Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of Apple Futures Contract 2510 increased by 1.37%. According to preliminary estimates, the national apple production in the new season will be 37.3664 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.35%. As of August 13, 2025, the cold storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 460,100 tons, with a slightly slower shipping speed. The old - crop inventory is low, and the sales pressure is not large, but the overall shipping speed has slowed down. With the increase in the listing volume of Gala apples, it may restrain the price increase. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading on Apple Futures Contract 2510 and pay attention to the coloring and listing of early - maturing apples [6][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of Apple Futures Contract 2510 rose 1.37% this week [6][11]. - **Market Outlook**: The estimated national apple production in the new season is 37.3664 million tons, an increase of 859,300 tons (2.35%) compared to the 2024 - 2025 season. As of August 13, 2025, the cold - storage inventory was 460,100 tons, a decrease of 75,800 tons from last week. The shipping speed slowed slightly. The old - crop inventory is low, and the sales pressure is small, but the overall shipping speed has slowed. The supply of bagged Gala apples in the western region is increasing, but the purchasing enthusiasm of buyers is average. Low inventory supports prices, but the increasing supply of Gala apples may restrict price increases [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to conduct short - term trading on Apple Futures Contract 2510 [7]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Monitor the destocking rate, consumption, and new - crop production [8]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: The price of Apple Futures Contract 2510 increased by 1.37% this week. As of this week, the net short position of the top 20 futures holders was 3,167 lots, and the number of futures warrants was 0 [11][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 15, 2025, the mainstream price of 80 first - and second - grade farmer - sourced bagged Red Fuji apples in Qixia, Shandong was 4 yuan per jin; the price of bagged 75 and above Fuji apples in Yiyuan, Shandong was 2.3 yuan per jin [19]. 3. Industry Conditions and Options - **Supply Side**: As of August 13, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 460,100 tons, a decrease of 75,800 tons from last week. The storage capacity ratios in Shandong, Shaanxi, and Gansu decreased by 1.06%, 0.47%, and 0.48% respectively compared to last week [26]. - **Demand Side**: - As of August 14, the average daily number of trucks arriving at major apple wholesale markets in Guangdong decreased. The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants was 0.4 yuan per jin [30]. - As of August 8, 2025, the average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.51 yuan per kilogram, a 1.65% decrease from the previous period; the average wholesale price of all apples was 9.69 yuan per kilogram, a 0.62% decrease [35]. - As of August 8, 2025, the weekly average wholesale price of five types of fruits (including Fuji apples, bananas, tangerines, pears, and watermelons) was 7.01 yuan per kilogram, a 1.27% decrease from the previous period [39]. - In June 2023, China's fresh apple exports were 40,000 tons, a 20% decrease from the previous month and a 38.6% decrease from the same period last year [42]. - **Substitute Products**: As of August 8, 2025, the weekly average wholesale price of five types of fruits (including Fuji apples, bananas, tangerines, pears, and watermelons) was 7.01 yuan per kilogram, a 1.27% decrease from the previous period [39]. - **Options Market**: The document only mentions the implied volatility chart of at - the - money apple options this week, without specific data [43]. 4. Futures - Stock Correlation - The document only provides a chart of the price - earnings ratio of Honghui Fruit, without specific data [47].

新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至5月22日收盘主力合约苹果2510,涨跌-1.83%,成交量9.59万手，持仓数据显示前20席位呈现净空， 差额头寸为7384手。 2025年5月22日苹果主力合约2510持仓数据一览 | | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 增减 | 会员 | 持买单 | 增减 | 会员 | 持卖单 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 国泰君安 | 14,058 | -6,367 | 东证期货 | 7,554 | -1,743 | 国泰君安 | 13,098 | -1,240 | | 2 | 中信期货 | 13,425 | -10,621 | 中信期货 | 5,767 | -2,263 | 东证期货 | 7,493 | -658 | | 3 | 东证期货 | 11,143 | -12,299 | 国泰君安 | 5,668 | -1,812 | 中信期货 | 6,300 | -1,522 | | ব | 海通期货 | 7,204 | -6,238 | 中泰期货 | 5,487 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The USDA May supply - demand report had mixed impacts on agricultural products. The prices of some products like cotton rose, while others such as palm oil, sugar, and bean粕 declined. The overall agricultural product market showed a diversified trend with different influencing factors for each variety [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Cotton - The cotton main 2509 contract continued to rise despite a pull - back. The Sino - US high - level economic and trade talks' positive outcome, domestic macro - benefits, and reduced commercial inventory supported the price increase. However, the textile industry is in a off - season [2]. - Technically, it showed strength. The strategy is to go long on dips with a support level of 13270 and a resistance level of 13475 [3]. Palm Oil - The palm oil main 2509 contract reversed and fell. The MPOB April report showed a significant increase in Malaysian palm oil production and inventory, while exports met expectations. The large increase in production and inventory pressured the price [4]. - The contract entered a downward trend. The strategy is to short on rallies with a support level of 7812 and a resistance level of 8000 [4]. Sugar - The sugar main 2509 contract rebounded but then fell sharply. Overseas raw sugar price drops and the opening of the domestic sugar out - of - quota import profit window limited its rebound [6]. - Technically, it weakened. The strategy is short - term trading with a support level of 5827 and a resistance level of 5892 [6]. Bean粕 - The bean粕 main 2509 contract continued to decline. Although the USDA report was bullish for US soybeans, fast sowing in the US and large domestic soybean imports increased supply, weakening downstream demand [9]. - Technically, it was weak. The strategy is to short on rallies with a support level of 2865 and a resistance level of 2900 [9]. Bean一 - The bean一 main 2507 contract oscillated and fell. Stable domestic soybean prices due to less remaining beans at the grass - roots level were offset by weak downstream demand and increased imported soybean supply [10]. - Technically, it was weak. The strategy is to hold short positions with a support level of 4130 and a resistance level of 4175 [12]. Soybean Oil - The soybean oil main 2509 contract rose first and then fell. The USDA report increased US soybean oil demand in biofuels, but large domestic soybean imports and increased supply pressured the price [13]. - Technically, it weakened. The strategy is short - term shorting with a support level of 7770 and a resistance level of 7866 [13]. Corn - The corn main 2507 contract continued to fall. The Sino - US tariff reduction may increase imports, and rumors of state corn reserve auctions added bearish sentiment. Substitute pressure and weak downstream demand also contributed to the decline [15]. - Technically, it weakened. The strategy is short - term trading with a support level of 2335 and a resistance level of 2361 [15]. Pig - The pig 2509 contract oscillated at a low level. High inventory on the breeding side and weak demand after the May Day holiday led to an oversupply situation [17]. - Technically, it was weak. The strategy is to hold light short positions with a support level of 13800 and a resistance level of 13915 [17]. Egg - The egg main 2506 contract oscillated and fell. High egg - laying hen inventory and sufficient egg supply limited the price rebound [19]. - Technically, it faced downward pressure. The strategy is to hold light short positions with a support level of 2900 and a resistance level of 2933 [19]. Apple - The apple main 2510 contract gapped down. High apple prices in production areas and increased substitute consumption from competing fruits pressured the price [22]. - Technically, it was weak. The strategy is to hold light short positions with a support level of 7690 and a resistance level of 7800 [22].

Overall Summary of the Agricultural Products Sector - Cotton breaks through and rises, but weak downstream demand may limit the rebound space. Soybean meal drops significantly, and the supply is expected to increase. Palm oil continues to be weak with an expected increase in supply. Corn runs at a high level supported by multiple factors [1]. Variety Strategy Tracking Cotton - The main 2509 contract of cotton shows a third consecutive positive trend, breaking through and strengthening technically. Factors such as the upcoming Sino - US high - level meeting on tariffs, domestic macro - favorable policies, low imported cotton volume, and decreased port inventory support the rebound. However, weak downstream demand after the consumption peak season may resist the rebound. The strategy is to hold a light long position, with support at 12875 and resistance at 13000 [1][2]. Soybean Meal - The main 2509 contract of soybean meal first rises then falls sharply, continuing the downward trend. The increasing national oil mill压榨量 strengthens the expectation of loose supply, pressuring the futures price. The strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 2880 and resistance at 2914 [3]. Palm Oil - The main 2509 contract of palm oil first rises then falls, with a continuous decline. The expected increase in production and inventory in Malaysia and the increase in China's procurement volume suppress the price. The technical situation remains weak. The strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 7812 and resistance at 7944 [5]. Sugar - The main 2509 contract of sugar rebounds, boosted by short - covering. The strong production and sales data in the domestic sugar market provide upward momentum. However, the technical weakness has not been reversed. The strategy is to hold short positions and observe whether it can break through the 5 - day moving average resistance, with support at 5808 and resistance at 5859 [8]. Soybean No.1 - The main 2507 contract of soybean No.1 continues to decline. The stable price of inland soybeans, light market trading, increasing imported soybean supply, and weak downstream demand suppress the price. The strategy is to lightly short - sell, with support at 4138 and resistance at 4188 [9][11]. Soybean Oil - The main 2509 contract of soybean oil rises then falls, with a volatile market. The improvement of soybean supply and the increase in oil mill operating rate will lead to an increase in supply and inventory, limiting the upward space. The strategy is short - term trading, with support at 7752 and resistance at 7806 [12]. Corn - The main 2507 contract of corn oscillates and closes positively, running at a high level. Factors such as the exhaustion of grassroots surplus grain, strong willingness of traders to hold and support prices, the linkage between wheat and corn prices, and the intention of downstream enterprises to replenish inventory support the price. The strategy is to hold a light long position, with support at 2370 and resistance at 2387 [14]. Live Pigs - The 2509 contract of live pigs first declines then rises, with a volatile trend and a downward trend remaining. High inventory in the breeding end, increased planned slaughter volume in May, and weak demand after the May Day holiday suppress the price. The strategy is to lightly short - sell at high prices, with support at 13820 and resistance at 14000 [17]. Eggs - The main 2506 contract of eggs first rises then falls, with a continuous downward trend. High egg - laying hen inventory, slow elimination of old hens, and weak demand after the May Day holiday lead to sufficient supply and slow inventory digestion. The strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 2875 and resistance at 2900 [20]. Apples - The main 2510 contract of apples rebounds slightly but remains weak. The slowdown in post - holiday sales, high - level long - liquidation on the futures market, and technical weakness continue. The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - loss set, with support at 7765 and resistance at 7864 [21][23].

期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2510合约7922元/吨，较前一日变动+248元/吨，幅度+3.23%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格4.05元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+178，较前一日变动-248；陕西洛川70# 以上 半商品晚富士价格4.30元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+678，较前一日变动-248。 近期市场资讯，苹果产区库内交易活跃，整体走货顺畅，各渠道备货积极性较高，价格整体以稳为主。西部产区 客商货源交易顺畅，价格略偏硬运行，部分客商包装自存货源发市场；山东产区找货客商数量增加，成交多以低 价货源为主，小单车及电商要货增加，整体出货积极，果农抗价普遍。销区市场市场到车量处于正常水平，市场 走货尚可，低价货源消化顺畅，高价成交一般，二三级批发商维持按需拿货，中转库积压不多。陕西洛川产区目 前库内果农统货70#起步主流价格3.8-4.0元/斤左右，客商前期货源4.2-4.5元/斤，70#高次2.8-3.2元/斤左右，以质论 价。 山东栖霞产区果农三级1.8-2.0元/斤，果农80#以上统货2.4-3.0元/斤，80#一二级片红3.5-4元/斤 ...