Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BYD [10] Core Views - The target price for BYD shares is adjusted to HKD 458.8, representing a potential upside of 20% for the Hong Kong stock and RMB 444.0 for the A-share, with a potential upside of 23% [2][6] - BYD's first-quarter performance sets a growth tone for 2025, with a projected sales volume of 5.5 million vehicles for the year, driven by significant advancements in smart driving technology [10] - The report anticipates a doubling of BYD's overseas sales this year, while single-vehicle profitability is expected to remain stable [10] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for BYD from 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: RMB 602,315 million - 2024: RMB 777,102 million - 2025E: RMB 892,238 million - 2026E: RMB 1,053,310 million - 2027E: RMB 1,186,221 million - Revenue growth rates are projected at 42% for 2023, 29% for 2024, and gradually decreasing to 13% by 2027 [3][11] - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: RMB 30,041 million - 2024: RMB 40,254 million - 2025E: RMB 49,632 million - 2026E: RMB 60,562 million - 2027E: RMB 70,470 million - Net profit growth rates are expected to be 81% in 2023, 34% in 2024, and tapering to 16% by 2027 [3][11] Performance Analysis - In Q1 2025, BYD's revenue reached RMB 170,360 million, a 36% year-on-year increase, while net profit doubled to RMB 9,155 million [12] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was reported at 20.1%, showing a decline of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year but an increase of 3.1 percentage points from the previous quarter [12] - The automotive sales volume in Q1 2025 was 1,000,804 units, reflecting a 60% year-on-year growth [12] Valuation Methodology - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, assigning price-to-earnings ratios of 28.0x for the electric vehicle segment, 17.0x for mobile and electronic businesses, and 10.0x for other segments, leading to target prices of HKD 458.8 and RMB 444.0 [10][14]

Core Viewpoint - Recent research by浦银国际证券有限公司 on BYD (002594) indicates a downward adjustment of the target price to RMB 444.0, maintaining a "buy" rating based on strong sales forecasts and performance in the electric vehicle sector [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - BYD's Q1 2025 net profit exceeded market expectations, reaching RMB 91.6 billion, a 100% year-on-year increase, significantly influenced by approximately RMB 1.9 billion in financial income [3]. - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 was RMB 1,704 billion, a 36% year-on-year growth, despite a 38% quarter-on-quarter decline [3]. - The automotive sales volume grew by 60% year-on-year, while electronic revenue growth was moderate, and the average selling price of vehicles decreased, impacting overall revenue growth [3]. Group 2: Sales and Market Outlook - The company maintains a sales forecast of 5.5 million vehicles for the year, driven by significant advancements in smart driving technology [2]. - BYD's overseas sales are expected to double this year, contributing to overall growth [2]. - The company showcased its technological capabilities at the recent Shanghai Auto Show, promoting various brands and models to enhance sales [2]. Group 3: Valuation and Estimates - The valuation for BYD is based on a segmented approach, assigning price-to-earnings ratios of 28.0x for the new energy vehicle segment, 17.0x for mobile and electronic businesses, and 10.0x for other businesses, leading to target prices of HKD 458.8 and RMB 444.0 [3]. - Current P/E ratios for BYD's Hong Kong and A-shares are 18.5x and 18.2x, respectively, indicating attractive valuation levels [2][3]. Group 4: Analyst Ratings - In the last 90 days, 39 institutions have provided ratings for BYD, with 34 "buy" ratings and 5 "hold" ratings, reflecting strong market confidence [5].