Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market, represented by Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (00388), is currently experiencing a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish sentiments, with technical indicators sending mixed signals [1] - As of 13:15, the stock price is at HKD 435.8, down 1.49%, oscillating near the 10-day moving average of HKD 446.36 and the 30-day moving average of HKD 444.37, while remaining above the 60-day moving average of HKD 435.69 [1] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 46, indicating a potential oversold condition, while the MACD and Ichimoku indicators suggest a bearish trend, indicating an imminent decision on short-term direction [1] Technical Analysis - Key support levels are identified between HKD 418 and HKD 428, while resistance levels are at HKD 450 and a stronger resistance at HKD 466 [1] - Despite a modest 5.5% fluctuation over five days, the overall strength of technical indicators reaches an 8-level buy signal, suggesting a potential breakout momentum [1] - The narrowing Bollinger Bands indicate that the market is in a state of consolidation, poised for a breakout [1] Derivative Market Performance - Recent performance in the warrants market shows significant gains, with the recommended Morgan Stanley bear certificate (60987) rising 27% within two days despite a 2.07% drop in the underlying stock [3] - The Bank of China put option (19860) also recorded an 11% increase during the same period, highlighting the potential for significant returns from bearish products during market volatility [3] Investment Strategies - For bullish positions, UBS call options (16698) offer a high leverage of 17.6 times, while Societe Generale call options (16900) provide even higher leverage at 18 times, both with an exercise price set at HKD 484.08 [6] - Bearish strategies can focus on Bank of China put options (19860) and UBS put options (19854), both maintaining low implied volatility and offering leverage above 7 times [8] - Morgan Stanley bear certificate (66719) has a redemption price of HKD 473, noted for its low premium and high actual leverage, while UBS bear certificate (60541) strikes a good balance between leverage and premium [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has seen stable trading volumes, with continued inflows from southbound funds, providing indirect support to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) business, although short-term price adjustments are influenced by market sentiment [1] Technical Analysis - The overall technical indicators for HKEX signal a "buy" with a strength of 7, but multiple moving averages indicate a "sell" signal, suggesting potential adjustment pressure in the medium to long term [1] - Various oscillation indicators are neutral, with the RSI at 56, indicating limited short-term market divergence and potential for a rebound [1] - The system assesses a 55% probability of price increase, with a recent volatility of 3.7% over the past five days, indicating moderate speculative opportunities [1] Support and Resistance Levels - The first support level for HKEX is at 434 HKD, and the second support level is at 426 HKD, which are critical defensive levels; a drop below these could lead to further declines [4] - Resistance levels are at 459 HKD, with a higher resistance at 474 HKD; the current stock price is at 449.6 HKD, positioned between support and resistance [4] Product Performance - On August 28, 2025, HKEX saw a 0.98% increase two days later, with recommended products like the Societe Generale call warrant (16781) rising by 9%, HSBC bull certificate (56882) and UBS bull certificate (58003) both increasing by 10%, and UBS call warrant (16698) rising by 8%, demonstrating the leverage effect of warrants and bull/bear certificates [4] Investment Products - For those optimistic about HKEX breaking the 459 HKD resistance, the Societe Generale call warrant (16781) is notable with a leverage of 13 times and an exercise price of 484.08 HKD, featuring low premium and implied volatility [7] - The UBS call warrant (16698) also offers a leverage of 12.5 times, suitable for conservative investors [7] - For those anticipating continued price declines, the HSBC put warrant (19847) is a viable option with a leverage of 7 times and an exercise price of 387.8 HKD, offering low premium and implied volatility [7] - The Bank of China put warrant (19860) also presents a leverage of 6.5 times, with a relatively low premium, effective for capturing price declines [7] Bull and Bear Certificates - For bullish investors, the UBS bull certificate (58003) has the lowest premium and an actual leverage of 10.4 times, with a redemption price of 410 HKD, indicating lower risk [10] - The JPMorgan bull certificate (63465) is also worth considering, with an actual leverage of 11.3 times and a redemption price of 416 HKD, offering good value [10] - For bearish investors, the JPMorgan bear certificate (69320) has high actual leverage of 7.9 times and a redemption price of 510 HKD, effectively capturing price declines [10] - The UBS bear certificate (69819) is also favorable, with a low premium and an actual leverage of 7.8 times, suitable for those confident in short-term corrections [10]