证 券 研 究 报 告 国货护肤林清轩港股 IPO，看好新消费 景气度延续 ——新消费行业周报（20251229-20260102） [Table_Summary] 主要观点 一、行情回顾：本周（2025.12.29-2026.1.2），A 股 SW 商贸零售行 业指数下跌 1.63%，而沪深 300 下跌 0.59%，上证指数上涨 0.13%。 商贸零售在申万 31 个一级行业中涨幅排名第 26 位。 [行Ta业bl:e_Indu商st贸ry]零售 二、核心逻辑： [T分ab析le师_A:utho杜r]洋 美妆个护：我们认为美护行业正从"渗透率扩张"转向"品质升级"， 美妆赛道已从"流量红利"步入"品牌红利"时代，建议关注"悦己 刚需+国货替代+技术优势+渠道迭代"四条主线。 [T相ab关le报_R告e：portInfo] 《双十一国货领跑，关注理性消费和即时 零售》 《10 月 CPI 同比转正，关注提振消费方 向》 《波司登推出 AREAL 高端线，关注冬装 销售》 行业周报 林清轩上市：定位国货高端护肤，深耕山茶花原料以油养肤。林清轩 于 2025 年 12 月 30 日正式登陆港交所，林清轩招股价 ...

责任编辑：江钰涵 新浪科技讯 1月4日上午消息，今日，天猫年货节现货开卖。据介绍，今年天猫年货节优惠更简单，官 方立减商品8.8折起，叠加消费券7.7折起。其中，美妆、服饰、3C数码、运动户外等行业至高可领3421 元品类券，消费者搜"领券中心"即可立刻领取。第一波88VIP消费券分为三档，满200减25，满480减 60，满2000减200，满足囤年货的不同需求。 新一轮的国家补贴正式开启，叠加天猫年货节优惠，空调、电视、洗衣机、冰箱、热水器等"硬核"年货 低至5折。国补品类继续扩充，AI眼镜首次纳入国补。作为新品类，AI眼镜去年在天猫迎来爆发式增 长，截止目前，2025年成交同比增长超15倍。 责任编辑：江钰涵 新浪科技讯 1月4日上午消息，今日，天猫年货节现货开卖。据介绍，今年天猫年货节优惠更简单，官 方立减商品8.8折起，叠加消费券7.7折起。其中，美妆、服饰、3C数码、运动户外等行业至高可领3421 元品类券，消费者搜"领券中心"即可立刻领取。第一波88VIP消费券分为三档，满200减25，满480减 60，满2000减200，满足囤年货的不同需求。 新一轮的国家补贴正式开启，叠加天猫年货节优惠，空 ...

李宁 20251231 摘要 Q&A 李宁公司财务状况良好，EBITDA 保持稳定，净现比高，账面净现金超 190 亿元，占市值比例高。公司增加分红，显示其财务实力和对股东的 回报意愿。这些财务数据为公司未来发展提供了坚实基础。 李宁跑步品类逆势而上，成为第一大品类，占比 34%。运动生活品类占 比 29%，篮球品类占比下降。公司需调整运动生活品类定位，并推动篮 球品类复苏，以实现整体增长。品类结构变化影响公司未来增长战略。 李宁提高营销费用率至 10%以上，通过赞助中国奥委会和马拉松赛事， 并发布新科技"超泵胶囊"增强品牌形象。在上海马拉松中，李宁跑鞋 在破 3 小时跑者中的上脚率超过耐克，表明营销策略有效。营销投入增 加旨在提升品牌竞争力和市场份额。 从品牌市占度来看，运动户外行业有哪些变化？ 从品牌市占度来看，运动户外行业呈现出头部集中度分散化的趋势。前两大品 牌（CR2）的市场集中度从 2019 年的 38%下降到 2025 年的 24%，前十大 品牌（CR10）的市场集中度从 76%降至 68%。这表明细分品牌的增长速度显 著高于综合性头部品牌。此外，从 2019 年至 2021 年间国际综合品牌份 ...

从行业表现看，各行业消费品牌指数存在明显差异。更高的行业评分，意味着该行业的无品牌产品与低 评分品牌较少，且销售额更多集中于头部品牌；较低的行业评分，则意味着该行业仍有较大的品牌竞争 空间。与此前分布一致，CBI指数位居前列的行业为3C数码、家用电器、美妆、运动户外等。这表明， 在这些领域中，消费者对产品品质、功能及品牌认知的要求更高，品牌效应更为明显。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京12月25日电（记者丁雅雯）2025年第三季度"中国线上消费品牌指数"（CBI）25日正式发 布。本期指数为62.65，较去年同期增长0.92%，增速自2023年起保持增长态势，显示消费者在线上购物 时，对品质、品牌的重视程度持续增强。 纪洋表示，尽管市场上出现"白牌崛起"的讨论，但CBI整体走势表明，品牌消费仍处于扩张阶段。"许多 品牌方面临战略方向的困惑，在'低价获客'与'价值创新'之间难以抉择。从消费需求和趋势上看，企业 仍应致力于提升品牌价值，避免陷入低价竞争或通过削减产品功能降低成本的发展模式。" 据悉，中国线上消费品牌指数（CBI）由北京大学国家发展研究院、北京大学数字金融研究中心、中山 大学商学院合作开发。指 ...

12月25日，由北京大学国家发展研究院牵头编制的最新季度"中国线上消费品牌指数"(CBI)、 "全球品牌 中国线上500强榜单"(CBI500)和 "线上品牌购买力指数"(BPI)发布。 本次研究基于2025年7月至9月淘宝天猫平台的真实消费大数据展开，结果显示，全国线上消费品牌指数 (CBI)为62.65，同比增长0.92%，意味着线上消费者对于品牌商品的偏好继续上升。具体品牌评分排名 方面，凭借在成交额、搜索、好评等维度的优异表现，大疆、泡泡玛特等国产原创品牌增长迅速，大疆 首次跻身"全球品牌中国线上500强榜单"前10，泡泡玛特名列第12位。 | 全球品牌中国线上500强 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年第三季度(前50名) | | | | | | | | | | | 北京大学国家发展研究院编制 淘天集团技术支持 | | | | | | | | | | | ▼ 综合评分由12项指标得分加权平均得出详见《中国消费品牌指数第三期（2025年3季度）》 | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a recovery phase for Nike, with a stable revenue growth of 1% year-on-year in FY26Q2, despite challenges in certain markets [1][11]. Core Insights - Nike is currently in a mid-recovery phase, focusing on strategic adjustments and product innovation. The performance in key markets will depend on the rollout of core sports products and the strategic reset in major markets [1][17]. - The North American market shows strong performance with a 9% year-on-year revenue increase, while the Greater China region faces a 16% decline as it undergoes a strategic reset [1][13]. - The report highlights a mixed performance in the beauty and personal care sector, with online skincare sales growing by 4.8% year-on-year, while makeup sales increased by 10% [2][18]. Summary by Sections Nike Performance - FY26Q2 revenue reached $124.27 billion, with a 1% year-on-year growth. Wholesale channels grew by 8%, while NIKEDirect saw a decline of 9% [1][11]. - The North American market's revenue increased by 9%, driven by strong demand in running, children's apparel, and basketball categories [1][13]. - The Greater China market's revenue decreased by 16%, impacted by reduced foot traffic and inventory issues [1][13]. Beauty and Personal Care Sector - Online skincare sales in November grew by 4.8%, with Tmall and Douyin showing contrasting performance [2][18]. - Makeup sales increased by 10%, with Tmall and Douyin also reflecting varied growth rates [2][18]. - Brands are shifting focus to Tmall as ROI on Douyin advertising declines [2][18]. Retail Trends - November clothing retail sales grew by 3.5% year-on-year, but the growth rate has slowed compared to October [3][25]. - Jewelry retail sales saw a decline of 8.5% year-on-year, while gold prices supported demand [3][25]. - The cosmetics sector experienced a 6.1% year-on-year growth, but the growth rate has decreased compared to previous months [3][32]. Investment Recommendations - For apparel brands, Hai Lan's Home is recommended for its strong profitability and expansion potential, while Li Ning is seen as having a potential turning point [4]. - In the beauty sector, companies like Juzi Biotechnology and Jinbo Biological are highlighted for their resilience and product launches [4]. - The jewelry sector remains attractive due to rising gold prices, with recommendations for brands like Laoputang [4].

Core Insights - The sports and outdoor industry is experiencing significant leadership changes among major brands, indicating a turbulent environment where growth ambitions are being reassessed [1][2][3][4][5][14][18] - Companies are grappling with the balance between maintaining high growth and focusing on core competencies, leading to strategic shifts and potential brand identity crises [6][12][14][21] Company Summaries - Under Armour's founder Kevin Plank returned to lead the company, initiating an 18-month restructuring plan as the stock price plummeted from a high of $52 to around $4, highlighting the challenges of sustaining growth [1][14] - Nike's former CEO John Donahoe stepped down, with Elliott Hill taking over amid declining gross margins and increased discount rates, indicating a need for recovery despite previous digital transformation successes [1][16] - Lululemon's CEO Calvin McDonald announced his departure, coinciding with a mixed earnings report that showed a 7% increase in net sales but a 5% decline in comparable sales in North America, raising concerns about the brand's strategic direction [3][4][5] - HOKA ONE ONE, once a strong competitor, faced a significant stock drop due to investor skepticism about its growth potential, prompting its CEO to clarify the brand's focus on specific running categories [1][18][21] - On the other hand, On Running has maintained robust growth, with revenue increases exceeding 30% in recent quarters, positioning itself closer to lifestyle branding while still emphasizing performance [18][19][21] Industry Trends - The differentiation in product technology among sports brands is diminishing, leading to a greater emphasis on brand positioning as companies navigate between being performance-oriented and lifestyle-focused [7][10][11] - The shift in consumer expectations, particularly among Gen Z, is moving from competitive sports to a more participatory and wellness-oriented approach, influencing how brands communicate and market their products [11][12] - The ongoing debate within the industry revolves around how closely brands should align with core athletic performance versus lifestyle trends, with varying strategies yielding different results [12][21]

以下文章来源于窄播 ，作者窄播 窄播 . 关于商业的认知和乐趣。 来源丨窄播 （ exact-interaction ） 作者丨 麻花 图片人物丨 即将离开lululemon的CEO Calvin McDonald 运动户外无疑是这几年最火的消费赛道之一，但想要坐稳运动品牌CEO的位置并不容易。 去年4月，安德玛创始人Kevin Plank重回公司，接替了仅掌权一年的CEO Stephanie Linnartz。他 在同年6月宣布了为期18个月的重组计划，但期限将至，公司股价相比曾经52美元的高位，已经掉到 了4美元档。 去年10月，耐克前任CEO John Donahoe宣布离职，由功勋老臣Elliott Hill接任。尽管Elliott Hill 已 经连续两个季度交出了超出预期的财报，但毛利率下降、折扣率提升的耐克显然还需要经过一段阵痛 期。 HOKA ONE ONE霍伽原本是耐克最有力的竞争对手，也是疫情后增速最快的运动品牌之一，但它母 公司德克斯户外的股价在2025年骤然腰斩，投资者质疑HOKA持续增长的能力，德克斯的CEO Stefano Caroti不得不一次次解释，公司聚焦在跑步、越野等场景能 ...

围绕2025年资本市场的IPO环境，全球上市加速器集团于2025年11月9日前邀请业界大咖，开启"2025企 业转型升级与中美港上市"31期高峰公益论坛。 业内专家指出："中国企业的盈利模式，已经从单一的产品驱动，逐渐转变为'产品+资本'的双模式驱 动，这是企业未来发展的方向及趋势。从这个角度来说，选择上市是最可靠的，从而开创它的二次辉 煌。"不可否认的是，企业进行融资后，可以广泛吸收社会当中的资金，有了这些资金的支持之后，可 以快速地提高产品的竞争力和市场的占有率，对长远发展十分重要。 主讲嘉宾1曾任国家发改委国际合作中心副主任,现任国家发改委市场与价格研究所副所长刘建兴主讲了 高质量共建"一带一路",构建互利共赢合作新格局。 一是推进共建"一带一路"绿色发展。推动绿色丝绸之路建设与联合国可持续发展议程深入对接。围绕绿 色基建、绿色生态、绿色能源、绿色交通、绿色金融等重点领域，依托和完善"一带一路"绿色发展国际 联盟等重要平台，落实好"一带一路"绿色投资原则。 二是加快培育数字领域合作新业态新模式。深化数字治理合作，加快推进加入《数字经济伙伴关系协 定》（DEPA）等协定谈判进程，加快世界贸易组织（WTO） ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand as the primary driver for economic growth in 2026, with a focus on implementing consumption-boosting initiatives and enhancing the domestic market [11][12][13] - The contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth from 2021 to 2024 is projected to be 86.4%, with final consumption accounting for an average contribution rate of 56.2% [12][13] - The report highlights the shift in the retail industry towards quality and service-driven growth, as discussed in the National Retail Innovation Development Conference [15][16] Group 2 - The North Exchange's consumer services sector saw a weekly increase of 0.44%, with food and beverage sector rising by 3.32% [25][31] - As of December 13, 2025, there are 25 companies related to the consumer services sector in the North Exchange's queue, with an average revenue of 1.242 billion yuan and an average net profit of 140.35 million yuan for 2024 [47][48] - Notable companies in the consumer services sector include Yizhi Moyu, which has a market value of 3.555 billion yuan and a net profit of 62.34 million yuan for 2025 Q1-Q3 [24][35] Group 3 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November 2025 increased by 0.7% year-on-year, primarily driven by rising food prices [36][38] - The average wholesale price of pork is reported at 17.65 yuan per kilogram, while the average price of eggs is at 7.43 yuan per kilogram, reflecting market conditions [40][41] - The report indicates that the average price of fresh milk in major producing provinces is 3.02 yuan per kilogram, remaining stable compared to the previous week [46] Group 4 - The report outlines the significant sales performance during the "Double 11" shopping festival, with home appliances, digital devices, and clothing being the top three categories by sales volume [19][21] - The "Double 12" shopping event is set to further stimulate consumer spending, with various platforms launching promotional activities [18][22] - The report identifies 20 related stocks in the North Exchange for the "Double 12" event, covering categories such as home appliances, personal care, and food and beverages [23][24]