Core Viewpoint - 博瑞生物 is attempting to re-enter the capital market through a Hong Kong IPO amidst declining performance and regulatory scrutiny, aiming to enhance its international strategy and financing capabilities [5][26]. Cash Flow - 博瑞医药 has experienced a significant decline in net profit and revenue, with a sharp drop in gross margin and high short-term liabilities, leading to tightened cash flow and multiple regulatory warnings affecting its credibility [3][10]. Commercialization - The company's revenue heavily relies on raw materials, with innovative drugs not yet generating commercial returns, indicating a need for improved internal governance [4][8]. Investment Opportunities - 博瑞医药's core innovation pipeline, BGM0504, is positioned in the leading tier of global diabetes and obesity drug development, with the global GLP-1 market expected to grow significantly from $39 billion in 2024 to $140 billion by 2030, and the Chinese market projected to increase from 1 billion to 58 billion yuan during the same period [4][8]. Financial Performance - Revenue for 博瑞医药 from 2022 to 2024 is projected to grow slowly from 1.017 billion yuan to 1.283 billion yuan, while net profit is expected to decline from 240 million yuan to 189 million yuan. In the first three quarters of 2025, revenue fell by 10.5% year-on-year to 874 million yuan, and net profit plummeted by 71.63% to 50.32 million yuan [9][10]. Regulatory Issues - 博瑞医药 has faced multiple regulatory warnings due to improper management of raised funds and disclosure issues, with a history of at least four warnings in five years [14][15][25]. Financing History - Since its IPO in 2019, 博瑞医药 has completed three major financing rounds, but has struggled with fundraising due to regulatory issues and market conditions, leading to the termination of a planned A-share issuance [13][15]. Leadership and Ownership - 博瑞医药 is controlled by 袁建栋 and his mother, holding approximately 53% of the voting rights, with their combined share value nearing 10 billion yuan [19][20]. Market Sentiment - The company has a history of regulatory scrutiny and past performance issues, raising concerns about its ability to maintain investor confidence and achieve its ambitions in the international market [26].

Core Viewpoint - 博瑞医药 faces significant challenges including management issues related to 3.8 billion RMB of raised funds, declining profitability, and a substantial drop in revenue from antiviral products due to market fluctuations and increased competition in the weight-loss drug sector [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, 博瑞医药 reported revenue of 1.283 billion RMB, an increase of 8.74% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 6.57% to 189 million RMB, marking the third consecutive year of decline [4][5]. - The company's antiviral product revenue plummeted by 70% in Q1 2025, with overall revenue dropping by 26.81% to approximately 249 million RMB [6]. Regulatory Issues - 博瑞医药 received a warning letter from the Jiangsu Securities Regulatory Bureau for failing to properly manage and disclose the use of 3.8 billion RMB of temporarily idle raised funds, violating relevant regulations [2][3]. - The company had previously faced similar issues five years ago regarding misleading statements about the mass production of the antiviral drug Remdesivir [3]. Product Performance - The revenue from antiviral products decreased by 37.92% in 2024, primarily due to fluctuations in demand and pricing for Oseltamivir raw materials [5]. - In contrast, revenue from antifungal products surged by 60.28%, and immunosuppressive products saw a 45.72% increase, indicating a mixed performance across different product lines [5]. R&D Investment - 博瑞医药 has significantly increased its R&D expenditures, which reached 297 million RMB in 2024, accounting for 23.19% of total revenue [7]. - The company is heavily investing in the development of the GLP-1 weight-loss drug BGM0504, with total expected investment of 357 million RMB, reflecting a strategic focus on innovative drug development [7][9]. Market Competition - The competitive landscape for weight-loss drugs is intensifying, with other domestic companies also developing dual-target GLP-1 drugs, raising questions about 博瑞医药's ability to secure a competitive edge with BGM0504 [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2]. Core Views - The company focuses on the research and development of metabolic drugs, with new pipeline additions including oral BGM0504 and Amylin analog BGM1812. The current strategy emphasizes developing innovative drugs with global intellectual property rights in the metabolic disease field [5][17]. - The company reported a revenue of 1.283 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 8.74% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 189 million yuan, a decrease of 6.57% [5]. - The company expects revenues of 1.444 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 12.6%, and net profits of 253 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 33.7% [5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's stock price has shown a relative increase compared to the CSI 300 index, with absolute growth rates of 11.71% over 1 month, 17.10% over 2 months, and 48.00% over 3 months [4]. Financial Data - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 58.62%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year. The R&D expenses for 2024 were 297 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.65%, reflecting the company's commitment to a "R&D-driven" strategy [5][6]. Product Pipeline - The company is advancing its innovative drug development, with BGM0504 injection for type 2 diabetes and weight loss currently in phase III clinical trials in China, and the oral formulation BGM0504 is in preclinical stages [5][9][17]. - BGM1812, an Amylin analog, is also in the pipeline, targeting metabolic diseases and expected to complement GLP-1 drugs for enhanced weight loss effects [17][18]. Revenue Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 1.641 billion yuan in 2026 and 1.889 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 297 million yuan and 363 million yuan, indicating a strong growth trajectory [6].