周五亚洲盘面，黄金依旧守在 4080 美元附近，整体波动幅度有限。市场节奏仍围绕美联储 12 月会议展 开，而隔夜发布的美国就业数据显著超过预期，使原本快速聚集的降息预期明显回落。美元因此获得支 撑，黄金的反弹势头再次受阻。 最新公布的 9 月非农录得增加 11.9 万人，远超市场先前预估的 5 万人；与此同时，8 月就业数据被下修 为减少 4000 人，失业率也从 4.3% 升至 4.4%。由于政府停摆造成的延后统计，使得这份报告在发布时 间上更具突发性，投资者也因此重新审视美国劳动力市场的韧性与后续政策空间。 尽管利率预期重新转向令黄金承压，但下方的支撑力量依然稳固。避险资金在全球宏观风险未完全消散 的背景下持续流入，同时央行增持步伐并未放慢。数据显示，中国人民银行 9 月增持黄金 1.2 吨，并在 10 月实现连续第 12 个月增储。随着美国 PMI 初值及消费者信心指数将在晚间公布，市场情绪可能再 度切换，金价短线节奏将继续受数据牵引。 黄金目前在 4080—4100 区间内反复整理。更强劲的就业数据压缩了市场降息预期，而美联储内部持续 存在的分歧也限制了金价上行空间。不过，避险资金与央行持续增持为下 ...

Group 1 - The agreement officially ends a 43-day government shutdown, allowing federal operations to resume until January 30, 2026 [1] - Market focus is shifting towards the backlog of economic data, which will quickly test the current monetary policy outlook [1] Group 2 - Key missing reports: Federal agencies will begin releasing two months of lagging data, including September and October Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) and October Consumer Price Index (CPI) [2] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is expected to release NFP data within 2-5 business days after resuming operations, potentially as early as this weekend or more likely early next week [2] - The rapid release of economic data will challenge the Federal Reserve's policy outlook, with market attention on whether the data indicates a weak labor market (supporting a rate cut in December) or persistent inflation (limiting easing) [2] Group 3 - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market expects a 66.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, a significant drop from 92% a month ago [3] Group 4 - The resolution of the government shutdown and the upcoming lagging economic data have led to increased volatility in the foreign exchange market [4] - The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) is maintaining a consolidation around 99.00, with a technical bias still leaning towards bullish due to expectations of the Federal Reserve's policy remaining unchanged and future policy uncertainty [5] Group 5 - The USDX is expected to continue consolidating before the upcoming data provides clearer direction, with the 99.00-100.00 range being a critical testing zone for potential breakouts [8] Group 6 - Despite a slight weakening of the dollar, the USD/JPY pair has seen a small increase, indicating that the pair is correcting from last week's temporary strength due to risk aversion [9] - As the U.S. government shutdown nears its end, the main drivers for yen demand are diminishing, pushing USD/JPY back into bullish momentum [9] Group 7 - Gold prices have continued to rise this week, driven by uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy, a weaker dollar, and the diminishing risk of a government shutdown [12] - As of now, gold prices have increased by over 5% this week, with investors reallocating to alternative safe-haven and inflation-hedging assets, anticipating that the upcoming data flood may challenge the Federal Reserve's policy stance [12] Group 8 - Technically, gold has continued to rise after breaking above $4,200, with recent resistance in the $4,180-$4,200 range, indicating a potential breakout [15] - If gold prices maintain a solid breakout above $4,200, it could signal a bullish opportunity, while a pullback near resistance may present a buying opportunity, with recent support around $4,135 [15] Group 9 - The market is expected to remain highly volatile on Thursday, with investors repricing in the context of the U.S. government reopening while awaiting the release of lagging economic data [16] - The dollar is anticipated to maintain a range-bound pattern, with resistance at 100 and support at 99, sustaining a short-term consolidation phase [16] - Gold remains bullish in the current market environment, but caution is advised as prices approach the critical $4,200 level; a solid breakout could lead to further upward movement, while resistance may result in short-term consolidation or pullback [16]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices rebounded above $4,000, reflecting investor assessment of the latest U.S. labor data's impact on Federal Reserve policy outlook [1] Group 1: Market Performance - New York gold futures rose by 0.7% to $4,021.40 per ounce, while the U.S. dollar index fell by 0.2% to 99.97 [1] - Gold has increased by 52% year-to-date, supported by central bank purchases, ETF inflows, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Private sector hiring rebound alleviated concerns about a weakening U.S. labor market [1] - Service sector continues to grow, serving as a key driver of the U.S. economy [1] Group 3: Market Uncertainty - Increased uncertainty for traders regarding economic outlook and potential further easing paths, especially with the Federal Reserve's last meeting in 2025 approaching and key data delayed due to government shutdown [1]

Core Insights - The US dollar index experienced fluctuations, briefly surpassing the 100 mark, and has risen for four consecutive trading days, currently trading around 99.80. The ongoing battle around the 100 level is influenced by increasing divisions within the Federal Reserve, weak economic data, and concerns over a government shutdown, although there are hidden supports within the US economy [1] - The primary driver for the dollar index's rise is a cautious shift in the Federal Reserve's policy outlook. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut in December has dropped to 65%, down significantly from 94% a week prior. This change is attributed to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's recent statements indicating that the likelihood of a rate cut in December is far from certain, and policymakers should maintain a "wait-and-see" approach until official data is released [1] Technical Analysis - The daily chart of the dollar index shows that it has consistently held above the 99.36 level after breaking through it. The measured upward target is around 100.45, with the 100 mark serving as the first resistance level, followed by the measured target point of 100.45. Support for the dollar index is at 99.36, along with an upward trend line indicated in red on the chart [2]

Core Viewpoint - The labor market is facing increasing downside risks, influenced by tightening immigration policies that have led to a sudden slowdown in labor growth [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted the rising risks in the labor market during the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference [1] - San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly emphasized the uncertainty regarding whether price increases related to tariffs are temporary, warning that waiting for definitive evidence could harm the labor market [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Current market positioning suggests limited downside potential for the US dollar, but a significant drop in job openings reported in the JOLTS could further confirm the deterioration of the labor market, potentially putting pressure on the dollar [1] - Conversely, if the JOLTS data exceeds expectations, it is unlikely to alter the market's existing outlook on Federal Reserve policy, thus having a limited potential uplifting effect on the dollar [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that silver prices are experiencing a downturn, trading around $38.00, influenced by expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, which is providing some support for precious metals [1] - Market sentiment remains cautious, leading to a flow of safe-haven funds into commodities, while the possibility of more aggressive easing by the U.S. central bank is diminishing, contributing to a stronger U.S. dollar [1] - The CME FedWatch tool shows an 84% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in September, which is impacting silver prices positively [1] Group 2 - From a technical perspective, silver is hovering above the neckline of a bearish double top pattern formed in the $38.50-$39.00 range, indicating a loss of upward momentum [3] - A decisive drop below the support level of $37.50 could open the door for further declines to $36.50 or even $35.50 [3] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is neutral around the 50 mark, and the MACD shows early signs of convergence near the zero line, reinforcing the view that silver is currently in a consolidation phase with no clear direction [3]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have seen a moderate increase due to a weakening dollar, as investors await clearer trade negotiations between the U.S. and its trading partners, along with upcoming PPI inflation data that may provide further guidance on the Federal Reserve's policy outlook [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Analysts note that the dollar has softened ahead of the U.S. PPI data release, leading traders to adopt a cautious stance after recent gains, which has contributed to the moderate rise in gold prices [1] - Despite new tariffs announced by Trump, the gold market has repeatedly fallen below the $3,400 mark, indicating potential resistance at this level [1] Group 2: Future Projections - ANZ Bank has projected that gold prices may consolidate in the short term but are expected to rise again to $3,600 per ounce by the end of the year [1]

Core Insights - The recent developments in Ukraine peace negotiations have led to a slight decline in gold prices after a previous increase of over 1% [1] - Despite a phone call between Trump and Putin, no significant breakthroughs were reported, although Trump indicated that Moscow and Kyiv would "immediately begin ceasefire talks" [1] - Upcoming speeches from several Federal Reserve officials are expected to provide more clarity on the Fed's policy outlook [1] Summary by Categories - **Market Reaction** - Gold prices experienced a slight decrease following a rise of over 1% in the previous trading day due to trader assessments of the Ukraine peace talks [1] - **Political Developments** - Trump and Putin's conversation did not yield major breakthroughs, but it was noted that ceasefire negotiations would commence between Moscow and Kyiv [1] - **Monetary Policy Outlook** - The speeches from Federal Reserve officials scheduled for Tuesday evening may clarify the future direction of the Fed's policies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the gold market are primarily influenced by the easing of trade tensions and uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy outlook [3][4][7]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have stabilized around $3,312 per ounce, with a recent decline of nearly 1% due to reduced demand for safe-haven assets as trade tensions ease [1][3]. - The historical high for gold was reached at $3,500.05 per ounce, but the easing of trade tensions has led to a decrease in safe-haven demand, resulting in a price drop [3][7]. - Other precious metals, including silver, platinum, and palladium, have also experienced declines, reflecting a shift in market risk appetite and investor caution regarding the global economic outlook [6]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - Investors are closely monitoring key U.S. economic data, including the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index and the monthly non-farm payroll report, which will influence the Federal Reserve's policy decisions [4][8]. - Strong economic data may lead the Federal Reserve to maintain current interest rates or adopt a tightening policy, exerting downward pressure on gold prices [4]. - Conversely, weak economic data could prompt the Federal Reserve to implement easing measures, providing support for gold prices [4][8]. Group 3: Trade Policy Implications - The Trump administration plans to reduce taxes on foreign parts used in U.S. manufactured cars and ensure that imported vehicles are not subject to multiple tariffs, potentially benefiting the U.S. automotive industry and alleviating trade friction concerns [5]. - The specifics of this policy adjustment and its market reactions will require further observation [5].