证券研究报告 军费增长释放需求，格局重塑催生机遇 -军贸行业深度研究报告 西部证券研发中心 2025年11月27日 分析师 |张恒晅 S0800525020001 zhanghengxuan@research.xbmail.com.cn 分析师 | 刘砚菲 S0800525040001 liuyanfei@research.xbmail.com.cn 摘要 军费快速增长，地缘冲突下军贸供需格局演进 军贸产品结构：飞机为主，导弹需求增加，无人装备前景广阔 中国军贸：体系化输出，积极把握出海机遇 投资建议 • 建议关注：洪都航空，中航成飞，中航西飞，内蒙一机（已覆盖），中兵红箭，国博电子，国睿科技，高 德红外。 行业评级 超配 前次评级 超配 评级变动 维持 | 相对表现 | 1个月 | 3个月 | 12个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国防军工 | -4.17 | -8.82 | 10.99 | | 沪深300 | -4.21 | 3.00 | 15.63 | 请务必仔细阅读报告尾部的投资评级说明和声明 2 近一年行业走势 -13% -7% -1% 5% 11% 17% 23% ...

大家好，我是阿凯瞰天下。 俄乌这仗打了四年，早就不是俄军单方面"推塔"的局面了。 乌克兰现在是一边硬扛前线进攻，一边反手盯着俄罗斯的软肋打，再加上国际社会的实打实支援，俄罗斯是能源赚钱的路被堵，国内的日子也不好过，战局 的风向其实已经悄悄变了。 屋漏偏逢连夜雨，近期西伯利亚还发生了重大天然气管道爆炸，火光冲天几百米高，周边的工厂全被迫停了产。 一、精准打击戳软肋，俄能源经济扛不住 你发现没，乌克兰现在的反击真是"打蛇打七寸"，专挑俄罗斯最疼的地方下手。 以前还只是在前线对峙，现在倒好，每天夜里都有乌军的无人机、导弹往俄罗斯本土飞，不管是炼油厂、发电厂这种显眼的大目标，还是藏在偏远地方的变 电站，能打就绝不放过。 这些打击看着零散，实则直接掐断了俄罗斯的"钱袋子"——能源出口。有数据摆在这，10月份俄罗斯化石燃料出口额跌到了全面入侵以来的最低点，日均才 6.09亿美元，比9月份还少了4%。 更惨的是油价，俄罗斯的乌拉尔原油现在每桶才卖36美元，比国际基准价低了足足23.51美元，说白了，这价格连开采和运出去的成本都不够，纯属亏本买 卖。 为啥会这么惨？一方面是乌克兰的打击让能源设施老出问题，另一方面是美国的制裁 ...

据乌克兰国家通讯社等媒体17日报道，乌克兰和法国已经签署包括购买100架"阵风"战斗机在内的意向 书。乌克兰总统泽连斯基称，乌克兰向法国订购"阵风"战斗机是"历史性的"。 【环球网报道 记者 张江平】综合俄新社等媒体18日报道，俄罗斯总统新闻秘书、克里姆林宫发言人佩 斯科夫称，无论乌克兰获得哪种战机，都不会改变前线形势。 据《俄罗斯商业咨询日报》网站18日报道，佩斯科夫对记者称，"法国继续向基辅政权供应武器。法方 现在这么做，计划明天也这样做。令人遗憾的是，巴黎无论如何都没有推动实现和平"。 另据俄新社报道，佩斯科夫还称，"无论向基辅政权出售哪种战机，都不会改变前线形势"。 ...

Core Points - Ukraine will purchase "up to 100" French-made Rafale fighter jets, along with air defense systems and drones, as confirmed by the Élysée Palace during President Zelensky's visit to Paris [1][2] Group 1 - The agreement was signed during President Zelensky's visit to Paris, which is described as a "historic agreement" by Zelensky [2] - The signing took place at the Villacoublay Air Base, southwest of Paris, in the presence of French President Macron [2]

Core Points - The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that in the past 24 hours, Russian forces targeted 142 locations in Ukraine, including fuel energy facilities, railway infrastructure, and temporary deployment points of Ukrainian armed forces and foreign mercenaries, destroying multiple tanks, armored vehicles, field guns, and ammunition depots [1] - Ukrainian Air Force reported that from the evening of November 16, Russian forces launched attacks using 2 "Iskander-M" ballistic missiles and 128 drones, with Ukrainian air defense forces managing to shoot down or suppress 91 drones by 9 AM on November 17 [1] - French President Macron announced that Ukraine will purchase 100 "Rafale" fighter jets, radar systems, air defense systems, and drones from France, highlighting France's support for Ukraine in both military and economic sectors [1]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Governor Waller supports a 25 basis point rate cut in December, stating that the AI bull market has not significantly impacted employment, and the cooling effect is only "moderate" [1] - Warren Buffett makes a significant bet on Google after 20 years, with Berkshire Hathaway establishing a new position in Google stock [2] - Elon Musk announces that Tesla will build its own chip factory to accelerate AI chip supply and address current reliance on Samsung and TSMC's production capacity [3] Group 2 - Novo Nordisk lowers the prices of Wegovy and Ozempic to $349, initiating a price war in the weight loss drug market and directly challenging Eli Lilly's market position [4] - Amazon issues $12 billion in bonds, joining the AI financing wave among tech giants, with funds allocated for cloud computing and AI infrastructure expansion, attracting approximately $80 billion in subscription demand [5] Group 3 - Major European stock indices close lower, with the Euro Stoxx 50 index down 0.85%, led by declines in technology and financial stocks amid concerns over global demand slowdown [9] - U.S. Treasury yields show mixed results, with the 30-year Treasury yield down 1.20 basis points; Bitcoin futures drop 2.87%, reaching a six-month low, impacting related cryptocurrency stocks [10] - U.S. stock indices collectively decline, with the Dow Jones down 1.2%, Nasdaq down 1.1%, and S&P 500 down 1.05%, as investors worry about overbuilding in the AI sector, highlighted by Peter Thiel's fund liquidating all Nvidia shares last quarter [11]

新华社巴黎11月17日电（记者唐霁）法国总统马克龙17日在会见到访的乌克兰总统泽连斯基后对媒体宣 布，乌克兰和法国已经签署包括购买100架"阵风"战斗机在内的意向书。 ...

该意向书列出了乌方未来可能采购正在研发的新一代SAMP/T防空系统等装备。法国总统府说意向书非 购买和销售合同，全部交付预计将在"约十年时间内"实现。 11月17日，泽连斯基到访法国，并与马克龙在维拉库布莱空军基地签署军购意向书。乌方将从法国采购 100架"阵风"战斗机和其他防空设备。 ...

11月17日，泽连斯基到访法国，并与马克龙在维拉库布莱空军基地签署军购意向书。乌方将从法国采购 100架"阵风"战斗机和其他防空设备。该意向书列出了乌方未来可能采购正在研发的新一代SAMP/T防空 系统等装备。法国总统府说意向书非购买和销售合同，全部交付预计将在"约十年时间内"实现。 ...

Core Points - Ukraine's President Zelensky visited France and signed a military procurement letter of intent with President Macron, involving the potential purchase of up to 100 Rafale fighter jets and other defense equipment [1][3] - The letter of intent is described as "historic" and outlines Ukraine's future procurement plans for Rafale jets, the new generation SAMP/T air defense system, radar systems, and drones [3] - The French presidential office clarified that the letter of intent is not a purchase and sales contract, with full delivery expected to be realized in approximately ten years [3]