Core Viewpoint - The company, Baili Tianheng, has faced significant volatility in its financial performance, primarily due to reliance on non-recurring income, raising concerns about the sustainability of its profit model [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Baili Tianheng reported a net profit of 3.7 billion yuan, a dramatic increase from a loss of 780 million yuan in the previous year, attributed to an 800 million USD upfront payment from Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMS) [2]. - However, in Q1 2025, the company's revenue plummeted by 98.77% to 67 million yuan, with a net loss of 531 million yuan, highlighting the instability of its earnings [4]. Revenue Structure - The company's revenue is primarily derived from chemical and traditional Chinese medicine preparations, with the leading product, Propofol emulsion injection, experiencing a significant decline in revenue due to national procurement policies [5][6]. - Propofol emulsion injection's revenue fell from 212 million yuan in 2023 to 132 million yuan in 2024, a decrease of approximately 38% [6][7]. Market Competition - The company faces increasing competition in the pharmaceutical market, particularly from new drugs like Remimazolam, which offers superior efficacy and lower side effects compared to Propofol [8]. - The traditional Chinese medicine segment has remained relatively stable, but rising raw material costs have pressured profit margins [8]. Research and Development - Baili Tianheng's R&D investment as a percentage of revenue has been low, with figures of 53.32%, 132.81%, and 24.78% from 2022 to 2024, indicating a lack of commitment to innovation compared to industry peers [10][11]. - The average R&D expenditure ratio for comparable companies in 2024 was 53%, suggesting that Baili Tianheng is significantly lagging behind [11]. Challenges Ahead - The company is grappling with multiple challenges, including severe earnings volatility, declining traditional business, and insufficient innovation, raising questions about its future sustainability [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" investment rating for the company, with a 6-month target price of 13.11 CNY, which corresponds to a dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of 17 times for 2025 [4][5]. Core Insights - The company experienced a revenue of 2.144 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 31.16%, while the net profit decreased by 6.38% to 274 million CNY [1]. - The company's OTC channel revenue has significantly increased, surpassing the prescription channel, supported by the growth of core products such as the "Kaitoujian" spray [3]. - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth rates of 16.9%, 16.0%, and 14.9% for the years 2025 to 2027, with net profit growth rates of 15.3%, 18.2%, and 17.2% respectively [4]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 409 million CNY, a decline of 3.18% year-on-year, and a net profit of 42 million CNY, down 25.16% [1]. - The sales revenue from respiratory system medications reached 1.455 billion CNY in 2024, marking an 11.89% increase, with significant progress in the coverage of the "Kaitoujian" product [2]. - The company has established a nationwide OTC direct sales network, enhancing its market presence and operational efficiency [3]. Future Projections - The company forecasts a steady increase in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with projected revenues of 2.508 billion CNY in 2025 and 2.909 billion CNY in 2026 [9][10]. - The net profit is expected to rise to 316 million CNY in 2025 and 373 million CNY in 2026, indicating a positive growth trajectory [9][10].

四川百利天恒药业股份有限公司 上市公告书 股票简称：百利天恒 股票代码：688506 四川百利天恒药业股份有限公司 上市公告书 特别提示 四川百利天恒药业股份有限公司（以下简称"百利天恒"、"发行人"、"公 司"或"本公司"）股票将于 2023 年 1 月 6 日在上海证券交易所科创板上市。 本公司提醒投资者应充分了解股票市场风险及本公司披露的风险因素，在新股上 市初期切忌盲目跟风"炒新"，应当审慎决策、理性投资。 四川百利天恒药业股份有限公司 （成都市温江区成都海峡两岸科技产业园百利路 161 号一幢一号） 首次公开发行股票科创板上市公告书 保荐机构（主承销商） （广东省深圳市福田区福田街道福华一路 119 号安信金融大厦） 二〇二三年一月五日 1 四川百利天恒药业股份有限公司 上市公告书 第一节 重要声明与提示 一、重要声明 本公司及全体董事、监事、高级管理人员保证上市公告书所披露信息的真实、 准确、完整，承诺上市公告书不存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏，并依法 承担法律责任。 上海证券交易所（以下简称"上交所"）、有关政府机关对本公司股票上市 及有关事项的意见，均不表明对本公司的任何保证。 本 公 司 ...