大摩闭门会：春节消费-分化起点，还是整体拐点？260227_导读 全文摘要 春节假期后的消费市场分析揭示了积极的零售餐饮数据，同比增长5.7%，受益于假期延长、暖冬及消费意愿恢 复。尽管如此，市场恢复仍显缓慢，体现出理性消费与价格敏感性。讨论覆盖了多个子板块，如线下服务、旅 行、酒店、餐饮、酒类及海外增长机会，特别强调了海南免税、餐饮、黄金珠宝、酒店行业的发展趋势与投资机 遇。 大摩闭门会：春节消费-分化起点，还是整体拐点？260227_导读 2026年03月01日 00:31 关键词 消费 春节 餐饮 酒店 旅游 白酒 乳制品 啤酒 化妆品 体育用品 黄金珠宝 海南免税 海底捞 通缩 地产 估值 盈利 超额 回报 投资策略 出海 全文摘要 春节假期后的消费市场分析揭示了积极的零售餐饮数据，同比增长5.7%，受益于假期延长、暖冬及消费意愿恢 复。尽管如此，市场恢复仍显缓慢，体现出理性消费与价格敏感性。讨论覆盖了多个子板块，如线下服务、旅 行、酒店、餐饮、酒类及海外增长机会，特别强调了海南免税、餐饮、黄金珠宝、酒店行业的发展趋势与投资机 遇。此外，体育用品、互联网（电商、即时零售、以旧换新）以及北美市场服装、电 ...

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group's stock price increased by 4.96%, currently at HKD 581.50, with a trading volume of HKD 551 million [1] Group 1: Industry Insights - The Ministry of Transport of China reported that on December 31, 2025, the inter-regional passenger flow reached 20.7763 million trips, a month-on-month increase of 33.7% and a year-on-year increase of 25.4% [1] - On January 1, 2026, the expected inter-regional passenger flow is projected to be 20.813 million trips, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 21% [1] Group 2: Company Performance - Guosen Securities forecasts that tourism demand will continue to be robust, with Ctrip benefiting from a comprehensive product supply and high-quality service, maintaining a strong domestic market position and deep competitive moat [1] - Ctrip's market share is steadily increasing, and profit margins are expected to gradually improve [1] - The company is capitalizing on the opportunity for international expansion and the benefits of inbound policy changes, maintaining a rapid growth strategy that has been validated in multiple regions, driving overall revenue growth of over 15% [1] - Ctrip's significant share buyback plan and regular dividend arrangements reflect a positive stance on shareholder returns [1]

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group's stock price increased by approximately 5%, reaching 578 HKD, driven by positive travel demand forecasts and strong financial performance indicators [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Ctrip Group-S (09961) saw a stock price increase of 4.33% with a trading volume of 424 million HKD [1] - The overall cross-regional personnel flow in China is projected to reach 20,776.3 million trips by December 31, 2025, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 33.7% and a year-on-year growth of 25.4% [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - The tourism demand is expected to continue to be robust, with Ctrip benefiting from a strong product offering and quality service [1] - Ctrip's domestic market share is steadily increasing, supported by a solid competitive advantage, with profit margins anticipated to gradually improve [1] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Ctrip is positioned to capitalize on the international expansion opportunities and favorable inbound policies, maintaining a rapid growth strategy focused on scale [1] - The company has implemented a significant share buyback plan and regular dividend arrangements, indicating a proactive stance on shareholder returns [1]

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip's partnership with the Cambodian National Tourism Board has sparked a "trust crisis" among users due to concerns over privacy and security, leading to account cancellations and uninstalls [2][3] Group 1: Partnership Details - Ctrip signed a marketing cooperation agreement with the Cambodian National Tourism Board, which is set to run from September 1, 2025, to March 31, 2026 [3] - The agreement was intended to launch advertising content following Cambodia's visa exemption policy for Chinese citizens, effective from June 15 to October 15, 2026 [2] Group 2: User Concerns and Company Response - Following safety alerts from the Chinese Embassy in Cambodia, Ctrip promptly suspended the planned advertising actions, clarifying that the partnership had not yet commenced [2][3] - Ctrip emphasized that the agreement does not involve any data cooperation, ensuring that there is no risk of user privacy information being leaked [3]