证券研究报告 | 2025年08月25日 许继电气（000400.SZ） 优于大市 直流输电系统集中交付，海外业务持续突破 上半年业绩稳健增长，盈利能力持续提升。2025年上半年公司实现营收64.47 亿元，同比-5.68%；归母净利润 6.34 亿元，同比+0.96%。上半年公司毛利 率 23.75%，同比+2.85pct.；净利率 11.01%，同比+0.43pct.。 二季度收入环比大增，业绩同比小幅增长。2025 年第二季度实现营收 40.99 亿元，同比+1.81%，环比+74.56%；归母净利润 4.26 亿元，同比+9.12%，环 比+105.38%。2025 年第二季度毛利率 23.91%，同比+1.17pct.，环比 +0.44pct.；净利率 11.55%，同比+0.14pct.，环比+1.48pct.。 直流输电收入高增，其他主要业务收入略有下降。上半年公司智能变配电系 统实现营收 18.47 亿元，同比-13.01%，毛利率 26.93%，同比+3.81pct.；智 能电表实现营收 15.28 亿元，同比-4.44%，毛利率 24.06%，同比-3.50pct.； 直流输电系统实现营收 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 met market expectations, with revenue of 11.33 billion and a year-on-year increase of 8.9%, while net profit attributable to shareholders reached 600 million, up 30.1% year-on-year [9] - The growth foundation is built on UHV (Ultra High Voltage) and power transmission and transformation, with transformer profitability continuously improving [9] - The company is actively expanding its overseas market, achieving a 64% year-on-year increase in overseas revenue to 2.171 billion [9] - High R&D investment is maintained, with inventory growth attributed to a backlog of finished products [9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 21.204 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 13.02% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is estimated at 897.17 million, reflecting a 44.92% increase year-on-year [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 is expected to be 0.18 yuan per share [1] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue is forecasted to grow to 24.476 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 9.85% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to reach 1.497 billion in 2025, representing a 42.04% increase year-on-year [1] - The P/E ratio for 2025 is estimated at 22.97 [1] Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company has a solid order backlog in the UHV sector, with multiple projects expected to start bidding in the second half of the year [9] - The company is also focusing on the distribution network and international expansion as key growth drivers [9] - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was reported at 21.6%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year [9]

Core Viewpoint - China XD Electric (601179.SH) continues to operate steadily, benefiting from increased product sales, with a reported revenue of 11.301 billion yuan and a net profit of 598 million yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting year-on-year growth of 9.23% and 30.08% respectively [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 11.301 billion yuan, a 9.23% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 598 million yuan, marking a 30.08% increase [1][2] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 241 million yuan, accounting for 40.27% of its net profit, bringing total dividends since its listing to 4.467 billion yuan [1][3] - As of June 30, 2025, the company's asset-liability ratio stood at 46.47%, with cash reserves of 10.355 billion yuan, providing a strong backing for operational development [1][6] Market Position and Growth - China XD Electric specializes in the research, design, manufacturing, and sales of power transmission and distribution equipment, with a comprehensive product range including high-voltage switches, transformers, and reactors [2][4] - The company has seen a continuous increase in its gross profit margin, rising from 16.42% in 2022 to 21.61% in the first half of 2025 [3] - The company has secured significant contracts, including three major projects with the State Grid totaling approximately 4.474 billion yuan, which represents about 20.2% of its 2024 revenue [3] Research and Development - China XD Electric has invested a total of 1.967 billion yuan in R&D over the past two and a half years, with R&D expenses increasing by 21.23%, 11.25%, and 16.59% year-on-year for 2023, 2024, and the first half of 2025 respectively [5] - The company has established a strong R&D and manufacturing capability, covering the entire industrial chain of power transmission and distribution equipment [5] Regional Performance - In the first half of 2025, domestic revenue accounted for 80.79% of total revenue, while international revenue made up 19.21%, with respective gross profit margins of 23.22% and 14.84% [6]

Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 6.447 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with an increasing proportion of equipment-related income [2] - Gross margin improved to 23.75%, up by 2.85 percentage points year-on-year and 0.44 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [2] - Net cash flow from operating activities reached 1.12 billion yuan, a significant increase of 237.08% year-on-year, reflecting improved efficiency in managing receivables [3] Group 2: Business Segment Performance - The direct current transmission system segment saw a revenue increase of approximately 313 million yuan, primarily due to the delivery of the Hami-Chongqing converter and the Ningxia-Hunan control protection system [4] - The smart distribution and smart medium-voltage equipment segments experienced a decline in revenue, attributed to order delivery timing and a drop in first-quarter income, although gross margins improved by 3.81 and 3.34 percentage points respectively [4] - The new energy and system integration segment's revenue decreased by 304 million yuan, as the company focused on high-quality equipment orders, reducing low-margin total package business [4] Group 3: Market Developments - The company successfully won bids for key projects, including the Lingbao renovation project and various railway projects, indicating strong market presence [5] - The company maintained a leading position in the State Grid's electric meter procurement and saw significant growth in orders from the Southern Grid [5] - Internationally, products such as mobile substations and charging stations entered markets in Saudi Arabia, Brazil, and Spain, showcasing the company's global expansion efforts [5] Group 4: Future Outlook and Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively tracking high-voltage projects, including the Ningxia-Hunan and Hami-Chongqing projects, with plans to follow up on additional major projects in the future [6] - The company aims to expand its international market presence in regions such as South America, Southeast Asia, and Europe, focusing on products like electric meters and transformers [6] - The company plans to enhance product competitiveness through improved technology, quality, and cost control in response to regional procurement trends [6]

Summary of High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) Conference Call Industry Overview - The HVDC industry is entering a new construction cycle with the approval of two major projects: the Tibet to Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao and the Inner Mongolia to Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei lines, with a target of four approvals for the year 2025 [1][3] - Six ongoing DC projects are nearing completion, with two expected to be operational by mid to late 2026, providing support for future HVDC construction [1][5] Key Points and Arguments - **Upcoming Projects**: Several projects are expected to enter the approval phase in the second half of 2025, including the Datarat to Inner Mongolia and Zhejiang HVDC ring network [6] - **Market Demand**: The total bidding amount for HVDC equipment in the first half of 2025 was 2.48 billion yuan, with an anticipated total of 71 billion yuan in bids for the second half, including approximately 16.6 billion yuan for converter valves [7] - **Unstarted Projects**: There are numerous unstarted projects from the 14th Five-Year Plan, which are expected to create significant demand in the early stages of the 15th Five-Year Plan [8] - **Back-to-Back Projects**: Six back-to-back DC projects have been bid on, with a total capacity of approximately 3GW, indicating a positive trend for DC project development [4][9] Additional Important Content - **Market Share**: As of 2023, major players in the HVDC equipment market include China XD Group with a 26% share in converter transformers, and State Grid Corporation with nearly 50% in converter valve systems [12] - **Future Expectations**: The overall sentiment for the second half of 2025 is optimistic, with expectations of improved stock performance for companies involved in HVDC projects, as they are likely to benefit from the release of new orders [13]

Summary of the Mêdog Hydropower Station Conference Industry Overview - The Mêdog Hydropower Station project is a significant infrastructure initiative in the hydropower sector, with a total investment of approximately 2 trillion yuan, which is six times that of the Three Gorges Project, but with only three times its power generation capacity [1][5]. Key Points and Arguments Project Investment and Capacity - The core power generation capacity of the Mêdog Hydropower Station is designed to be 49 million kilowatts, utilizing a 2,200-meter drop at the bend of the Yarlung Tsangpo River [3][5]. - The total investment is projected to be around 1.2 trillion yuan, with approximately 200 billion yuan allocated to address high-altitude equipment premiums and 200 billion yuan for international dispute conflicts [3][13]. - The investment recovery period is estimated to be 17 years, with an operational lifespan of 60 to 80 years [5]. Construction Timeline and Phases - The project will be executed in phases, with preliminary surveys and foundational construction from 2025 to 2027, followed by major construction from 2028 to 2035 [1][6]. - Key milestones include the start of tunnel construction in 2026, with 40% of annual funding directed towards this, and the first unit's pre-installation tendering expected between late 2028 and early 2029 [1][9]. Equipment and Technology - The project will require various types of equipment, including small shield machines (7-8 meters) for transportation tunnels and larger shield machines (around 15 meters) for the main construction phase [10][14]. - The demand for shield machines is significant, with an estimated procurement of 21-24 units, primarily from China Railway Construction Corporation [10][24]. Environmental and Ecological Considerations - The project includes ecological compensation measures and fish protection initiatives, with a focus on sustainable development [6][9]. - The local power consumption is expected to absorb about 20%-25% of the generated electricity, with the remainder being transmitted to major economic zones such as the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and the Yangtze River Delta [41]. Challenges and Solutions - High-altitude construction presents unique challenges, including the need for equipment that can withstand extreme conditions, which has delayed the project’s initiation until recent technological advancements were made [2][30]. - The project has a comprehensive procurement strategy to ensure that over 92% of the equipment is sourced domestically, minimizing political and economic risks associated with foreign procurement [31]. Additional Important Information - The project will also involve significant geological exploration, with major contracts awarded to China National Petroleum Corporation and Sinopec for core drilling, totaling a budget of approximately 4.5 billion yuan [17]. - The construction will include various auxiliary facilities, such as a 600 MW regulating station and small photovoltaic and pumped storage facilities, bringing the total capacity to 60 million kilowatts [4][3]. - The project is expected to create a substantial number of jobs and stimulate local economies during its construction and operational phases [5][41]. This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of the Mêdog Hydropower Station project, highlighting its scale, investment, construction phases, technological requirements, and environmental considerations.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the photovoltaic industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to significantly enhance electricity supply and contribute to carbon neutrality goals. The project will utilize abundant hydropower resources and promote the development of solar and wind energy in the surrounding areas [3]. - The project has an installed capacity of nearly 70 million kilowatts and an annual power generation capacity of 300 billion kilowatt-hours, which can meet the annual electricity needs of 300 million people and replace 90 million tons of standard coal, reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 300 million tons [3]. - The project is anticipated to strengthen the synergy between computing and electricity, benefiting the AIDC computing power industry chain [3]. Summary by Sections Project Overview - The Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project involves the construction of five cascade power stations and is expected to take about 10 years to complete, with production anticipated to start after 2035 [3]. - The project will enhance the utilization of "West-to-East Power Transmission" and support the national strategy of "East Data West Calculation" [3]. Investment Insights - The total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan may be adjusted upwards, with the investment in power transmission and transformation estimated to reach between 189 billion to 315 billion yuan [3]. - The report suggests that the actual investment may exceed initial estimates due to construction difficulties and uncertainties related to interest rates [3]. Beneficiaries in the Industry - The hydropower equipment supply chain is expected to benefit, with key players including Dongfang Electric, Shanghai Electric, and Harbin Electric, among others [3]. - The report highlights the stable demand for high-voltage transmission equipment and identifies major suppliers such as State Grid NARI, China XD Electric, and others as potential beneficiaries [3]. - The GIL (Gas Insulated Transmission Line) segment is entering a long-term growth cycle, with companies like China XD Electric and Pinggao Electric expected to benefit from the Yarlung Zangbo project [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the hydropower equipment and high-voltage equipment supply chains, specifically mentioning companies like Dongfang Electric, Shanghai Electric, and State Grid NARI [3]. - It also suggests monitoring the AIDC industry chain, including companies like Megmeet and Jinpan Technology [3].

Group 1 - The approval of the two ultra-high voltage (UHV) projects, namely the ±800 kV UHV DC transmission project from Southeast Tibet to the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and the ±800 kV UHV DC transmission project from Inner Mongolia to Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, signifies a strong momentum for the continuous advancement of UHV construction in China [1][2][3] - The Southeast Tibet to Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao project has a rated transmission capacity of 10 million kW and a dynamic investment of 53.168 billion yuan, highlighting its significant role in China's energy strategy [1] - The Inner Mongolia to Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei project has a rated transmission capacity of 8 million kW and a dynamic investment of 17.178 billion yuan, which will enhance power supply security in Hebei province and support the clean energy consumption increase [2] Group 2 - The continuous advancement of UHV construction is crucial for addressing the imbalance between energy resource distribution in western regions and power demand in eastern coastal areas, with UHV technology being a core solution for the "West-to-East Power Transmission" initiative [3] - The State Grid Corporation of China plans to invest over 650 billion yuan in 2025, while the Southern Power Grid will invest 175 billion yuan, indicating a significant focus on UHV projects [3] - The demand for key equipment such as transformers, switches, and cables is expected to surge, leading to rapid development in the upstream and downstream sectors of the industry [3][4] Group 3 - Companies like T时代电气 and 中国西电 are positioned to benefit from the growing demand for power semiconductor devices and have secured significant contracts for UHV projects, with total winning bids amounting to 1.443 billion yuan [4] - 平高电气 has maintained a leading market share in UHV projects and reported record-high single-bid amounts, indicating strong order backlogs [4] - Analysts believe that UHV equipment manufacturers with stable or increasing bidding shares will see significant performance support as a result of the ongoing UHV project launches and tenders [4]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview: UHV (Ultra High Voltage) Sector Key Points - The UHV sector has experienced a valuation drop to approximately 14-15 times, down from a peak of 30 times, significantly enhancing investment attractiveness [1][3][9] - Two major DC lines have been approved in 2025, with expectations for more approvals, including five DC lines, three AC lines, and several expansion and back-to-back projects, indicating a recovery in the industry [1][5] - The investment demand for UHV-related core equipment is projected to exceed 50 billion yuan in 2025, a notable increase from 30-40 billion yuan in the previous year, driven by the State Grid's planning during the 14th Five-Year Plan [1][6] Company Performance and Market Dynamics - Key companies such as XJ Electric, China XD Electric, and State Grid NARI have shown strong performance in the UHV sector, with XJ Electric benefiting significantly from its share in the investment of UHV lines [1][9][12] - China XD Electric has maintained a leading market share in the UHV equipment sector, with continuous improvement in profitability and successful breakthroughs in industrial clients [12][14] - NARI has excelled in UHV converter valves and related products, with a notable increase in market share and a stable growth rate in automation and industrial control sectors [15][16] Future Expectations - The UHV construction intensity is expected to maintain strong growth, with an anticipated addition of 4-5 DC lines and 2-3 AC lines annually during the 15th Five-Year Plan [8][17] - The current valuation of core companies in the UHV sector has decreased to around 15 times, making it an attractive investment opportunity compared to the previous year's high of 30 times [9][17] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies for investment focus include: - **XJ Electric**: Significant earnings elasticity in UHV construction, with a market share of 20-30% in valve and control protection equipment [9][13] - **Pinggao Group**: Strong performance in AC UHV products and reduced international business drag [11][13] - **China XD Electric**: Benefiting from domestic market demand and improved profitability [12][13] Additional Insights - The UHV sector is entering a period of intensive approvals for new lines, which is expected to enhance the performance of related companies [5][4] - The overall market structure remains stable, with leading companies like NARI, XJ Electric, and China XD Electric dominating the converter valve market [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the following companies: Guodian NARI (国电南瑞), Pinggao Electric (平高电气), China XD Electric (中国西电), and XJ Electric (许继电气) [8][9]. Core Insights - The approval of the Southeast Tibet to Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao ultra-high voltage (UHV) transmission line marks an upward cycle for the UHV sector, with an expected investment of 53.168 billion yuan and a total transmission capacity of 10GW [1]. - The "Three North" photovoltaic desertification control plan aims to add 253GW of solar capacity by 2030, indicating sustained growth in renewable energy infrastructure [2]. - The acceleration of UHV project construction is evident, with multiple projects expected to be operational within the year, enhancing the overall market dynamics [3]. - The UHV market exhibits high barriers to entry and profitability, with significant value in components such as converters and transformers, indicating a concentrated competitive landscape [4]. Summary by Sections UHV Projects and Approvals - The National Development and Reform Commission approved the Southeast Tibet to Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao UHV project, with a total length of 2681.3 kilometers and dynamic investment of 53.168 billion yuan [1]. - It is anticipated that 5-6 additional UHV direct current lines will be approved in 2025, with key equipment suppliers likely to benefit significantly from this trend [1]. Photovoltaic Development - The "Three North" photovoltaic desertification control plan has been approved, targeting the addition of 253GW of solar capacity by 2030 and the reclamation of 10.1 million acres of desertified land [2]. - The ongoing construction of large-scale wind and solar bases in desert areas is expected to drive long-term demand for UHV transmission [2]. Market Dynamics and Company Performance - The UHV market is characterized by high profit margins and a limited number of participants, with significant revenue potential for core equipment manufacturers [4]. - Guodian NARI is projected to generate net profits of 1.15-1.64 billion yuan from each UHV project, while Pinggao Electric and China XD Electric are also expected to see substantial profit increases due to the anticipated surge in UHV orders [5]. - The report highlights the strong growth potential for these companies, with expected net profit growth rates of 23.8% CAGR from 2025 to 2027 for XJ Electric [10].