January 6, 2026 11:02 AM GMT 上汽集团 业务协同助推复苏步伐；超配 在整个集团旗下，上汽集团 (上汽) 的整车业务覆盖范围广 泛，既包括产业链上下游，也涵盖周边业务。这样的业务布 局有助于上汽在销量回升时能够参与到更广泛的产业链价值 创造。 要点 一体化商业模式预计将在2026年发挥作用：上汽自主品牌在2025年实现了显著的 销量回升，得益于国内产品升级、新品牌推出，以及稳定的海外销售贡献。上汽 大众和上汽通用的前景保持稳健，预计将受益于即将到来的产品周期、改善的新 能源转型前景，以及更健康的销售网络。随着销量趋势改善，我们预计上汽将通 过其在产业链上游（汽车零部件）和下游（销售及汽车金融）以及对汽车相关企 业的战略和财务投资，在中国的汽车产业链中捕捉更多价值创造。上汽独特的商 业模式应有助于在转型期维持盈利能力，并增强复苏势头。 改善来自何处？除了华域和汽车金融业务（预计2026年恢复）的稳定贡献，我们 还看到以下边际改善：1）自主品牌运营改善，亏损减少；2）合资企业在2024年 亏损扩大后，盈利前景趋稳；3）业务整合相关成本在2023/2024年得到明显释 放，后续资产减值正常 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 20.8 yuan, indicating an expected upside of 27% from the current price of 16.45 yuan [1][7]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q1 2025 shows significant improvement, with a revenue of 140.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 29%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 3.02 billion yuan, up by 3.1 billion yuan year-on-year and 82.6 billion yuan quarter-on-quarter, marking a turnaround from losses [6]. - The company has undergone a comprehensive reform in its passenger vehicle segment, aiming to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs. The "Large Passenger Vehicle Segment" is expected to launch 10 new or significantly updated models in 2025, including 8 new energy vehicles [6]. - A partnership with Huawei has been established to create the "Shangjie" brand, which is anticipated to have a large market potential and optimistic sales outlook. The first model is expected to be launched in Q4 2025 [6]. - The company's current valuation is considered low, with a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 158 for 2025, and a price-to-book ratio (PB) of 0.6, indicating favorable investment value [6]. Financial Summary - The total revenue for 2024 is projected at 627.59 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15.7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 16.66 billion yuan, reflecting a substantial year-on-year growth of 88.2% [2][6]. - For 2025, revenue is estimated at 646.25 billion yuan, with a modest growth rate of 3.0%. The net profit is forecasted to soar to 12.04 billion yuan, a staggering increase of 622.8% compared to 2024 [2][6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.14 yuan in 2024 to 1.04 yuan in 2025, indicating a strong recovery in profitability [2][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 20.8 yuan, indicating an expected upside of 27% [1][6]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q1 2025 shows significant improvement, with a notable recovery in its fundamentals. The revenue for Q1 2025 was 1,409 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders was 30.2 million yuan, an increase of 3.1 million yuan year-on-year [6][7]. - The company has undergone a comprehensive reform in its passenger vehicle segment, aiming to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs. The "Large Passenger Vehicle Segment" was established to integrate various subsidiaries and improve resource allocation [6][7]. - A partnership with Huawei has been initiated to develop the "Shangjie" brand, which is expected to capture a significant market share in the economy car segment, with optimistic sales projections [6][7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to increase from 627,590 million yuan in 2024 to 780,228 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8.2% [2][7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 1,666 million yuan in 2024 to 16,875 million yuan in 2027, with a significant growth rate of 622.8% in 2025 [2][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to grow from 0.14 yuan in 2024 to 1.46 yuan in 2027, indicating a strong recovery in profitability [2][7]. Market Position and Strategy - The company plans to launch 10 new and significantly updated models in 2025, including 8 new energy vehicles, to strengthen its market position [6][7]. - The collaboration with Volkswagen has been extended until 2040, with plans to introduce new electric and hybrid models tailored for the Chinese market starting in 2026 [6][7]. - The current valuation metrics indicate a low price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.8 for 2025, suggesting that the company is undervalued relative to its growth potential [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, but showed signs of recovery in Q1 2025, driven by reforms and new product launches [1][2]. Financial Performance - 2024 revenue was 627.59 billion yuan, down 15.73% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.666 billion yuan, down 88.19% year-on-year [1]. - Q4 2024 revenue was 197.11 billion yuan, down 10.96% year-on-year but up 35.19% quarter-on-quarter; net profit was -5.241 billion yuan, down 294.19% year-on-year [1]. - Q1 2025 revenue was 140.86 billion yuan, up 1.55% year-on-year but down 28.54% quarter-on-quarter; net profit was 3.023 billion yuan, up 11.40% year-on-year and up 157.68% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Sales and Market Dynamics - In 2024, the company sold 4.013 million vehicles, a decrease of 20.1% year-on-year, primarily due to intensified industry competition and proactive inventory reduction [1]. - Retail sales in 2024 were 4.639 million vehicles, with over 600,000 units reduced from inventory; new energy vehicle retail sales reached 1.368 million units, up 30% year-on-year [1]. - In Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, wholesale sales were 1.364 million and 945,000 vehicles, respectively, with a year-on-year decline of 17.0% and an increase of 13.3% [1]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is undergoing significant reforms, including the establishment of a new passenger vehicle segment to enhance efficiency and competitiveness [2]. - A partnership with Huawei for the "Shangjie" brand's first model is set to enter the promotional phase in 2025 [2]. - The company aims to achieve over 4.5 million vehicle sales and over 674 billion yuan in total revenue in 2025 [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted upwards, with expected revenues of 717 billion, 778.1 billion, and 826.6 billion yuan, respectively [3]. - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is 12.3 billion, 15.1 billion, and 16.77 billion yuan, respectively [3]. - The target price is set at 23.05 yuan, reflecting a valuation premium due to ongoing reforms [3].