Investment Rating - The report gives an "Overweight" rating for the company, predicting a net profit of $447 million and $566 million for 2025 and 2026 respectively, with a target price of $42.00 based on a PE valuation of 52X for 2025 [2][4]. Core Insights - The company has a strong high-end positioning and is rapidly expanding its business in Greater China, driven by local shareholders. The DTC strategy of Arc'teryx has significantly boosted profitability, and the core brands still have substantial potential for store expansion and improvement in store efficiency, leading to a continuous increase in profitability [1][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from $3.549 billion in 2022 to $8.228 billion by 2027, with a CAGR of 17.4% [2]. - Gross profit is expected to rise from $1.764 billion in 2022 to $4.740 billion in 2027 [2]. - The company is forecasted to turn a net profit of $73 million in 2024, with significant growth to $447 million in 2025 and $566 million in 2026, indicating a strong recovery trajectory [2]. Business Strategy and Market Position - The company has streamlined its brand matrix post-acquisition, focusing on core brands like Arc'teryx, Salomon, and Wilson, which are positioned for high growth in the premium sports segment [6][7]. - The DTC revenue share is expected to increase significantly, enhancing gross margins, with Arc'teryx leading this growth [2][69]. - The outdoor sports segment is experiencing robust growth, particularly in China, which is projected to become the largest market for outdoor footwear and apparel by 2030 [2][3]. Brand Performance - Arc'teryx is expected to see its revenue double, with a strong focus on expanding its DTC channels and improving store efficiency [44]. - Salomon is in a growth phase, with plans to expand its store presence significantly in key markets, including China [45][68]. - Wilson is diversifying its product lines and is expected to recover from previous growth challenges, with a focus on increasing its footwear offerings [68]. Market Trends - The global outdoor footwear and apparel market is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 7.1%, with Asia-Pacific leading the growth [3][4]. - The report highlights the increasing interest in women's sports events, indicating a strong growth potential for women's athletic footwear and apparel [3].

Core Insights - The sports industry in China is experiencing a shift towards professionalization and segmentation, with local brands gaining market share at the expense of traditional giants [1][2] - Anta Group's acquisition of Amer Sports and the subsequent success of Arc'teryx in China serves as a model for other brands aiming to replicate this success [1][3] - The high-end sports goods market in China is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate of 18%-20% from 2025 to 2027, reaching over 200 billion yuan [3] Company Developments - HOKA has opened its first global brand experience center in Shanghai, featuring a comprehensive running research facility aimed at community engagement [4][6] - Norrøna, known as the "ancestor of Arc'teryx," has been introduced to the Chinese market, reflecting a broader trend of consumer demand for specialized and unique sports products [3][5] - Anta continues to expand its flagship stores, emphasizing the importance of enhancing store operational efficiency and creating a balanced omnichannel network [5][6] Market Trends - The Chinese consumer market is evolving, with a growing middle class seeking quality and specialized products rather than just brand logos [8][9] - The rise of niche and professional brands is attributed to the increasing demand for quality lifestyles among consumers, which is reshaping the outdoor, sports, and high-end apparel sectors [9][10] - Brands are focusing on community engagement and experiential retail, moving away from traditional sales models to create lifestyle-oriented shopping experiences [7][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that Amer Sports achieved an 18% year-on-year revenue growth in 2024, reaching $5.183 billion, and turned around its adjusted net profit to $236 million from a loss of $103 million in 2023 [2][6] - The growth was primarily driven by the Arc'teryx brand, direct-to-consumer (DTC) channels, and strong performance in the Greater China region [2][3] - The management has provided guidance for 2025, expecting a revenue growth of 15.5-17.5% at constant exchange rates, with an operating profit margin increase of 50-100 basis points [2][29] Summary by Sections Performance and Guidance - In 2024, Amer Sports' revenue exceeded Bloomberg consensus expectations and the company's previous guidance, with a notable performance from the Arc'teryx brand and DTC channels [2][3] - The adjusted EBITDA for 2024 grew by 32% to $808 million, with a margin increase of 1.6 percentage points to 15.6% [6][9] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue increase of 23% year-on-year, reaching $1.636 billion, with an adjusted net profit of $90 million compared to a loss of $31 million in Q4 2023 [2][6] Revenue Structure - The Technical Apparel segment saw a revenue increase of 36% to $2.194 billion, driven by strong growth in footwear and women's products [14] - The Outdoor Performance segment achieved a 10% revenue growth to $1.836 billion, with significant contributions from the Salomon brand [14][15] - The Ball & Racquet segment's revenue grew by 4% to $1.154 billion, with Wilson's footwear sales doubling [15] Regional Performance - The Greater China region experienced a remarkable revenue growth of 53.7% in 2024, reaching $1.298 billion, while North America grew by 6.5% to $1.859 billion [14][15] - Other Asia-Pacific regions also showed strong growth, with a 45.5% increase in revenue [14][15] Channel Performance - The DTC channel reported a 43% year-on-year revenue growth, accounting for 44% of total revenue, while wholesale channels grew by 4% [6][14] - The DTC channel's growth was particularly strong in the fourth quarter, with a 46% increase [6][16] Management Guidance for 2025 - For 2025, the company expects revenue growth of 13-15% (constant currency 15.5-17.5%), with an adjusted gross margin of 56.5-57.0% and an operating profit margin of 11.5-12.0% [29][30] - The Technical Apparel segment is projected to grow by approximately 20%, while the Outdoor Performance segment is expected to see low double-digit growth [29]