资本市场预期，一旦连接亚欧的最短航道——红海-苏伊士运河恢复安全通行，大量为绕行非洲好望角 而占用的船舶运力将得到释放，全球供应链的效率将得以修复，居高不下的集装箱运费率也将随之回 落。 自2023年以来，胡塞武装已在红海及亚丁湾对商船发动了数百次导弹与无人机袭击，迫使全球航运业不 得不承担更高的运输时间和燃料成本。因此，任何关于航道恢复正常的信号，都会被资本市场解读为航 运公司超额利润的终结。 然而，分析师同时警告，这种基于预期的交易行为并未完全传递至航运业的实际决策层。航运公司在确 认袭击威胁被永久解除前，可能会进行长达数月的观察，才会将价值数亿美元的巨轮和船员重新派往该 高风险航线。 随着以军宣布加沙停火协议已生效，投资者预期持续近两年的"红海航运危机"将迎来终结。 据央视新闻，10月10日，以色列国防军发言人表示，加沙停火协议已经生效。资本市场率先做出反应， 丹麦航运巨头马士基（Maersk）的股价应声下跌2%。 投资者预期，红海-苏伊士运河恢复安全通行，大量为绕行非洲好望角而占用的船舶运力将得到释放， 全球供应链的效率将得以修复，居高不下的集装箱运费率也将随之回落。 与资本市场的"抢跑"形成鲜明对比 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant impact of the recent Iran-Israel conflict on the insurance market, leading to increased insurance premiums and a reevaluation of risk by insurance companies [1][2] - The conflict has caused a notable rise in shipping insurance costs in the Middle East, with rates increasing from 0.2-0.3% to 0.5% of the vessel's value [2][3] - Insurance companies are adjusting their pricing strategies in response to the heightened risks associated with geopolitical tensions, moving towards more dynamic and flexible pricing models [5][6] Group 2 - The demand for specific insurance products has increased, particularly in export credit insurance and political risk insurance, as businesses seek to mitigate risks associated with supply chain disruptions and political instability [7][8] - The conflict has led to a rise in demand for political risk insurance (PRI) as a key credit enhancement tool for financing post-war reconstruction and energy cooperation projects [8] - Small and medium-sized enterprises are showing a significant decline in their willingness to purchase insurance due to the economic pressures resulting from the conflict [8] Group 3 - The investment strategies of insurance capital are shifting towards defensive adjustments, increasing allocations to safe-haven assets while reducing exposure to high-risk sectors affected by the conflict [9][10] - There is a notable reduction in exposure to high-risk assets such as sovereign debt from Middle Eastern countries, with a corresponding increase in allocations to gold and high-rated government bonds [11] - Insurance companies are also considering investments in alternative supply chain regions as a hedge against risks associated with the Middle East [11]