Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: IPO Return Estimation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model estimates the returns of IPO investments by considering account size, subscription limits, winning rates, and IPO yield rates[47] - **Model Construction Process**: The model calculates the IPO return for a single account using the formula: $ \text{Single Account IPO Return} = \min(\text{Account Size}, \text{Subscription Limit}) \times \text{Winning Rate} \times \text{Yield Rate} $ For full subscription scenarios, the formula is: $ \text{Full Subscription Return} = \text{Subscription Limit} \times \text{Winning Rate} \times \text{Yield Rate} $ - Winning rate is based on actual IPO results - Yield rate is determined by the price difference between the IPO price and the first trading day price for registration-based IPOs, or the price difference on the opening day for non-registration-based IPOs[47] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a structured approach to estimate IPO returns under different scenarios, but it relies on historical data and assumptions, which may introduce subjectivity[47][72] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. IPO Return Estimation Model - **Main Board**: - August 2025: A-class return rate: 0.014%, C-class return rate: 0.013%[48] - Full subscription return: A-class: 6.8 million yuan, C-class: 6.4 million yuan[57] - **ChiNext Board**: - August 2025: A-class return rate: 0.066%, C-class return rate: 0.064%[48] - Full subscription return: A-class: 33.2 million yuan, C-class: 32.1 million yuan[57] - **Cumulative 2025 Returns**: - A-class: 1.134%, C-class: 1.035%[54] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Winning Rate Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the probability of winning IPO shares based on investor category and market conditions[30][31] - **Factor Construction Process**: Winning rates are calculated as the ratio of successful allocations to total applications, segmented by investor categories (A-class and C-class) and market boards (Main Board, ChiNext, etc.)[30][31] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively captures the allocation efficiency and competitiveness of different investor categories in IPOs[30][31] 2. Factor Name: Yield Rate Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Represents the profitability of IPO investments based on the price difference between the IPO price and the trading price[47] - **Factor Construction Process**: Yield rate is calculated as: $ \text{Yield Rate} = \frac{\text{Trading Price} - \text{IPO Price}}{\text{IPO Price}} $ - For registration-based IPOs, the trading price is the average price on the first trading day - For non-registration-based IPOs, the trading price is the average price on the opening day[47] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor provides a direct measure of IPO profitability but may be influenced by market volatility and external factors[47] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Winning Rate Factor - **Main Board**: - A-class: 0.12‰, C-class: 0.12‰[30] - **ChiNext Board**: - A-class: 0.25‰, C-class: 0.24‰[30] 2. Yield Rate Factor - **Main Board**: - August 2025: 140.68%[23] - **ChiNext Board**: - August 2025: 302.58%[23]

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3]

- The report tracks the recent performance of the IPO market, focusing on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board (STAR Market), ChiNext, and the Main Board, assuming all stocks are fully subscribed and sold at the average market price on the first day of listing, excluding lock-up restrictions[2][10] - As of August 1, 2025, the IPO yield for a 2 billion A-class account is 1.92%, while for a 10 billion A-class account, it is 0.61%[2][10] - The average first-day increase for STAR Market stocks is 218.45%, and for ChiNext stocks, it is 227.38%, based on the performance of 20 recently listed stocks[2][20] - The median number of valid bidding accounts for STAR Market IPOs is approximately 3,062 for A-class accounts and 1,602 for B-class accounts, while for ChiNext IPOs, the numbers are 3,630 and 2,080, respectively[2][27] - The report calculates the theoretical full subscription income for each stock using the formula: **Full Subscription Quantity = Maximum Subscription Limit × Average Offline Winning Rate** **Full Subscription Income = (First Board Price - Initial Offering Price) × Full Subscription Quantity**[39][42] - The highest full subscription income among recent IPOs is 141.4 million yuan for Huadian New Energy, followed by 44.18 million yuan for Yitang Co., and 17.26 million yuan for Shanda Electric[42][45] - For A-class accounts, the cumulative IPO yield since 2024 is 5.65% for a 2 billion account, while for 2025 alone, it is 1.92%[47][48] - For B-class accounts, the cumulative IPO yield since 2024 is 4.64% for a 2 billion account, while for 2025 alone, it is 1.72%[51][52]

- The report tracks the recent performance of the offline IPO market for the STAR Market, ChiNext, and the Main Board, assuming all stocks are hit and sold at the market average price on the first day of listing, ignoring the lock-up period restrictions [1][11] - Since 2025 until 2025/5/16, the IPO yield for a Class A 2 billion account is 1.32%, and for a Class B 2 billion account is 1.15%; for a Class A 10 billion account, the IPO yield is 0.30%, and for a Class B 10 billion account, the IPO yield is 0.27% [1][11] - The median number of valid quotation accounts for recent 20 new stocks is tracked, with the number of valid quotation accounts for Class A STAR Market new stocks around 3051, and for Class B around 1784; for Class A ChiNext new stocks around 3414, and for Class B around 2056; for Class A Main Board stocks around 3493, and for Class B around 2376 [2][23] - The average first-day increase for STAR Market stocks is 198.41%, and for ChiNext stocks is 227.46% [1][16] - The report measures the theoretical IPO yield for different scale accounts, assuming all stocks are hit and sold at the market average price on the first day of listing, ignoring the lock-up period restrictions [1][11] - The report lists the IPO results for recent new stocks, including the issuance price, issuance P/E ratio, industry P/E ratio, number of new shares issued, and the actual fundraising amount [25][26] - The report provides a calendar of recent IPOs, including the status of stocks waiting for inquiry, waiting for issuance price announcement, waiting for subscription, and waiting for listing [27][28][29] - The report calculates the full subscription yield for each stock, using the average winning rate of Class A institutions to estimate the yield when fully subscribed [35][37] - The report lists the monthly IPO yield and IPO yield rate for different scale Class A accounts, assuming all stock quotations are included, with a 90% fund utilization efficiency [42][43][44][45][46] - The report lists the monthly IPO yield and IPO yield rate for different scale Class B accounts, assuming all stock quotations are included, with a 90% fund utilization efficiency [47][48][49][50][51]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [1]. Core Insights - The report tracks the recent performance of the offline IPO market across the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, Growth Enterprise Market, and Main Board, indicating that the average first-day price increase for Sci-Tech Innovation Board stocks is 196.22% and for Growth Enterprise Market stocks is 242.95% [2][15]. - The report highlights the average IPO returns for different account sizes, with A-class accounts of 200 million yielding a return of 1.27% and B-class accounts yielding 1.10% since the beginning of 2025 [10][40]. - The report notes that the recent IPOs have seen significant oversubscription, with C Tian You Wei's online subscription rate at 0.03% and an oversubscription multiple of 3314.88 [20][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Tracking Recent IPO Returns - The report provides a detailed analysis of the recent IPO returns, showing that A-class accounts with a scale of 200 million achieved a return of 1.27% while B-class accounts achieved 1.10% [10][40]. - The average first-day price increase for the last 20 IPOs is significantly high, with the Sci-Tech Innovation Board averaging 196.22% and the Growth Enterprise Market averaging 242.95% [15][2]. 2. Recent IPO Results - C Tian You Wei (603202.SH) listed on the Main Board with an issue price of 93.5 yuan and a market capitalization of approximately 3217.42 million yuan, achieving a subscription oversubscription multiple of 3314.88 [20][22]. - C Jiang Shun Ke (001400.SZ) listed with an issue price of 37.36 yuan and a market capitalization of 560.40 million yuan, with an oversubscription multiple of 8526.25 [21]. - C Zhong Jie (301560.SZ) listed on the Growth Enterprise Market with an issue price of 16.5 yuan and a market capitalization of 500.44 million yuan, with an oversubscription multiple of 5594.96 [22]. 3. Recent IPO Calendar - The report outlines the IPO calendar, indicating that as of April 25, 2025, there are several stocks pending inquiry and one stock awaiting subscription, with a total expected fundraising of 3.557 billion yuan [26][27]. - The report also lists the recent IPOs that occurred from April 21 to April 25, 2025, including C Tian You Wei, C Jiang Shun Ke, and C Zhong Jie [29]. 4. Recent IPO Market Performance - The report notes that most newly listed stocks in the past month have seen first-day price fluctuations between 100% and 450%, with the highest increases recorded by Zhejiang Huayuan at 451.36% [30][31]. - The report indicates that the majority of new stocks have fundraising amounts between 0-1 billion yuan, with C Tian You Wei leading at 3.74 billion yuan [31]. 5. Theoretical IPO Return Estimation - The report provides a theoretical estimation of IPO returns based on different account sizes, showing that A-class accounts with 200 million have a return rate of 5.00% since 2024 and 1.27% since 2025 [40][44]. - The report also details the monthly returns for different account sizes, indicating a trend of decreasing returns for larger accounts [41][43].