一、冲突背景与深层矛盾 导火索：克什米尔恐怖袭击 5月2日，印巴边境局势持续恶化，双方围绕克什米尔主权争议展开激烈交火。巴基斯坦军方证实，巴空军当日击落一架 印度侦察无人机，并摧毁印方3个前沿哨所，造成至少12名印度士兵伤亡。印度国防部长辛格随后召开紧急会议，宣布向 边境增派2个装甲师，并誓言"对任何挑衅予以坚决回击"。联合国秘书长古特雷斯发表声明，对冲突升级表示"严重关 切"，呼吁双方立即停火并通过对话解决争端。 长期逻辑支撑 地缘风险溢价 中国现代国际关系研究院魏亮指出，印巴冲突若升级为全面战争，可能导致全球能源价格波动和供应链中断，黄金作 为"非信用资产"的战略价值将凸显。摩根大通模型显示，冲突每持续一周，黄金价格将获得约2%的避险溢价。 美联储政策博弈 高盛分析师哈米德认为，尽管地缘风险升温，但若美国4月非农数据强劲（预期新增就业13.3万人），可能强化美联储推 迟降息的立场，压制金价。反之，若数据疲软，黄金或开启新一轮涨势。 印度陆军参谋长乔希4月30日视察边境部队时下令"采取一切必要措施确保国家安全"，并向拉贾斯坦邦部署"布拉莫斯"超 音速巡航导弹。巴基斯坦则在旁遮普省举行大规模防空演习，试射"巴 ...

Group 1: Tensions between India and Pakistan - Pakistan's Defense Minister Asif stated that an "imminent military invasion" by India is expected, leading to heightened military readiness in Pakistan [1][2] - The Indian military reported ongoing skirmishes with Pakistani forces in the Kashmir region for the fourth consecutive night, although Pakistan has not confirmed these claims [1][6] - Following a deadly shooting incident in Indian-administered Kashmir that resulted in 26 deaths, both India and Pakistan have taken aggressive measures, escalating tensions [1][8] Group 2: India's Military Procurement - India has signed a contract with France to purchase 26 Rafale fighter jets, which will complement the previously acquired 36 Rafale jets [4][5] - This procurement is part of India's broader strategy to modernize its military hardware and enhance its defense capabilities [4][5] - The deal includes training, equipment, weapons, and logistical support for the Indian military [5] Group 3: Military Exercises and Responses - The Indian Navy conducted long-range strike exercises in the Arabian Sea, showcasing its naval capabilities [7] - The exercises were planned prior to the recent shooting incident, indicating a preemptive military posture by India [7] - The U.S. State Department is closely monitoring the situation and is in contact with both Indian and Pakistani governments to encourage a responsible resolution [7]