随着交易员等待美国多项关键数据公布，包括零售销售、通胀数据，以及备受关注的非农就业报告，美 元在新的一周开局表现疲弱。 来源：市场资讯 （来源：今日金价行情） 24K99讯 周一(2月9日)，主要受美元大跌推动，现货黄金价格暴涨近2%，回到5000美元/盎司大关上 方。投资者正准备迎接本周一系列经济数据，以研判美联储政策前景。 现货黄金周一收盘暴涨91.82美元，涨幅1.85%，报5057.89美元/盎司。 美元大跌 美元指数周一触及逾一周低点，这令以美元计价的黄金对海外买家而言更具吸引力。 追踪美元兑六种主要货币的美元指数(DXY)周一大跌0.84%，报96.86。 值得注意的是，主要因凯文·沃什被提名为下一任美联储主席，美元指数上周飙升近1%。 彭博社报道称，中国监管机构已建议金融机构降低美国国债曝险。该消息对周一美元走势构成下行压 力。 道明证券全球大宗商品策略主管Bart Melek表示，周一金价主要驱动因素是美元走势。市场对美国经济 数据、尤其是就业数据疲软的预期愈发加深。 荷兰国际集团(ING)分析师在最新的一份报告中指出："上周美国就业市场数据意外偏弱，市场正准备应 对美联储可能重新评估其对就业 ...

格隆汇1月30日｜City Index高级市场分析师Fiona Cincotta表示,围绕这一决定的预期阶段，市场已经出现 了一定程度的波动。沃什通常以立场偏鹰而闻名，但近来他的表态更多向特朗普靠拢，语气也略显鸽 派。因此，市场目前仍在观望这对美联储政策前景究竟意味着什么。归根结底，美联储必须坚持数据依 赖，也必须保持独立性。我不认为这一点会在沃什任下发生改变。即便美联储主席发生更替，这仍是一 个委员会运作的机构。如果数据并未显示有必要转向更鸽派的立场，仅凭一个人是很难推动这种改变 的。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Following the historic high of gold prices on Wednesday, investors are taking profits, and concerns about potential U.S. military action against Iran have eased, reducing demand for safe-haven assets [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Investors are cashing in on gains after gold prices reached a record high [1] - Eased concerns regarding U.S. military action against Iran have contributed to the decline in demand for safe-haven assets [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - President Trump has adopted a more conciliatory tone towards Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which has further dampened market sentiment [1] - Investors are now focusing on the weekly initial jobless claims data from the U.S. for insights into the Federal Reserve's policy outlook [1]

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is currently experiencing a bullish trend, with prices trading above 17.17, and a focus on upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll (NFP) data that may influence the labor market outlook and Federal Reserve policy [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - As of the latest update, silver is priced at 17.29 yuan per gram, reflecting a 1.76% increase, with a high of 17.39 and a low of 16.89 [1] - Analysts from XS.com indicate that unless the NFP report exceeds expectations, the current strength of the U.S. dollar may be limited and temporary [1] - The dollar is described as being in a "fragile state," with any signs of labor market weakness potentially leading to a decline [1] Group 2: Technical Indicators - The daily chart shows that silver prices opened around the previous closing price and then rebounded, indicating a potential upward trend [1] - The one-hour Bollinger Bands suggest a prevailing bearish trend, while the MACD histogram shows a divergence indicating an emerging upward trend [1] - DMI indicates a momentum crossover leaning towards bullish, with support levels identified between 16.00 and 17.30, and resistance levels between 17.50 and 18.00 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that there is a proposal to reduce interest rates by 150 basis points by 2026 to further support labor market recovery, based on an assessment of inflation and policy effectiveness [2] - Current monetary policy is seen as restrictive, impacting employment, with a focus on whether inflation is close enough to the target rather than if it has fully returned to it [2][4] - The underlying inflation rate is around 2.3%, considered normal noise rather than a signal for continued high rates, indicating a mid-term trend perspective rather than a reaction to short-term data [2] Group 2 - There is a disconnect between official forecasts and market expectations, with policymakers being conservative in their adjustments while the market anticipates more easing [3] - Milan's consistent stance since last year reflects a long-term observation of inflation structure changes and labor supply elasticity, prioritizing the need for economic recovery over short-term inflation concerns [4] - The core message emphasizes the need to reassess the policy focus away from excessive risk aversion towards addressing real economic recovery needs, especially as inflation pressures ease [4]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have risen due to a weaker dollar and investor anticipation of key U.S. economic data releases [1] Group 1: Market Impact - New York gold futures increased by 1.1% to $4,377.40 per ounce during early trading [1] - The U.S. dollar index remained stable at 98.36 [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The upcoming non-farm payroll report and consumer price index (CPI) inflation data for November are highly anticipated [1] - These reports are expected to provide further insights into the Federal Reserve's policy outlook [1] Group 3: Analyst Insights - FP Markets analyst Aaron Hill noted that many are focused on the pace of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve next year [1] - Gold typically benefits in a low-interest-rate environment [1]

Market Overview - The market is characterized by conflicting opinions, with some predicting declines while others anticipate gains, reflecting the inherent nature of market dynamics [1] - Investors are advised to avoid being swayed by external opinions, as this can lead to indecision and poor judgment [1] Gold Market Analysis - As of December 5, the spot gold price is trading around $4225.50 per ounce, showing stability despite pressures from rising U.S. Treasury yields and a strengthening dollar [1] - The market is awaiting U.S. inflation data, specifically the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which is expected to influence the Federal Reserve's policy decisions [1] - Technical analysis indicates that gold experienced a pullback to the 10-day moving average at $4175, with a subsequent rebound, suggesting a consolidation phase with both bullish and bearish sentiments present [2] - The upcoming PCE data is anticipated to create volatility in the gold market, necessitating close monitoring [2] Oil Market Analysis - Oil prices are rebounding, driven by macroeconomic expectations and supply uncertainties, with WTI crude oil rising 1.2% to $59.67 per barrel [5] - The market sentiment is shifting towards bullish as expectations grow for the Federal Reserve to initiate a new round of interest rate cuts, which would lower financing costs and support energy demand [5] - The oil market is currently supported by a combination of favorable macro conditions, tight supply, and strengthening technical indicators [5] - Technical analysis shows that oil prices are testing support levels around $56, with potential for upward movement if these levels hold [6] Trading Strategies - For gold, the recommended trading strategy involves focusing on buying on dips and selling on rebounds, with key resistance levels identified at $4250-$4270 and support at $4200-$4180 [4] - For oil, the strategy also emphasizes buying on dips and selling on rebounds, with short-term resistance at $61.0-$62.0 and support at $58.0-$57.0 [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that international gold prices have shown a rebound after hitting a low, suggesting potential for further strength in the future [1] - On the previous trading day, gold opened at $4203.37 per ounce, reached a low of $4175.18, and closed at $4208.64, with a daily fluctuation of $44.15 and a gain of $5.27, representing an increase of 0.125% [3] - The market is currently experiencing a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish factors, influenced by a drop in initial jobless claims to 191,000, a three-year low, which pressured gold prices down, while expectations of interest rate cuts and buying support are providing upward momentum [3] Group 2 - Looking ahead, gold prices are expected to open weakly due to the recent rise in the US dollar index, but remain above the middle track, indicating potential buying opportunities [3] - The dollar index is in a downward channel and below the 200-day moving average resistance, suggesting a generally weak outlook for the dollar, which could be favorable for gold prices [3]

Core Viewpoint - Eurozone bond yields rose on Thursday, following the trend of U.S. bonds, as investors focused on the Federal Reserve's policy outlook and awaited key U.S. employment data later in the day [1][5]. Group 1: Eurozone Bond Yields - The German 10-year government bond yield increased by 0.5 basis points to 2.75% [2][6]. - The market remains cautious regarding the potential for a comprehensive and credible peace agreement in Ukraine, which could alleviate inflationary pressures and support economic growth, thereby influencing the European Central Bank's policy path [2][7]. Group 2: U.S. Bond Influence - U.S. borrowing costs continue to dominate market trends, with expectations that the European Central Bank will maintain interest rates until 2027 [4][9]. - The U.S. 10-year bond yield rose by 2.5 basis points to 4.08%, following a decline on Wednesday, as data showed an unexpected decrease in private sector jobs for November [4][9]. - The German 2-year bond yield, which is more sensitive to expectations regarding the European Central Bank's policy rate, increased by 1 basis point to 2.06%, having previously reached 2.08%, the highest level since the end of March [4][9].

Core Viewpoint - International silver prices are experiencing fluctuations, with recent data supporting a bullish outlook due to expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1][2] Group 1: Market Data - As of Thursday, international silver prices are reported at $58.54 per ounce, with a peak of $58.75 and a low of $58.28 during the trading session [1] - The ADP employment report for November indicated a decrease of 32,000 jobs, contrasting with market expectations of an increase of 40,000 jobs, which has heightened the significance of this data [1] - The market anticipates an 89% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming FOMC meeting [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Following the ADP data release, international silver prices reached a historical high of $58.98 before retreating to close at $58.45 per ounce [2] - Despite a dip to a daily low of $57.54, the upward trend in silver prices remains intact, although a "moderate divergence" between price movements and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) may indicate a potential pullback [2] - If a pullback occurs, the initial support area is projected to be between $53.80 and $54.00, with further testing of the 50-day moving average at $50.25 [2] - Conversely, a strong buying momentum that breaks through the $59.00 level could target $60.00, potentially setting new historical highs [2]