德国10年期公债收益率周三创下数月新高，交易员的定价排除欧洲央行进一步降息的可能性，聚焦于稍 晚的关键美联储会议。 意大利10年期公债收益率也上升4个基点，达到3.59%。 交易员也在减少对其他全球央行进一步宽松的押注，但最重要的央行--美联储是个例外。市场预计美联 储将在周三稍晚降息25个基点，并认为明年可能还会有两次降息。 如果美联储周三会议不降息，将令市场大跌眼镜，但未来前景更令人怀疑，交易商将急于消化决策者的 经济和利率预测。 回到欧洲，虽然法国公债收益率与德国同步上涨，但涨幅略小，法国和德国10年期公债收益率差距为71 个基点，约为8月以来最低。 此举提振了市场情绪，周二，法国议会以微弱优势通过了2026年社会保障预算，为法国总理勒科尔尼 （Sebastien Lecornu）赢得关键性的胜利，但也付出了巨大的政治和财政代价，这仍可能威胁到他脆弱 的政府。 法国10年期公债收益率上升4个基点至3.60%，也接近3月以来高点。 德国10年期公债收益率略升4个基点至2.89%，上次触及该水平是在3月德国大幅增加借贷和政府支出之 后。 近几个月来，欧元区指标收益率基本处于区间波动状态，但周一欧洲央行颇具影 ...

Core Viewpoint - Eurozone bond yields rose on Thursday, following the trend of U.S. bonds, as investors focused on the Federal Reserve's policy outlook and awaited key U.S. employment data later in the day [1][5]. Group 1: Eurozone Bond Yields - The German 10-year government bond yield increased by 0.5 basis points to 2.75% [2][6]. - The market remains cautious regarding the potential for a comprehensive and credible peace agreement in Ukraine, which could alleviate inflationary pressures and support economic growth, thereby influencing the European Central Bank's policy path [2][7]. Group 2: U.S. Bond Influence - U.S. borrowing costs continue to dominate market trends, with expectations that the European Central Bank will maintain interest rates until 2027 [4][9]. - The U.S. 10-year bond yield rose by 2.5 basis points to 4.08%, following a decline on Wednesday, as data showed an unexpected decrease in private sector jobs for November [4][9]. - The German 2-year bond yield, which is more sensitive to expectations regarding the European Central Bank's policy rate, increased by 1 basis point to 2.06%, having previously reached 2.08%, the highest level since the end of March [4][9].