Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - The crude oil market is volatile. Brent's October contract fell 0.77%. There is pressure of accelerated inventory build - up after the third - quarter peak season, and the price center may decline in the medium term. Hold a long strangle strategy for out - of - the - money options in the short term and consider short positions later [2] Precious Metals - Overnight, precious metals were weak. With the clarification of US tariffs and progress in Russia - Ukraine talks, the market's risk - aversion sentiment has cooled, and precious metals are in an oscillatory adjustment phase. Wait patiently for pull - back entry points [3] Copper - Overnight, copper prices broke below the MA60 moving average. Trump included hundreds of end - products with high steel and aluminum content in the 50% tariff list. The copper market is still carefully assessing economic growth risks. Hold short positions above 79,000 for the main Shanghai copper contract [4] Aluminum and Related Products - Shanghai aluminum slightly declined. Aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 19,000 tons, and aluminum rod inventory decreased by 6,000 tons. It may be approaching the peak of off - season inventory build - up. Shanghai aluminum will mainly oscillate in the short term, with support around 20,300 yuan. Alumina has an oversupply situation, and its price is in a weak oscillation [5] - Cast aluminum alloy follows the movement of Shanghai aluminum. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the alloy industry's profit is poor. There is a possibility that the cross - variety spread between the spot and AL will gradually narrow [6] Zinc - In the first half of 2025, the output of major overseas zinc mines increased by over 12% year - on - year. The demand is in the off - season. Due to vehicle transportation restrictions in Tianjin, some galvanized small factories have stopped production. The supply - increase and demand - weak fundamentals dominate, and Shanghai zinc has fallen for five consecutive trading days. Be vigilant against macro - sentiment fluctuations as the "Golden September and Silver October" approach [7] Lead - The consumption of lead fails to show the peak - season characteristics, dragging the price into a weak oscillation. The raw - material supply is tight, providing strong cost support. In late August, pay attention to traffic control in lead - ingot production areas and regular maintenance of primary lead plants. There is an expectation of demand recovery after the beginning of autumn and approaching the new semester [8] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel slightly corrected. The social inventory of stainless steel has decreased for six consecutive times. However, the downstream's acceptance of high - priced stainless - steel products is still poor, and the supply is expected to increase. Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of the rebound, and it is advisable to enter short positions [9] Tin - Overnight, LME tin was the only base metal to close up. Indonesia's refined tin exports in July decreased by 15% month - on - month. With low overseas inventories and spot premiums, tin prices are supported. Hold short - term long positions based on the MA60 moving average [10] Carbonate Lithium - The carbonate lithium futures price is oscillating. The spot market has seen continuous sharp increases. The total market inventory is basically flat, with a decrease in smelter inventory and an increase in trader inventory. Adopt a short - term long strategy and manage risks well [11] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures oscillated and closed down. The policy details related to photovoltaics have not been updated, and the market sentiment has cooled. The terminal and downstream demand is stable, but the high - inventory pattern suppresses the spot price increase. There are opportunities to go long below 50,000 yuan/ton, but there is resistance above 53,000 yuan/ton [12] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures oscillated downward. The policy details related to photovoltaics have not been updated, and the market sentiment has declined. During the wet season, industrial silicon has a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with limited improvement in fundamentals. The main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 8,500 - 9,000 yuan/ton [13] Iron and Steel - Night - session steel prices continued to decline. The demand in the off - season is weak. The apparent demand for rebar continued to decline, and the inventory build - up accelerated. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils improved slightly, and the inventory build - up slowed down. Pay attention to the production - restriction intensity in Tangshan and other places as the military parade approaches [14] Iron Ore - Overnight, the iron - ore futures price weakened. The global iron - ore shipment is seasonally increasing, and the domestic arrival volume has increased. The port inventory is rising. The short - term demand is supported by high hot - metal production, but there is an expectation of hot - metal production reduction as the military parade approaches. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level [15] Coke and Coking Coal - Coke prices oscillated during the day. There is an expectation of production restriction for coking plants in East China due to approaching major events. The seventh round of coke price increase has improved coking profits, and the daily coking production has slightly increased. The overall coke inventory is decreasing [16] - Coking - coal prices oscillated during the day. The production of coking - coal mines has decreased, and the spot auction market is active. The overall coking - coal inventory is decreasing, and the production - end inventory decline has narrowed [16] Silicon Manganese and Silicon Ferrosilicon - Silicon manganese prices declined during the day. Pay attention to the shipment of South32's Australian mines. The demand from the hot - metal production is high. The weekly production of silicon manganese has increased, and the inventory has not yet accumulated. The price is affected by the "anti - involution" policy and follows coking - coal prices [17] - Silicon ferrosilicon prices declined during the day. The hot - metal production has slightly decreased. The export demand is stable, and the demand from the magnesium - metal industry has slightly declined. The supply of silicon ferrosilicon has increased significantly, and the market's spot and futures demand is good. The price follows silicon - manganese prices and is affected by the "anti - involution" policy [18] Shipping Index (European Line) - The current 10 - contract price of 1350 points corresponds to a spot price of about $1900/FEU. The spot price is on a downward trend, and the cargo volume is seasonally decreasing. The market is expected to remain bearish [19] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak among oil futures, while low - sulfur fuel oil is strong. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil from the Middle East to Asia is increasing, and the high - and low - sulfur spread has widened [20] Asphalt - After the US resumes importing Venezuelan oil, it is expected to have a diversion effect on North Asian resources. Sinopec's asphalt production has been decreasing year - on - year due to increased deep - processing load. With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October" construction season, the road demand is expected to recover. The BU price is expected to oscillate weakly and is likely to fluctuate narrowly between 3400 - 3500 yuan/ton for the October contract [21] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The overseas LPG market has stabilized recently. The domestic import and refinery supply have increased, and the domestic - produced gas is under pressure. Pay attention to the sustainability of the current high - operating rate as the propane cost advantage is weakening [22] Urea - The news of urea export - policy adjustment has disturbed the market. The fundamental situation has changed little. The agricultural demand is weak, and the production enterprises' inventory is under general pressure. The market is affected by market sentiment and export news [23] Methanol - Methanol inventories at ports are rapidly accumulating. The import volume remains high, and the MTO device operating rate in East China is low. The short - term market trend is weak. Pay attention to macro and market - sentiment changes [24] Pure Benzene - The price of pure benzene declined overnight. The domestic production has slightly decreased, and the import is expected to shrink. The port inventory is decreasing, and the fundamentals are improving. Consider inter - month spread trading in the third - quarter and fourth - quarter [25] Styrene - The styrene futures main - contract moving - average system is converging, and the price is in a consolidation pattern. The cost provides bottom support, but the single - side driving force is insufficient. The domestic styrene supply is expected to increase, while the downstream demand has an incremental expectation [26] Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - There are both start - up and shutdown plans for propylene plants. The demand from downstream products is general, and the downstream factories purchase propylene on a need - to - buy and low - price basis. The supply of polyethylene has slightly decreased, and the demand for agricultural films is increasing. The supply of polypropylene is expected to increase, and the short - term downstream demand is weak [27] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC is in a weak operation. India's anti - dumping tax on PVC imports has increased the export competition pressure. The supply is high, and the demand is insufficient. The social inventory has been accumulating since July. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [28] - Caustic soda prices have declined from a high level. The non - aluminum downstream demand in Shandong is good, and the inventory has decreased. The overall supply has slightly decreased due to plant maintenance. The short - term price is supported by restocking demand, but the long - term supply pressure remains [28] PX and PTA - The prices of PX and PTA declined overnight as the oil price weakened. The terminal weaving and dyeing operating rate has increased, and the polyester and PTA loads are relatively stable. The PTA near - month processing margin has declined. The PX supply - demand situation is expected to improve, and the valuation is expected to increase [29] Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene glycol price declined slightly due to the decline of peripheral chemical products. The import arrival volume has increased slightly, and the port inventory is accumulating. The terminal demand shows signs of improvement. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [30] Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip - The short - fiber supply - demand situation is stable, and the processing margin has slightly recovered. There is limited new capacity this year, and the peak - season demand is expected to boost the market. Consider a long - position configuration on dips and a positive inter - month spread strategy [31] - The bottle - chip processing margin is oscillating at a low level. The long - term over - capacity problem restricts the processing - margin recovery space [31] Glass - The glass price declined sharply overnight. The spot market is weak, and the price is falling. The inventory is expected to continue to accumulate this week. The deep - processing operating rate in Shahe is affected by the approaching military parade. The demand is weak, but the cost increase may prevent the price from breaking the previous low [32] Rubber - The international crude - oil price declined, and the Thai raw - material prices mostly increased. The global natural - rubber supply is entering the high - production season. The operating rates of domestic butadiene - rubber plants have declined, while the upstream butadiene plants' operating rates have increased. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao has decreased [33] Soda Ash - The soda - ash futures price declined sharply. The supply is expected to increase as Yuanxing has future production plans. The industry inventory is high at all levels. The photovoltaic market's fundamentals have improved, and the demand for heavy - soda ash has slightly increased. The long - term supply - demand situation is in surplus, and the price is under pressure at a high level [34] Agricultural Products Soybeans and Soybean Meal - As of August 17, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%. The future two - week weather in the US soybean - growing areas may pose challenges to new - season crops. China's anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed has boosted the bean - meal price. The soybean arrival volume from August to October is expected to be around 10 million tons. The domestic bean - meal market is cautiously bullish [35] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Overnight, the prices of US soybeans, US soybean oil, and Malaysian palm oil declined. The domestic soybean and palm - oil prices also decreased with reduced positions. The FOB bean - palm spread has turned negative. The long - term development trend of US and Indonesian biodiesel still exists, so maintain a long - position strategy on dips, but be cautious about short - term price fluctuations [36] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The overseas rapeseed futures prices declined overnight, dragging down the domestic rapeseed - related products. The China - Australia rapeseed trade is a hot topic. It is expected that Australian rapeseed will arrive in China at the end of the year. The short - term rapeseed - related futures prices are expected to have a weak rebound [37] Soybean No. 1 - Overnight, the price of domestic soybeans declined. The supply has increased marginally through the auction. The demand is weak. The weather is favorable for soybean growth this week. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans is narrowing. Pay attention to the weather, policies, and the performance of imported soybeans [38] Corn - As of August 19, the成交 rate of Cofco's imported - corn auctions was low. The US corn good - to - excellent rate was 71% as of August 17. The domestic corn market has not seen a policy - driven structural change in supply and demand. The Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [39] Livestock and Poultry Pigs - The short - term spot price of pigs has strengthened slightly, driving the near - month futures to rebound. In the medium term, the pig supply is expected to be high in the second half of the year, and the price may continue to decline. The policy may support the price when it falls to a certain level. It is advisable for the industry to conduct hedging at high prices [40] Eggs - The egg futures price is accelerating its decline, and the short - selling funds are increasing. The spot price is weak, and the industry's over - capacity problem persists. In the medium term, the egg price needs to decline further to reduce capacity. Pay attention to the risk of short - covering after the rapid price decline [41] Cotton - The price of US cotton declined slightly. The US cotton good - to - excellent rate has increased. The Brazilian cotton harvest progress is slow. The Zhengzhou cotton price declined sharply overnight. The short - term upward momentum is weak due to weak downstream orders and expected production increase. The demand may improve in August, and the old - crop inventory is expected to be tight. Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see strategy [42] Sugar - The overnight price of US sugar oscillated. The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the US sugar price faces pressure. The domestic syrup import is low, and the domestic - produced sugar sales are fast with low inventory pressure. Pay attention to the weather and sugar - cane growth in the 25/26 sugar - making season. The sugar price is expected to oscillate [43] Apples - The apple futures price is oscillating. The cold - storage inventory is low, and the storage merchants are actively selling. The price of early - maturing apples is high, but the quality is average. The market is focusing on the new - season output estimate. There are differences in the output forecast. Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see strategy [44] Wood - The wood futures price is oscillating. The overseas price has increased for two consecutive months, while the domestic price has increased slightly. The domestic supply is expected to remain low as the traders are under pressure. The log inventory is low. Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see strategy [45] Pulp - The pulp futures price declined sharply yesterday. The port inventory in China has increased. The domestic social - retail data in July was weak, indicating weak domestic demand. The pulp supply is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. The downstream demand may improve as it approaches the peak season in August. Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see strategy [46] Financial Products Stock Index - The stock market declined with low trading volume yesterday. The North - Exchange 50 index reached a new high. The stock - index futures prices declined, with IH leading the decline. The brokerage firms are competing for customers through commission - rate cuts. The geopolitical pressure on the market risk - preference has eased as the Russia - Ukraine situation is moving in a positive direction [47] Treasury Bonds - The treasury - bond spot and futures prices are oscillating stably. The inter - bank funds are slightly tightened, and the non - bank institutions' financing cost is rising. The short - term bond market is difficult to recover significantly. The yield - curve steepening probability is increasing [47]