油料日报 | 2026-02-04 豆一流通偏紧抬价，花生交投趋弱维稳 大豆观点 市场分析 中性 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2605合约4384.00元/吨，较前日变化-9.00元/吨，幅度-0.20%。现货方面，食用豆现货基差 A05+56，较前日变化+9，幅度32.14%。 风险 无 市场资讯汇总：昨日东北地区大豆行情整体持稳，成交方面则因拍卖活动带动表现活跃，市场采购情绪较高，持 货看涨心态较为普遍。现货方面：黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.22元/斤；黑龙江 双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.20元/斤；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白 中粒塔粮装车报价2.22元/斤；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.35元/斤；黑龙 江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.35元/斤；黑龙江绥化海伦市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中 粒塔粮装车报价2.33元/斤。 昨日豆一期货主力合约价格宽幅震荡。昨日中储粮单向拍卖交易呈现显著溢价，当前市场节前备货周期与优质粮 源结构性偏紧格局形成叠加，贸易端惜售挺价意愿持续较强。尽管春 ...

Core Insights - The oilseed industry is crucial for the production of edible oils and plant proteins, with major oilseeds including soybeans, rapeseed, sesame, peanuts, cottonseed, sunflower seeds, and others [1][2] - China is a significant producer and consumer of oilseeds, ranking second only to food crops, with a steady increase in oilseed planting area and production driven by national policies [3][5] - Despite the growth in oilseed production, China remains highly dependent on imports to meet domestic demand due to limited growth in planting area [3][6] Industry Definition and Categories - Oilseeds are defined as plant materials with an oil content greater than 10%, widely cultivated globally for edible oils and plant proteins [2] - Major oilseed types include soybeans, rapeseed, sesame, peanuts, cottonseed, sunflower seeds, and others [2] Current Industry Status - In 2024, China's oilseed planting area is projected to be 14,290 thousand hectares, an increase of 367.8 thousand hectares from 2023 [3] - The oilseed production for 2024 is expected to reach 39.79 million tons, an increase of 1.1534 million tons from 2023 [3] Industry Chain - The oilseed industry chain includes upstream planting, midstream processing, and downstream sales and consumption [5] - Upstream involves the cultivation of oilseed crops and related inputs like seeds, fertilizers, and pesticides [5] - Midstream processing includes the extraction and refining of oils, which is critical for adding value to the industry [5] - Downstream encompasses sales channels and applications in food, feed, bioenergy, and chemical industries [5] Development Environment and Policies - The stability of the oilseed industry is vital for national food security, with high import dependence for edible oils [6] - National policies have been implemented to enhance domestic oilseed production, including promoting crop rotation and developing high-yield varieties [6] - The Central Document No. 1 has focused on increasing soybean production since 2022, with a clear path for production enhancement outlined for 2025 [6] Competitive Landscape - The oilseed market is becoming increasingly competitive, with many small-scale enterprises lacking core competitiveness [6] - Major players like COFCO Group and Yihai Kerry are enhancing their competitiveness through technology and scale [6][8] - COFCO Group operates a comprehensive supply chain across multiple countries, with a revenue of 635 billion yuan in 2024 [8] - Yihai Kerry focuses on sustainable processing and reported a revenue of 91.639 billion yuan from feed and oil technology in 2024 [8][9] Industry Development Trends - The oilseed industry is positioned at the intersection of agriculture and industry, with significant potential for growth in production and consumption [9] - With rising living standards, consumer demand for high-quality oilseed products is diversifying, leading to a trend towards multi-functional and environmentally friendly production [9] - Technological advancements and policy support are expected to drive the stable development of the oilseed industry [9]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The USDA's August supply - demand report is overall bullish, laying the foundation for a tightening of global soybean supply in the second half of the year. In the fourth quarter, the domestic overall oilseed supply will tighten, and the vegetable oil and double - low rapeseed sectors are likely to rise and difficult to fall, suggesting buying on dips [5][8]. 3. Key Points by Category Global Situation - The USDA's August supply - demand report is bullish, with the planted area unexpectedly reduced. The US soybean planted area is 80.9 million acres (July expectation: 83.4 million acres), the harvested area is 80.1 million acres (July expectation: 82.5 million acres), the yield per acre is 53.6 bushels (July expectation: 52.5 bushels), the production is 4.292 billion bushels (July expectation: 4.335 billion bushels), and the ending inventory is 290 million bushels (July expectation: 310 million bushels). Argentina's soybean production is 50.9 million tons (July expectation: 49.9 million tons), Brazil's is 169 million tons (July expectation: 169 million tons), and the global ending inventory is 124.9 million tons (July expectation: 126.07 million tons) [8]. Domestic Situation - As of the time of writing, China has not purchased US soybeans. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories have reached a phased peak and will decline later, laying the foundation for a tightening supply. Coupled with the anti - dumping of Canadian canola, the domestic overall oilseed supply will tighten in the fourth quarter [5].