2025年8月打新策略环境与收益回顾 中信期货研究所 权益及期权策略组 研究员 康遵禹 从业资格号:F03090802 投资咨询号: Z0016853 要点: 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2012】669号 2025年9月3日 新股上市流通市值月度统计(亿元) ■主板 科创板 ■创业板 网网下申购报价数 询价机构数量(中位数) 0.08 г 600 L 1、打新规则:港交所启动大规模IPO机制改革。2025年8月4日,港股为平衡机构与散户的新股分配比例,做出了多项改革内 容,并正式实施,主要包括:1）要求发行人至少安排40%的新股配售给机构投资者,机构投资者可通过40%的建簿配售份额深 度参与新股定价;2)散户获配比率下降,以超额认购100倍新股为例,散户获配比例降至35%;3)根据市值分档设定初始公众 持股比例,其中H股初始公众持股比例从15%下降至10%;4）发行人上市至少25%为自由流通股,防止筹码过度集中。 2、市场环境:短期新股数量较少,收益稀薄。8月共计有三支新股在主板和双创板上市,总计市值不到100亿元。打新中签 率和网下机构申报数量相比今年上半年明显减少，主要是因为两只涉及创业板,询价机构数 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong IPO market is experiencing a revival in 2025, driven by both internal and external factors, with significant increases in fundraising and improved investor sentiment [2][5]. Group 1: IPO Market Performance - As of August 11, 2025, the IPO fundraising amount reached HKD 129.2 billion, representing a 147% increase compared to the total for 2024, with an average fundraising size of HKD 2.4 billion, the highest since 2022 [2]. - The first-day loss rate for new listings is at its lowest since 2018, at 28%, with average first-day returns of 15.1% and median returns of 3.4% [2]. - The revival of the IPO market is attributed to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's continuous optimization of listing regulations, encouragement from mainland China for companies to list in Hong Kong, tightening of financing in A-shares, and increased regulatory scrutiny of Chinese concept stocks in the U.S. [2]. Group 2: IPO Process and Pricing - The Hong Kong IPO process consists of eight key steps, including hiring sponsors, preparing for listing, submitting applications, and pricing, with a market-oriented pricing mechanism influenced by institutional investors [3]. - Public investor enthusiasm plays a crucial role in the allocation of shares through the mechanism of price adjustment [3]. Group 3: Post-Listing Performance - Analysis of IPO data from 2018 to August 11, 2024, shows that absolute and relative returns for newly listed companies have weakened, with median absolute returns of 0.8%, 0.0%, -1.6%, and -23.5% for the first day, first week, first month, and one year, respectively [3]. - Small-cap stocks (market cap below HKD 1 billion) perform better on the first day but see significant declines in subsequent returns, while large-cap stocks (market cap above HKD 1 billion) exhibit more stable prices but experience larger corrections starting from the sixth month due to lock-up expirations [3][4]. Group 4: Investor Sentiment and Strategies - For small-cap stocks, early profit-taking is recommended due to their tendency to decline rapidly after initial gains, with public investor sentiment being a key factor influencing post-listing performance [4]. - For large-cap stocks, the median absolute return remains around zero in the first three months, suggesting a need for careful selection of projects, with high public sentiment and new economy sectors showing better performance [4]. Group 5: Role of Cornerstone Investors - Cornerstone investors should focus on in-depth research of individual stocks and be aware of the negative impacts of lock-up expirations, as data indicates that non-new economy sectors outperform new economy sectors in excess returns after seven months [5]. - The presence of cornerstone investors does not significantly influence the long-term excess returns of IPO projects, indicating a low success rate and high risk-reward ratio for long-term investments in the Hong Kong IPO market [5].

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3]

中信期货 CITIC Futures 研究员 康遵禹 从业资格号:F03090802 2025年6月打新策略环境与收益回顾 中信期货研究所 权益及期权策略组 投资咨询号:Z0016853 要点: 1、打新规则:科创板打新制度放宽,打新机会有望增多。6月18日,证监会发布《关于在科创板设置科创成长层增强制度包 容性适应性的意见》,支持优质未盈利企业在科创板上市成为焦点。该政策主要扩大了科创板上市第五套标准适用范围,准许 未盈利企业上市范围从生物医药领域,扩容至人工智能、商业航天、低空经济等更多前沿科技领域企业。截止7月初，已有部 分未盈利企业申请在科创板上市,该政策或有望激励更多的科技企业选择在科创板上市,增加机构网下打新的机会。 2、市场环境：6月机构参与询价数量边际回升，活跃度高于上半年平均水平。本月6支新股中共计3支属于TMT板块、2支属 于新能源和汽车板块、科技与电新概念使相关新服获机构关注度较高。此外，6月20日光大理财通过混合类产品入围信通电子 网下配售,标志着理财资金正式进入打新市场。伴随IPO政策持续转松,预计网下打新市场将吸引更多机构投资者参与,但这 也可能使中签率保持在偏低的状态。 2、打新 ...