Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After continuous gains, high - flying sectors like AI have shown divergence recently, while sectors such as nuclear fusion, chips, and non - ferrous metals have emerged. Although short - term index fluctuations have increased, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips due to policy support for the capital market [4]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve. The market is likely to remain volatile under the intertwined bull - bear background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. Pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. - With the weakening of the US dollar credit and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, maintain a medium - term bullish view on precious metals. However, there is a significant risk of price correction in the short term [9]. - For most metals, factors such as supply - demand changes, cost fluctuations, and market sentiment affect their prices. For example, copper is supported by supply tightening and Fed rate - cut expectations; aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong; zinc is expected to be strong in the short term; and nickel may have a short - term downward exploration but is supported in the long term [12][14][16][18]. - For black building materials, although the current real - world demand for steel is weak, the market's expectation of demand recovery is rising. The price of iron ore may adjust if the downstream situation weakens. Glass is recommended to be treated bullishly in the short term, and soda ash is expected to be range - bound [31][33][35]. - For energy and chemical products, rubber is recommended to go long on dips; for crude oil, wait and see in the short term; methanol and urea can be considered for short - term long positions after a decline; and for some chemical products like PVC and ethylene glycol, the supply - demand situation is weak, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [53][55][56][58]. - For agricultural products, the prices of live pigs and eggs are expected to be weak in the short term; soybean meal is expected to be weak and volatile; oils are expected to be strong; sugar is recommended to be shorted on rallies; and cotton is likely to be weak in the short term [77][79][82][84][87][89]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market News**: The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs have imposed export controls on certain items; some foreign entities have been included in the unreliable entity list; some securities firms have adjusted the margin conversion ratios of certain stocks; and the price of spot gold remains high, with some banks adjusting their related businesses [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different contract periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the previous continuous rise, the high - flying sectors have shown divergence, and the short - term index fluctuations have increased. However, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market News**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts have changed; the daily average sales revenue of the national consumption - related industries during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays has increased year - on - year; and export controls have been imposed on some medium - heavy rare earth - related items [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 6120 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 14513 billion yuan on the day [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The manufacturing PMI has rebounded, but the follow - up social financing and money growth may be under pressure. The bond market is expected to be volatile, and pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver have declined, while the prices of COMEX gold and silver have increased. The US government shutdown has affected the release of economic data, and the Fed's meeting minutes show differences in the outlook for interest rates [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain a medium - term bullish view on precious metals, but pay attention to short - term price corrections [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market News**: After the National Day, the copper price continued to be strong. The LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory also increased. The spot import loss expanded, and the scrap copper substitution advantage increased [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply tightening and Fed rate - cut expectations support the copper price, but the short - term upward pace may slow down [12]. Aluminum - **Market News**: On the first day after the National Day, non - ferrous metals generally strengthened. The LME aluminum price rose, and the domestic aluminum inventory increased. The market atmosphere was warm, but the trade situation was still volatile [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The aluminum price is expected to be volatile and strong [14]. Zinc - **Market News**: The Shanghai zinc index rose, and the LME zinc price fell. The domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the zinc export window opened [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Shanghai zinc is expected to be strong in the short term [16]. Lead - **Market News**: The Shanghai lead index rose, and the LME lead price also rose. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Shanghai lead is expected to be in a wide - range low - level shock in the short term [17]. Nickel - **Market News**: The nickel price rose significantly. The nickel ore price was stable, the nickel iron price was stable, and the MHP coefficient price increased slightly [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term nickel price may decline, but it is supported in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long on dips [18]. Tin - **Market News**: The tin price was strong. The supply was expected to increase slightly, and the demand in the traditional consumer electronics and home appliance sectors was still weak [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin price is expected to be high - level volatile in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market News**: The carbonate lithium price was stable. The social inventory decreased, and a company obtained mining rights [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand mismatch has led to a decrease in inventory. Pay attention to the supply and demand situation and the market atmosphere [22]. Alumina - **Market News**: The alumina index rose. The domestic and overseas prices changed, and the import window opened [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The alumina market is expected to be volatile. Wait and see for the macro - mood resonance [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: The stainless steel price rose. The raw material prices were stable, and the social inventory decreased slightly [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The stainless steel price is expected to be range - bound. Pay attention to the RKAB approval progress [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: The cast aluminum alloy price rose. The trading volume increased, and the inventory increased slightly [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downstream consumption is in the peak season, but the delivery pressure of the near - term contract is large, and the upside space is limited [28]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market News**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rose. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil remained unchanged [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current real - world demand for steel is weak, but the market's expectation of demand recovery is rising. Pay attention to policy signals [31]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: The iron ore price rose. The overseas shipment decreased, and the domestic arrival increased. The steel mill's profit rate continued to decline [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The iron ore price may adjust if the downstream situation weakens. Pay attention to the "Silver October" performance after restocking [33]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market News**: The glass price rose, and the inventory increased. The soda ash price fell, and the inventory decreased [34][36]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass is recommended to be treated bullishly in the short term, and soda ash is expected to be range - bound [35][37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: The manganese silicon price rose slightly, and the ferrosilicon price fell slightly. The prices are in a shock range [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black sector may first decline and then rise. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's trend [39][40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market News**: The industrial silicon price was stable, and the polysilicon price fell. The supply and demand of industrial silicon changed little, and the polysilicon inventory was limited [42][44]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon is expected to be range - bound in the short term, and polysilicon may improve if the leading enterprises conduct maintenance [43][46]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - **Market News**: The rubber price stabilized. The tire production rate decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The spot price changed [48][50][52]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Go long on dips and partially build a hedging position [53]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: The crude oil price fell, and the inventories of related products changed. The US EIA data showed inventory changes [54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term and verify the OPEC's export - price - support intention [55]. Methanol - **Market News**: The methanol price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Consider short - term long positions after a decline [56]. Urea - **Market News**: The urea price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Consider long positions at a low price [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: The pure benzene price was stable, and the styrene price fell. The supply and demand changed, and the inventory increased [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The styrene price may stop falling due to the seasonal peak season [60]. PVC - **Market News**: The PVC price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was strong, and the demand was weak [61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PVC market is bearish in the medium term. Consider short positions [63]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: The ethylene glycol price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term [65]. PTA - **Market News**: The PTA price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was affected by maintenance, and the demand was stable [66]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term [67]. Para - Xylene - **Market News**: The para - xylene price rose, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was affected by PTA maintenance [68]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the terminal and PTA valuation [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: The PE price fell, and the inventory decreased. The supply was limited, and the demand was expected to increase [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price may rise in the long term [71]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: The PP price fell, and the inventory was high. The supply was large, and the demand was weak [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP market is in a weak supply - demand situation, and the inventory pressure is high [74]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market News**: The live pig price continued to fall. The slaughtering and sales situation was not good [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The live pig price is expected to be weak in the short term. Short the near - term contract and conduct reverse hedging [77]. Eggs - **Market News**: The egg price generally fell. The supply was greater than the demand, and the market confidence was low [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The egg price is expected to be weak in the short term. Wait for the bottom - building [79]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: The CBOT soybean price fell slightly. The domestic soybean meal price was stable, and the import cost was affected by multiple factors [80][81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic soybean meal supply pressure is large. It is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [82]. Oils - **Market News**: Indonesia is promoting the B50 biodiesel plan. The domestic oil price rose, and the inventory may decrease [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price is expected to be strong. Go long on dips [84]. Sugar - **Market News**: The sugar price rebounded slightly. The Brazilian sugar production data was released, and the port waiting quantity increased [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The sugar price is expected to be bearish in the long term. Short on rallies in the fourth quarter [87]. Cotton - **Market News**: The cotton price rebounded slightly. The spot price fell, and the acquisition price was lower than last year [88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price is likely to be weak in the short term. There is cost support at the bottom [89].

(本文来自第一财经) 沪铜主力合约日内涨4.3%，报86800元/吨。国际铜主力合约日内涨4.41%，报77330元/吨。 ...

Group 1 - The main copper futures contract opened lower, currently down 0.83%, reported at 78,710 yuan/ton [1] - The international copper main contract has fallen below 70,000 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.62% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai copper futures market experienced a slight decline this week, with a weekly change of -0.47% and a trading range of 1.02%, closing at 78,960 yuan per ton [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve officials are cautious about interest rate cuts, reducing traders' bets on two rate cuts this year [1] - The U.S. August S&P Global Composite PMI preliminary value reached 55.4, marking an 8-month high [1] Group 2: Domestic Policy and Investment - A 500 billion yuan "quasi-fiscal" tool will be launched, focusing on funding emerging industries and infrastructure [1] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Copper mine supply is being released, with the copper concentrate TC spot index recovering but still in negative territory, supporting copper prices [1] - Domestic smelter demand is expected to increase, leading to a slight growth in refined copper supply [1] - Downstream consumption remains subdued due to the off-season, but there may be pre-stocking demand as the peak season approaches, improving demand expectations [1] Group 4: Market Strategy - The overall supply of copper is expected to grow slightly, with stable demand expectations and industry inventory at a mid-low level [1] - A trading strategy of light positions and buying on dips is recommended, with an emphasis on controlling pace and risk [1]

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - The crude oil market is volatile. Brent's October contract fell 0.77%. There is pressure of accelerated inventory build - up after the third - quarter peak season, and the price center may decline in the medium term. Hold a long strangle strategy for out - of - the - money options in the short term and consider short positions later [2] Precious Metals - Overnight, precious metals were weak. With the clarification of US tariffs and progress in Russia - Ukraine talks, the market's risk - aversion sentiment has cooled, and precious metals are in an oscillatory adjustment phase. Wait patiently for pull - back entry points [3] Copper - Overnight, copper prices broke below the MA60 moving average. Trump included hundreds of end - products with high steel and aluminum content in the 50% tariff list. The copper market is still carefully assessing economic growth risks. Hold short positions above 79,000 for the main Shanghai copper contract [4] Aluminum and Related Products - Shanghai aluminum slightly declined. Aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 19,000 tons, and aluminum rod inventory decreased by 6,000 tons. It may be approaching the peak of off - season inventory build - up. Shanghai aluminum will mainly oscillate in the short term, with support around 20,300 yuan. Alumina has an oversupply situation, and its price is in a weak oscillation [5] - Cast aluminum alloy follows the movement of Shanghai aluminum. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the alloy industry's profit is poor. There is a possibility that the cross - variety spread between the spot and AL will gradually narrow [6] Zinc - In the first half of 2025, the output of major overseas zinc mines increased by over 12% year - on - year. The demand is in the off - season. Due to vehicle transportation restrictions in Tianjin, some galvanized small factories have stopped production. The supply - increase and demand - weak fundamentals dominate, and Shanghai zinc has fallen for five consecutive trading days. Be vigilant against macro - sentiment fluctuations as the "Golden September and Silver October" approach [7] Lead - The consumption of lead fails to show the peak - season characteristics, dragging the price into a weak oscillation. The raw - material supply is tight, providing strong cost support. In late August, pay attention to traffic control in lead - ingot production areas and regular maintenance of primary lead plants. There is an expectation of demand recovery after the beginning of autumn and approaching the new semester [8] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel slightly corrected. The social inventory of stainless steel has decreased for six consecutive times. However, the downstream's acceptance of high - priced stainless - steel products is still poor, and the supply is expected to increase. Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of the rebound, and it is advisable to enter short positions [9] Tin - Overnight, LME tin was the only base metal to close up. Indonesia's refined tin exports in July decreased by 15% month - on - month. With low overseas inventories and spot premiums, tin prices are supported. Hold short - term long positions based on the MA60 moving average [10] Carbonate Lithium - The carbonate lithium futures price is oscillating. The spot market has seen continuous sharp increases. The total market inventory is basically flat, with a decrease in smelter inventory and an increase in trader inventory. Adopt a short - term long strategy and manage risks well [11] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures oscillated and closed down. The policy details related to photovoltaics have not been updated, and the market sentiment has cooled. The terminal and downstream demand is stable, but the high - inventory pattern suppresses the spot price increase. There are opportunities to go long below 50,000 yuan/ton, but there is resistance above 53,000 yuan/ton [12] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures oscillated downward. The policy details related to photovoltaics have not been updated, and the market sentiment has declined. During the wet season, industrial silicon has a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with limited improvement in fundamentals. The main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 8,500 - 9,000 yuan/ton [13] Iron and Steel - Night - session steel prices continued to decline. The demand in the off - season is weak. The apparent demand for rebar continued to decline, and the inventory build - up accelerated. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils improved slightly, and the inventory build - up slowed down. Pay attention to the production - restriction intensity in Tangshan and other places as the military parade approaches [14] Iron Ore - Overnight, the iron - ore futures price weakened. The global iron - ore shipment is seasonally increasing, and the domestic arrival volume has increased. The port inventory is rising. The short - term demand is supported by high hot - metal production, but there is an expectation of hot - metal production reduction as the military parade approaches. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level [15] Coke and Coking Coal - Coke prices oscillated during the day. There is an expectation of production restriction for coking plants in East China due to approaching major events. The seventh round of coke price increase has improved coking profits, and the daily coking production has slightly increased. The overall coke inventory is decreasing [16] - Coking - coal prices oscillated during the day. The production of coking - coal mines has decreased, and the spot auction market is active. The overall coking - coal inventory is decreasing, and the production - end inventory decline has narrowed [16] Silicon Manganese and Silicon Ferrosilicon - Silicon manganese prices declined during the day. Pay attention to the shipment of South32's Australian mines. The demand from the hot - metal production is high. The weekly production of silicon manganese has increased, and the inventory has not yet accumulated. The price is affected by the "anti - involution" policy and follows coking - coal prices [17] - Silicon ferrosilicon prices declined during the day. The hot - metal production has slightly decreased. The export demand is stable, and the demand from the magnesium - metal industry has slightly declined. The supply of silicon ferrosilicon has increased significantly, and the market's spot and futures demand is good. The price follows silicon - manganese prices and is affected by the "anti - involution" policy [18] Shipping Index (European Line) - The current 10 - contract price of 1350 points corresponds to a spot price of about $1900/FEU. The spot price is on a downward trend, and the cargo volume is seasonally decreasing. The market is expected to remain bearish [19] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak among oil futures, while low - sulfur fuel oil is strong. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil from the Middle East to Asia is increasing, and the high - and low - sulfur spread has widened [20] Asphalt - After the US resumes importing Venezuelan oil, it is expected to have a diversion effect on North Asian resources. Sinopec's asphalt production has been decreasing year - on - year due to increased deep - processing load. With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October" construction season, the road demand is expected to recover. The BU price is expected to oscillate weakly and is likely to fluctuate narrowly between 3400 - 3500 yuan/ton for the October contract [21] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The overseas LPG market has stabilized recently. The domestic import and refinery supply have increased, and the domestic - produced gas is under pressure. Pay attention to the sustainability of the current high - operating rate as the propane cost advantage is weakening [22] Urea - The news of urea export - policy adjustment has disturbed the market. The fundamental situation has changed little. The agricultural demand is weak, and the production enterprises' inventory is under general pressure. The market is affected by market sentiment and export news [23] Methanol - Methanol inventories at ports are rapidly accumulating. The import volume remains high, and the MTO device operating rate in East China is low. The short - term market trend is weak. Pay attention to macro and market - sentiment changes [24] Pure Benzene - The price of pure benzene declined overnight. The domestic production has slightly decreased, and the import is expected to shrink. The port inventory is decreasing, and the fundamentals are improving. Consider inter - month spread trading in the third - quarter and fourth - quarter [25] Styrene - The styrene futures main - contract moving - average system is converging, and the price is in a consolidation pattern. The cost provides bottom support, but the single - side driving force is insufficient. The domestic styrene supply is expected to increase, while the downstream demand has an incremental expectation [26] Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - There are both start - up and shutdown plans for propylene plants. The demand from downstream products is general, and the downstream factories purchase propylene on a need - to - buy and low - price basis. The supply of polyethylene has slightly decreased, and the demand for agricultural films is increasing. The supply of polypropylene is expected to increase, and the short - term downstream demand is weak [27] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC is in a weak operation. India's anti - dumping tax on PVC imports has increased the export competition pressure. The supply is high, and the demand is insufficient. The social inventory has been accumulating since July. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [28] - Caustic soda prices have declined from a high level. The non - aluminum downstream demand in Shandong is good, and the inventory has decreased. The overall supply has slightly decreased due to plant maintenance. The short - term price is supported by restocking demand, but the long - term supply pressure remains [28] PX and PTA - The prices of PX and PTA declined overnight as the oil price weakened. The terminal weaving and dyeing operating rate has increased, and the polyester and PTA loads are relatively stable. The PTA near - month processing margin has declined. The PX supply - demand situation is expected to improve, and the valuation is expected to increase [29] Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene glycol price declined slightly due to the decline of peripheral chemical products. The import arrival volume has increased slightly, and the port inventory is accumulating. The terminal demand shows signs of improvement. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [30] Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip - The short - fiber supply - demand situation is stable, and the processing margin has slightly recovered. There is limited new capacity this year, and the peak - season demand is expected to boost the market. Consider a long - position configuration on dips and a positive inter - month spread strategy [31] - The bottle - chip processing margin is oscillating at a low level. The long - term over - capacity problem restricts the processing - margin recovery space [31] Glass - The glass price declined sharply overnight. The spot market is weak, and the price is falling. The inventory is expected to continue to accumulate this week. The deep - processing operating rate in Shahe is affected by the approaching military parade. The demand is weak, but the cost increase may prevent the price from breaking the previous low [32] Rubber - The international crude - oil price declined, and the Thai raw - material prices mostly increased. The global natural - rubber supply is entering the high - production season. The operating rates of domestic butadiene - rubber plants have declined, while the upstream butadiene plants' operating rates have increased. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao has decreased [33] Soda Ash - The soda - ash futures price declined sharply. The supply is expected to increase as Yuanxing has future production plans. The industry inventory is high at all levels. The photovoltaic market's fundamentals have improved, and the demand for heavy - soda ash has slightly increased. The long - term supply - demand situation is in surplus, and the price is under pressure at a high level [34] Agricultural Products Soybeans and Soybean Meal - As of August 17, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%. The future two - week weather in the US soybean - growing areas may pose challenges to new - season crops. China's anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed has boosted the bean - meal price. The soybean arrival volume from August to October is expected to be around 10 million tons. The domestic bean - meal market is cautiously bullish [35] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Overnight, the prices of US soybeans, US soybean oil, and Malaysian palm oil declined. The domestic soybean and palm - oil prices also decreased with reduced positions. The FOB bean - palm spread has turned negative. The long - term development trend of US and Indonesian biodiesel still exists, so maintain a long - position strategy on dips, but be cautious about short - term price fluctuations [36] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The overseas rapeseed futures prices declined overnight, dragging down the domestic rapeseed - related products. The China - Australia rapeseed trade is a hot topic. It is expected that Australian rapeseed will arrive in China at the end of the year. The short - term rapeseed - related futures prices are expected to have a weak rebound [37] Soybean No. 1 - Overnight, the price of domestic soybeans declined. The supply has increased marginally through the auction. The demand is weak. The weather is favorable for soybean growth this week. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans is narrowing. Pay attention to the weather, policies, and the performance of imported soybeans [38] Corn - As of August 19, the成交 rate of Cofco's imported - corn auctions was low. The US corn good - to - excellent rate was 71% as of August 17. The domestic corn market has not seen a policy - driven structural change in supply and demand. The Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [39] Livestock and Poultry Pigs - The short - term spot price of pigs has strengthened slightly, driving the near - month futures to rebound. In the medium term, the pig supply is expected to be high in the second half of the year, and the price may continue to decline. The policy may support the price when it falls to a certain level. It is advisable for the industry to conduct hedging at high prices [40] Eggs - The egg futures price is accelerating its decline, and the short - selling funds are increasing. The spot price is weak, and the industry's over - capacity problem persists. In the medium term, the egg price needs to decline further to reduce capacity. Pay attention to the risk of short - covering after the rapid price decline [41] Cotton - The price of US cotton declined slightly. The US cotton good - to - excellent rate has increased. The Brazilian cotton harvest progress is slow. The Zhengzhou cotton price declined sharply overnight. The short - term upward momentum is weak due to weak downstream orders and expected production increase. The demand may improve in August, and the old - crop inventory is expected to be tight. Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see strategy [42] Sugar - The overnight price of US sugar oscillated. The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the US sugar price faces pressure. The domestic syrup import is low, and the domestic - produced sugar sales are fast with low inventory pressure. Pay attention to the weather and sugar - cane growth in the 25/26 sugar - making season. The sugar price is expected to oscillate [43] Apples - The apple futures price is oscillating. The cold - storage inventory is low, and the storage merchants are actively selling. The price of early - maturing apples is high, but the quality is average. The market is focusing on the new - season output estimate. There are differences in the output forecast. Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see strategy [44] Wood - The wood futures price is oscillating. The overseas price has increased for two consecutive months, while the domestic price has increased slightly. The domestic supply is expected to remain low as the traders are under pressure. The log inventory is low. Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see strategy [45] Pulp - The pulp futures price declined sharply yesterday. The port inventory in China has increased. The domestic social - retail data in July was weak, indicating weak domestic demand. The pulp supply is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. The downstream demand may improve as it approaches the peak season in August. Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see strategy [46] Financial Products Stock Index - The stock market declined with low trading volume yesterday. The North - Exchange 50 index reached a new high. The stock - index futures prices declined, with IH leading the decline. The brokerage firms are competing for customers through commission - rate cuts. The geopolitical pressure on the market risk - preference has eased as the Russia - Ukraine situation is moving in a positive direction [47] Treasury Bonds - The treasury - bond spot and futures prices are oscillating stably. The inter - bank funds are slightly tightened, and the non - bank institutions' financing cost is rising. The short - term bond market is difficult to recover significantly. The yield - curve steepening probability is increasing [47]

Group 1 - The main copper futures contract experienced a sharp decline, shifting from an increase to a decrease, currently down by 0.22% at 78,810 yuan per ton [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant premium of U.S. copper futures at $1,400, indicating strong demand and bullish sentiment in the market [1] - The main copper futures contract in Shanghai has surpassed the 80,000 yuan mark, reflecting a robust performance in the domestic market [1] - The article questions the underlying reasons for the bullish sentiment among investors and traders in the copper market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The main copper futures contract has surged strongly, surpassing 80,000 yuan per ton, marking a nearly 2% increase and reaching a new high since early April [1] Group 1 - The copper price increase indicates a strong market demand and potential bullish sentiment in the copper industry [1] - The current price level reflects a significant recovery in the copper market compared to previous months [1]

Group 1 - The main contracts for copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, tin, lead, stainless steel, and alumina experienced mixed performance, with copper, aluminum, zinc, stainless steel, and alumina showing declines while nickel, tin, and lead recorded slight increases [1] - The closing prices for the main contracts were as follows: copper at 78,620 CNY/ton, aluminum at 20,010 CNY/ton, zinc at 22,225 CNY/ton, nickel at 122,280 CNY/ton, tin at 262,930 CNY/ton, lead at 16,710 CNY/ton, stainless steel at 12,615 CNY/ton, and alumina at 2,898 CNY/ton [1] - International copper main contract closed at 69,980 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.34% [1]

Group 1 - The main copper futures contract has increased by 2.00% during the day, currently priced at 76,280.00 yuan per ton [1]