was expected to be loose [3] Peanut Market - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract was 8106.00 yuan/ton, up 4.00 yuan/ton (+0.05%) from the previous day. The average peanut spot price was 8580.00 yuan/ton, down 40.00 yuan/ton (-0.46%) month - on - month. The spot basis was PK10 + 94.00, down 4.00 (-4.08%) month - on - month. The domestic peanut market was oscillating slightly downward, with the average price of common peanuts at 4.29 yuan/jin [4] - **Market Factors**: The peanut market was generally weak, with a sluggish downstream consumption environment, light trading, increased operating difficulties for middlemen, and strong risk - aversion sentiment [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the soybean and peanut markets is neutral [4][8] Core Viewpoints - The oil market continues to fluctuate during the off - season of market consumption. The soybean market has a tight supply of domestic beans, and although it is in the consumption off - season, the bottom of the soybean price is supported. The peanut market is in a state of weak and narrow - range fluctuation, with a lack of obvious one - way driving factors [1][3][7] Summary by Directory Soybean Market Analysis Market News and Important Data - **Price Quotes**: The closing price of the main soybean contract 2509 this week was 4,225 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 36 yuan or 0.9%. The spot basis of edible beans in different regions has changed to varying degrees [1] Soybean Supply and Demand - **Arrival Forecast**: In July 2025, Brazilian soybeans arriving in China are expected to be 10.82 million tons, Argentine soybeans 1.19 million tons, and US soybeans 0 tons, totaling 12.01 million tons. The remaining grain in the Northeast is scarce, and the supply of domestic beans is relatively tight. The auction of old grain and the small - scale listing of early - maturing new soybeans in Hubei have alleviated some supply pressure [2] Market Analysis - The price center of the main soybean futures contract 2509 on the Dalian Commodity Exchange continued to move up this week. The soybean price in the Northeast remained stable due to limited supply, while the prices in the Yangtze and Yellow River production areas were slightly weak. The domestic soybean market is in a state of shortage between old and new crops, and the overall sales are not good due to the consumption off - season, but the bottom of the price is supported [3] Peanut Market Analysis Market News and Important Data - **Price Quotes**: The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract this week was 8,138 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 84 yuan or 1%. The spot basis in different regions has changed to varying degrees [4] Peanut Supply and Demand - As of July 24, the peanut inventory of domestic peanut oil sample enterprises was 107,050 tons, a decrease of 4,360 tons from last week [5] Oil Mills - **Arrival Situation**: The arrival volume of oil mills this week was 640 tons, a decrease from last week. The domestic market for commercial peanuts had low arrival volume, and traders were cautious in purchasing, mainly consuming inventory. The overall market trading was light, and most market prices were basically stable [6] Market Analysis - The domestic peanut price fluctuated weakly this week. As of July 24, 2025, the average price of national general peanuts was 8,680 yuan/ton, a 0.23% decrease from last week. The peanut spot market lacked obvious one - way driving factors, and the trading atmosphere remained dull [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for both the soybean and peanut industries are neutral [2][3] 2. Core Views - **Soybean**: The soybean futures showed wide - range fluctuations, and the downstream market's willingness to purchase was weak, resulting in inactive spot trading. The price remained stable. The demand for soy products decreased in summer, and there was no weather - induced production reduction in the soybean - producing areas [1] - **Peanut**: The peanut futures main contract fluctuated within a narrow range. The demand was weak, the supply quality was uneven, and the spot supply - demand was in a stalemate. As the new peanut season approached, the stalling situation continued, with some sellers reducing prices to lock in profits, while buyers were cautious. Attention should be paid to the weather in the producing areas [2] 3. Summary by Related Content **Soybean Market** - **Futures and Spot Market Data**: The closing price of the soybean 2509 contract was 4224.00 yuan/ton, up 7.00 yuan/ton (0.17%) from the previous day. The edible soybean spot basis was A09 + 76, down 7 (32.14%) from the previous day [1] - **Market Information**: Northeast traders' mentality was stable, and some areas' inventories were running out. The prices of standard - grade first - class soybean with 39% protein in Heilongjiang remained unchanged [1] **Peanut Market** - **Futures and Spot Market Data**: The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract was 8130.00 yuan/ton, down 12.00 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous day. The average peanut spot price was 8680.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan/ton (-0.23%) compared to the previous period. The spot basis was PK10 + 70.00, up 12.00 (20.69%) from the previous period [2] - **Market Information**: The peanut spot price in the domestic market was stable with a downward trend. The demand was weak, and the supply - demand was in a stalemate. The rain in Henan was short - lived, and the drought in the south persisted [2]