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贵州三力(603439):业绩短期承压,加速拓展OTC渠道
Guotou Securities· 2025-04-27 06:05
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" investment rating for the company, with a 6-month target price of 13.11 CNY, which corresponds to a dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of 17 times for 2025 [4][5]. Core Insights - The company experienced a revenue of 2.144 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 31.16%, while the net profit decreased by 6.38% to 274 million CNY [1]. - The company's OTC channel revenue has significantly increased, surpassing the prescription channel, supported by the growth of core products such as the "Kaitoujian" spray [3]. - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth rates of 16.9%, 16.0%, and 14.9% for the years 2025 to 2027, with net profit growth rates of 15.3%, 18.2%, and 17.2% respectively [4]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 409 million CNY, a decline of 3.18% year-on-year, and a net profit of 42 million CNY, down 25.16% [1]. - The sales revenue from respiratory system medications reached 1.455 billion CNY in 2024, marking an 11.89% increase, with significant progress in the coverage of the "Kaitoujian" product [2]. - The company has established a nationwide OTC direct sales network, enhancing its market presence and operational efficiency [3]. Future Projections - The company forecasts a steady increase in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with projected revenues of 2.508 billion CNY in 2025 and 2.909 billion CNY in 2026 [9][10]. - The net profit is expected to rise to 316 million CNY in 2025 and 373 million CNY in 2026, indicating a positive growth trajectory [9][10].
贵州三力(603439):2024年报、2025年一季报点评:短期有所承压,渠道多维扩张为中长期蓄能
Soochow Securities· 2025-04-25 09:02
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guizhou Sanli (603439) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on performance, but its multi-dimensional channel expansion is expected to provide long-term growth potential [1][3] - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 2.144 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 31.16%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 6.38% to 274 million yuan [8][9] - The company continues to expand its channels, including the establishment of an e-commerce center and partnerships with major online pharmaceutical platforms [3] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue projections for Guizhou Sanli are as follows: 1.635 billion yuan in 2023, 2.144 billion yuan in 2024, 2.521 billion yuan in 2025, 2.898 billion yuan in 2026, and 3.280 billion yuan in 2027, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 36.10%, 31.16%, 17.57%, 14.96%, and 13.16% [1][10] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 292.7 million yuan in 2023, 274.03 million yuan in 2024, 319.78 million yuan in 2025, 380.55 million yuan in 2026, and 447.69 million yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 45.42%, -6.38%, 16.70%, 19.01%, and 17.64% respectively [1][10] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 0.71 yuan in 2023, 0.67 yuan in 2024, 0.78 yuan in 2025, 0.93 yuan in 2026, and 1.09 yuan in 2027 [1][10] Market Data Summary - The closing price of Guizhou Sanli is 12.03 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 4.93 billion yuan [6] - The company has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17.99 for the current price and latest diluted EPS [10]