| | | 本周沪铜主力合约继续呈现高位震荡格局，宏观对于铜价的扰动整体上有所减弱，但地缘冲突继续带来不稳定因素。中国外交部要求在刚 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 果（金）东部地区驻留的中国公民和企业应立即撤离该地区，目前刚果（金）安全形势复杂严峻，对矿区的影响需保持关注。基本面上， | | | | 高位震荡调整 | 近期市场消费有好转势头，市场交易较10月整体有所提升，社会库存近期有所回落。近期市场目光开始向矿长单谈判聚焦，另外自由港麦 | 观望 | | 铜 | 85000-88000 | 克莫兰计划于2026年二季度恢复印尼Grasberg矿区大规模生产，目前已重启两座未受灾害影响的地下矿山，这有望缓解矿端供应的焦虑情 | 或轻仓区间交易 | | | | 绪。铜长期需求前景依然乐观，人工智能、AI算力、绿色能源等行业发展对铜消耗存在高预期，铜价上涨潜力依然较大，但短期需警惕高 | | | | | 铜价对消费的抑制作用以及美联储政策预期变化带来的压力。短期内铜价高位运行的状态不改，沪铜主力运行区间或继续维持在85000- | | | | | 88000一线，建议观望 ...

11月21日（周五），伦敦金属交易所(LME)期铜下滑，预计本周将录得跌幅，因强势美元及喜忧参半的 9月就业数据令投资者在美联储12月利率决议前保持谨慎。 LME三个月期铝下跌0.94%，至每吨2,787.50美元；期锌下跌1.33%，至每吨2,976美元；期铅下跌 1.07%，至每吨1,989美元；期锡下跌0.79%，至每吨36,775美元；期镍下跌0.94%，至每吨14,365美元。 沪铝主力合约下滑1.09%，收报每吨21,340元；沪铅合约下跌0.46%，收报每吨17,165元；沪锌下跌 0.09%，收报每吨22,395元；沪镍下跌1.75%，收报每吨114,050元；沪锡下跌0.93%，收报每吨290,740 元。 （文华综合） 周四因美国政府停摆而推迟公布的9月就业数据向美联储发出了好坏参半的信号，决策者正在考虑12月 份的利率决定，该数据显示新增就业岗位增长强于预期，但失业率升至近四年来的新高。 9月就业数据将是12月利率决议前发布的最后一次官方就业数据。 由于许多美联储官员仍持鹰派态度，美元依然强劲，这对以美元计价的大宗商品造成了压力，使持有其 他货币的投资者认为这些商品更加昂贵。 截至北京时 ...

（责任编辑：王治强 HF013） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 每经AI快讯，11月6日，上海期货交易所的沪铜主力合约收涨1.04%，收盘报86320.0元/吨，日内资 金流出3.7亿元。 每日经济新闻 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: The ongoing government shutdown continues to affect liquidity [2][4]. - Silver: Expected to rebound with oscillations [2][5]. - Copper: Lacks clear drivers, with prices expected to oscillate [2][9]. - Zinc: Expected to trade within a range [2][12]. - Lead: Reduced overseas inventories support prices [2][16]. - Tin: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts [2][19]. - Aluminum: Expected to perform strongly [2][23]. - Alumina: Expected to rebound from the bottom [2][23]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Expected to follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][23]. - Nickel: Constrained by inventory accumulation at the smelting end, supported by uncertainties at the mine end [2][25]. - Stainless steel: Steel prices are expected to oscillate narrowly at a low level [2][25]. 3. Summary by Commodity Gold - **Price and Performance**: Shanghai Gold 2512 closed at 912.26 with a daily decline of 0.36% and a night - session increase of 0.63% to 916.38; Comex Gold 2512 rose 1.25% to 3990.40 [5]. - **Trend Strength**: Gold trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [7]. Silver - **Price and Performance**: Shanghai Silver 2512 closed at 11276 with a daily increase of 0.33% and a night - session increase of 1.58% to 11381; Comex Silver 2512 rose 2.06% [5]. - **Trend Strength**: Silver trend strength is - 1, indicating a weak - bearish view [7]. Copper - **Price and Performance**: Shanghai Copper main contract closed at 85670 with a daily decline of 0.08% and a night - session increase of 0.27% to 85900; LME Copper 3M rose 0.79% to 10733 [9]. - **Industry News**: Chile's state - owned mining company ENAMI obtained environmental permits for a new $1.7 billion copper smelter; Indonesia granted Amman Mineral International a 400,000 - ton copper concentrate export quota; Chile's September copper production was 456,663 tons, up 7.79% month - on - month and down 4.5% year - on - year; Glencore plans to close its Canadian smelter and refinery [9][11]. - **Trend Strength**: Copper trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [11]. Zinc - **Price and Performance**: Shanghai Zinc main contract closed at 22650 with a daily decline of 0.09%; LME Zinc 3M closed at 3077.5 with a decline of 0.98% [12]. - **Trend Strength**: Zinc trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [15]. Lead - **Price and Performance**: Shanghai Lead main contract closed at 17475 with a daily increase of 0.34%; LME Lead 3M closed at 2021 with a decline of 0.44% [16]. - **Trend Strength**: Lead trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [17]. Tin - **Price and Performance**: Shanghai Tin main contract closed at 282090 with a daily decline of 0.58% and a night - session increase of 0.28% to 282820; LME Tin 3M rose 0.21% to 35745 [19]. - **Trend Strength**: Tin trend strength is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view [22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Performance**: Shanghai Aluminum main contract closed at 21395, Shanghai Alumina main contract closed at 2772, and the aluminum alloy main contract closed at 20830 [23]. - **Industry News**: US employment showed signs of stabilization; the US October ISM services PMI rebounded strongly [24]. - **Trend Strength**: Aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy trend strengths are all 0, indicating neutral views [24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Performance**: Shanghai Nickel main contract closed at 120030, and the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12535 [25]. - **Industry News**: An Indonesian nickel mine was taken over by the forestry working group; China suspended a non - official subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia; Indonesia imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies; Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on China [25][26][27]. - **Trend Strength**: Nickel and stainless - steel trend strengths are both 0, indicating neutral views [27].

每经AI快讯，10月30日，上海期货交易所的沪铜主力合约收跌0.1%，收盘报87960.0元/吨，日内资金流 出8.88亿元。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

(本文来自第一财经) 沪铜主力合约日内涨幅扩大至2%，现报86510元/吨；国际铜主力合约日内涨幅扩大至2%，现报76930 元/吨。 ...

每经AI快讯，10月13日，沪铜主力合约开盘小幅拉升，日内跌幅收窄至2.07%，现报85040.00元/吨。国 际铜主力合约日内跌幅收窄至2.00%，现报75600.00元/吨。 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market opened significantly lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 2.49%, the Shenzhen Component down 3.88%, and the ChiNext Index down 4.44% [3][4] - The Hong Kong market also saw declines, with the Hang Seng Index down 2.5% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 2.43% [6][7] Stock Performance - Weite New Materials (688585) resumed trading and hit the daily limit down, falling 20% to 105.68 CNY [5] - Major stocks in the Hong Kong market, such as Bilibili and SenseTime, dropped over 5%, while Shandong Gold and Kingsoft saw gains of over 3% and 6%, respectively [6][8] Commodity Market - Futures for coking coal saw a significant drop, with a daily decline of 3%, trading at 1129 CNY per ton [10] - The price of spot gold increased by 0.72%, reaching a peak of 4060.05 USD per ounce [13] Currency Exchange - The central parity rate of the RMB against the USD was reported at 7.1007, an increase of 41 basis points from the previous trading day [10]

Group 1 - Domestic commodity futures opened lower in the morning, with most contracts declining [1] - The Shanghai copper main contract opened slightly higher, with a daily decline narrowing to 2.07%, currently reported at 85,040.00 CNY/ton [1] - The FTSE China A50 index futures fell by 2% at the start of trading, following a previous session decline of 4.26% [1] Group 2 - Spot gold rose by 0.72%, reaching a maximum of 4,060.05 USD/ounce [1] - The international copper main contract's daily decline narrowed to 2.00%, currently reported at 75,600.00 CNY/ton [1] - Other commodities such as crude oil and glass fell over 3%, while BR rubber and NR dropped over 2% [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After continuous gains, high - flying sectors like AI have shown divergence recently, while sectors such as nuclear fusion, chips, and non - ferrous metals have emerged. Although short - term index fluctuations have increased, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips due to policy support for the capital market [4]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve. The market is likely to remain volatile under the intertwined bull - bear background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. Pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. - With the weakening of the US dollar credit and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, maintain a medium - term bullish view on precious metals. However, there is a significant risk of price correction in the short term [9]. - For most metals, factors such as supply - demand changes, cost fluctuations, and market sentiment affect their prices. For example, copper is supported by supply tightening and Fed rate - cut expectations; aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong; zinc is expected to be strong in the short term; and nickel may have a short - term downward exploration but is supported in the long term [12][14][16][18]. - For black building materials, although the current real - world demand for steel is weak, the market's expectation of demand recovery is rising. The price of iron ore may adjust if the downstream situation weakens. Glass is recommended to be treated bullishly in the short term, and soda ash is expected to be range - bound [31][33][35]. - For energy and chemical products, rubber is recommended to go long on dips; for crude oil, wait and see in the short term; methanol and urea can be considered for short - term long positions after a decline; and for some chemical products like PVC and ethylene glycol, the supply - demand situation is weak, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [53][55][56][58]. - For agricultural products, the prices of live pigs and eggs are expected to be weak in the short term; soybean meal is expected to be weak and volatile; oils are expected to be strong; sugar is recommended to be shorted on rallies; and cotton is likely to be weak in the short term [77][79][82][84][87][89]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market News**: The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs have imposed export controls on certain items; some foreign entities have been included in the unreliable entity list; some securities firms have adjusted the margin conversion ratios of certain stocks; and the price of spot gold remains high, with some banks adjusting their related businesses [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different contract periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the previous continuous rise, the high - flying sectors have shown divergence, and the short - term index fluctuations have increased. However, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market News**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts have changed; the daily average sales revenue of the national consumption - related industries during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays has increased year - on - year; and export controls have been imposed on some medium - heavy rare earth - related items [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 6120 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 14513 billion yuan on the day [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The manufacturing PMI has rebounded, but the follow - up social financing and money growth may be under pressure. The bond market is expected to be volatile, and pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver have declined, while the prices of COMEX gold and silver have increased. The US government shutdown has affected the release of economic data, and the Fed's meeting minutes show differences in the outlook for interest rates [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain a medium - term bullish view on precious metals, but pay attention to short - term price corrections [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market News**: After the National Day, the copper price continued to be strong. The LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory also increased. The spot import loss expanded, and the scrap copper substitution advantage increased [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply tightening and Fed rate - cut expectations support the copper price, but the short - term upward pace may slow down [12]. Aluminum - **Market News**: On the first day after the National Day, non - ferrous metals generally strengthened. The LME aluminum price rose, and the domestic aluminum inventory increased. The market atmosphere was warm, but the trade situation was still volatile [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The aluminum price is expected to be volatile and strong [14]. Zinc - **Market News**: The Shanghai zinc index rose, and the LME zinc price fell. The domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the zinc export window opened [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Shanghai zinc is expected to be strong in the short term [16]. Lead - **Market News**: The Shanghai lead index rose, and the LME lead price also rose. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Shanghai lead is expected to be in a wide - range low - level shock in the short term [17]. Nickel - **Market News**: The nickel price rose significantly. The nickel ore price was stable, the nickel iron price was stable, and the MHP coefficient price increased slightly [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term nickel price may decline, but it is supported in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long on dips [18]. Tin - **Market News**: The tin price was strong. The supply was expected to increase slightly, and the demand in the traditional consumer electronics and home appliance sectors was still weak [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin price is expected to be high - level volatile in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market News**: The carbonate lithium price was stable. The social inventory decreased, and a company obtained mining rights [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand mismatch has led to a decrease in inventory. Pay attention to the supply and demand situation and the market atmosphere [22]. Alumina - **Market News**: The alumina index rose. The domestic and overseas prices changed, and the import window opened [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The alumina market is expected to be volatile. Wait and see for the macro - mood resonance [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: The stainless steel price rose. The raw material prices were stable, and the social inventory decreased slightly [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The stainless steel price is expected to be range - bound. Pay attention to the RKAB approval progress [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: The cast aluminum alloy price rose. The trading volume increased, and the inventory increased slightly [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downstream consumption is in the peak season, but the delivery pressure of the near - term contract is large, and the upside space is limited [28]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market News**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rose. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil remained unchanged [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current real - world demand for steel is weak, but the market's expectation of demand recovery is rising. Pay attention to policy signals [31]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: The iron ore price rose. The overseas shipment decreased, and the domestic arrival increased. The steel mill's profit rate continued to decline [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The iron ore price may adjust if the downstream situation weakens. Pay attention to the "Silver October" performance after restocking [33]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market News**: The glass price rose, and the inventory increased. The soda ash price fell, and the inventory decreased [34][36]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass is recommended to be treated bullishly in the short term, and soda ash is expected to be range - bound [35][37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: The manganese silicon price rose slightly, and the ferrosilicon price fell slightly. The prices are in a shock range [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black sector may first decline and then rise. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's trend [39][40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market News**: The industrial silicon price was stable, and the polysilicon price fell. The supply and demand of industrial silicon changed little, and the polysilicon inventory was limited [42][44]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon is expected to be range - bound in the short term, and polysilicon may improve if the leading enterprises conduct maintenance [43][46]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - **Market News**: The rubber price stabilized. The tire production rate decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The spot price changed [48][50][52]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Go long on dips and partially build a hedging position [53]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: The crude oil price fell, and the inventories of related products changed. The US EIA data showed inventory changes [54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term and verify the OPEC's export - price - support intention [55]. Methanol - **Market News**: The methanol price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Consider short - term long positions after a decline [56]. Urea - **Market News**: The urea price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Consider long positions at a low price [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: The pure benzene price was stable, and the styrene price fell. The supply and demand changed, and the inventory increased [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The styrene price may stop falling due to the seasonal peak season [60]. PVC - **Market News**: The PVC price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was strong, and the demand was weak [61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PVC market is bearish in the medium term. Consider short positions [63]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: The ethylene glycol price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term [65]. PTA - **Market News**: The PTA price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was affected by maintenance, and the demand was stable [66]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term [67]. Para - Xylene - **Market News**: The para - xylene price rose, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was affected by PTA maintenance [68]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the terminal and PTA valuation [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: The PE price fell, and the inventory decreased. The supply was limited, and the demand was expected to increase [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price may rise in the long term [71]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: The PP price fell, and the inventory was high. The supply was large, and the demand was weak [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP market is in a weak supply - demand situation, and the inventory pressure is high [74]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market News**: The live pig price continued to fall. The slaughtering and sales situation was not good [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The live pig price is expected to be weak in the short term. Short the near - term contract and conduct reverse hedging [77]. Eggs - **Market News**: The egg price generally fell. The supply was greater than the demand, and the market confidence was low [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The egg price is expected to be weak in the short term. Wait for the bottom - building [79]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: The CBOT soybean price fell slightly. The domestic soybean meal price was stable, and the import cost was affected by multiple factors [80][81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic soybean meal supply pressure is large. It is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [82]. Oils - **Market News**: Indonesia is promoting the B50 biodiesel plan. The domestic oil price rose, and the inventory may decrease [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price is expected to be strong. Go long on dips [84]. Sugar - **Market News**: The sugar price rebounded slightly. The Brazilian sugar production data was released, and the port waiting quantity increased [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The sugar price is expected to be bearish in the long term. Short on rallies in the fourth quarter [87]. Cotton - **Market News**: The cotton price rebounded slightly. The spot price fell, and the acquisition price was lower than last year [88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price is likely to be weak in the short term. There is cost support at the bottom [89].