山东栖霞80#一二级晚富士

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农产品日报:苹果部分产区遭冻害,持续关注天气情况-20250422
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-04-22 03:17
Group 1: Apple 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for apples is to be bullish in a volatile market [5] 2. Core View - The current apple market is in the traditional sales peak season, with improved terminal consumption of late - Fuji apples. The inventory is at a five - year low, and the de - stocking pressure is small, so it is expected that this week's transactions will remain smooth and prices will be firm with a slight upward trend. However, since apples are non - essential goods, a sharp price increase in the sales area will suppress demand and slow down the price increase. New - season apples are in the flowering period, and some产区 have suffered frost damage, with a certain expected reduction in production. Weather factors still have a great impact on the production forecast, and short - term prices of futures and spot are expected to be positive [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2510 contract yesterday was 7,922 yuan/ton, a change of +248 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of +3.23%. Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late - Fuji apples in Shandong Qixia was 4.05 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of 70 and above semi - commercial late - Fuji apples in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.30 yuan/jin, also unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis of Shandong Qixia was AP10 + 178, a change of - 248 from the previous day; the spot basis of Shaanxi Luochuan was AP10 + 678, also a change of - 248 from the previous day [2] Market Analysis - In the production areas, the in - warehouse transactions are active, the overall shipment is smooth, and the prices are generally stable. In the western production areas, the transactions of merchants' goods are smooth, and the prices are slightly firm. In the Shandong production area, the number of merchants looking for goods has increased, and the transactions are mainly low - priced goods. In the sales areas, the number of incoming trucks is normal, and the overall shipment is okay. The current inventory is at a five - year low, with little de - stocking pressure. New - season apples are in the flowering period, and some areas in Gansu and northern Shaanxi have suffered frost damage, with a certain expected reduction in production. The futures and spot prices are expected to be positive in the short term. This week, attention should be paid to factors such as the continuity of merchants' replenishment, the shipment in the sales area, farmers' selling mentality, new - season flower quantity, and weather changes [3][4] Group 2: Red Dates 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for red dates is neutral [8] 2. Core View - The red date market is currently in a state where the supply of goods in the sales area is sufficient, and merchants purchase on demand. With the increase in temperature, the demand for warehousing has increased significantly, and the cold - storage capacity is tight. The 2024 red date harvest exceeded expectations, and the market has no significant differences in the fundamentals of red dates. Currently, both futures and spot prices are at historical lows, and the consumption off - season will last until September. The cost of red date warehouse receipts provides some support, and the downside space is limited. The market will focus on the growth of new - season red dates, and short - term prices are expected to be volatile [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2509 contract yesterday was 9,440 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of - 0.11%. Spot: The price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei was 8.30 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis was CJ09 - 1140, a change of +10 from the previous day [5][6] Market Analysis - In the Xinjiang main production area of grey jujubes, the jujube trees have sporadically entered the budding stage, and jujube farmers are actively managing the fields. In the Hebei Cuierzhuang market, there are more than a dozen trucks of incoming goods, and the market supply is sufficient. In the Guangdong Ruyifang market, there are 2 trucks of incoming goods, and the mainstream prices are stable. The red date futures closed slightly lower yesterday. In the short term, prices are expected to remain stable. The market will focus on the impact of weather changes on the growth of new - season red dates [6][7]