支持與阻力位分析揭示，港交所當前的主要支持位在441元，次要支持位於437元，這兩道防線將成為短線回落時的重要緩衝。上行方面，470元構成首道關 鍵阻力，突破後下一目標將指向476元。值得注意的是，港交所近五日振幅達4.4%，相對溫和的波動特性為投資者提供了較清晰的技術參考。在這樣的市場 環境中，您通常如何設定止損與獲利目標？ 港交所股價正處於技術突破的關鍵時刻，從最新數據觀察，股價在449.6元附近整固，短期均線MA10與中期均線MA30分別位於443.98元及444.37元，形成緊密交織的 技術格局。這種均線排列顯示市場正在積蓄能量，而MA60的440.02元則為股價提供穩健的基礎支撐。當前價位在441元至470元的區間內震盪，多空雙方在這個技術敏 感地帶展開激烈爭奪。 回顾昨日专栏【港股Podcast】港交所 (00388.HK)：已經到年內高位了，還有多少上升空間？窩輪市場上，有投資者在昨日部署了認購證，行使 價530.5元 Simon:走勢比較醒目，盤中最高見460元。技術買賣信號為"買入"。數據系統分析的471元是目前第一個阻力位。有機會升穿周線圖的保力加通道 頂部。如果順利突破則上試477元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong banking sector, particularly Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), has shown a strong upward trend, with its stock price rising from HKD 5.66 on September 2 to a peak of HKD 6.03, nearing the upper Bollinger Band of HKD 6.04 [1] Technical Analysis - The RSI reading for ICBC is at 58, indicating a healthy bullish zone, while moving averages show mixed signals with MA10 at HKD 5.82, MA30 at HKD 5.94, and MA60 at HKD 6.06, suggesting a search for a clear short-term direction [1] - Current support levels are at HKD 5.79 and HKD 5.59, with resistance at HKD 6.19; a breakthrough could target HKD 6.39 [3] - The stock's volatility is relatively low, with a 5-day amplitude of 5.5%, making it suitable for conservative investors [3] Derivative Products Performance - On September 9, when ICBC's stock rose by 1.70%, related derivative products performed well, with Citibank's call option (16438) and UBS's call option (15583) recording gains of 27%, while Societe Generale's bull certificate (57199) and UBS's bull certificate (65682) achieved returns of 19% and 13% respectively [3] - Investors bullish on the market are recommended to consider Citibank's call option (16438) due to its reasonable strike price of HKD 6.6 and a leverage of 19.7 times, which is the highest among similar products [6] - UBS's call option (15583) offers a strike price of HKD 6.67 with a leverage of 14.4 times, while the Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation's call option (16703) provides a strike price of HKD 7.01 with a leverage of 12.9 times, both presenting good risk-reward ratios [6] Investment Strategy - For bearish investors, JPMorgan's put option (18332) with a strike price of HKD 5.22 offers a leverage of 12 times, making it a strong tool for short positions [6] - In terms of bull and bear certificates, JPMorgan's bull certificate (68394) has a redemption price of HKD 5, providing a safe distance from the current price, while UBS's bull certificate (65682) also has a redemption price of HKD 5, offering a leverage of 6.2 times [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has seen stable trading volumes, with continued inflows from southbound funds, providing indirect support to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) business, although short-term price adjustments are influenced by market sentiment [1] Technical Analysis - The overall technical indicators for HKEX signal a "buy" with a strength of 7, but multiple moving averages indicate a "sell" signal, suggesting potential adjustment pressure in the medium to long term [1] - Various oscillation indicators are neutral, with the RSI at 56, indicating limited short-term market divergence and potential for a rebound [1] - The system assesses a 55% probability of price increase, with a recent volatility of 3.7% over the past five days, indicating moderate speculative opportunities [1] Support and Resistance Levels - The first support level for HKEX is at 434 HKD, and the second support level is at 426 HKD, which are critical defensive levels; a drop below these could lead to further declines [4] - Resistance levels are at 459 HKD, with a higher resistance at 474 HKD; the current stock price is at 449.6 HKD, positioned between support and resistance [4] Product Performance - On August 28, 2025, HKEX saw a 0.98% increase two days later, with recommended products like the Societe Generale call warrant (16781) rising by 9%, HSBC bull certificate (56882) and UBS bull certificate (58003) both increasing by 10%, and UBS call warrant (16698) rising by 8%, demonstrating the leverage effect of warrants and bull/bear certificates [4] Investment Products - For those optimistic about HKEX breaking the 459 HKD resistance, the Societe Generale call warrant (16781) is notable with a leverage of 13 times and an exercise price of 484.08 HKD, featuring low premium and implied volatility [7] - The UBS call warrant (16698) also offers a leverage of 12.5 times, suitable for conservative investors [7] - For those anticipating continued price declines, the HSBC put warrant (19847) is a viable option with a leverage of 7 times and an exercise price of 387.8 HKD, offering low premium and implied volatility [7] - The Bank of China put warrant (19860) also presents a leverage of 6.5 times, with a relatively low premium, effective for capturing price declines [7] Bull and Bear Certificates - For bullish investors, the UBS bull certificate (58003) has the lowest premium and an actual leverage of 10.4 times, with a redemption price of 410 HKD, indicating lower risk [10] - The JPMorgan bull certificate (63465) is also worth considering, with an actual leverage of 11.3 times and a redemption price of 416 HKD, offering good value [10] - For bearish investors, the JPMorgan bear certificate (69320) has high actual leverage of 7.9 times and a redemption price of 510 HKD, effectively capturing price declines [10] - The UBS bear certificate (69819) is also favorable, with a low premium and an actual leverage of 7.8 times, suitable for those confident in short-term corrections [10]

Core Viewpoint - Kuaishou's stock price has shown a significant adjustment, closing at 71.9 HKD with a daily drop of 2.84% and a trading volume of 4.42 billion HKD, indicating market pressure on technology stocks [1][3]. Technical Analysis - Technical indicators suggest a "neutral" signal with a strength of 11, while multiple moving averages indicate a "sell" signal, reflecting medium to long-term pressure [1]. - The RSI value is at 45, also in the neutral zone, indicating mixed market sentiment regarding short-term trends [1]. Support and Resistance Levels - Kuaishou's first support level is at 68.8 HKD and the second at 64.1 HKD, while the first resistance level is at 76 HKD and the higher resistance at 79.7 HKD [3]. - The stock has fallen below 72 HKD, positioning it closer to support levels, suggesting a relatively weak short-term trend [3]. Volatility and Trading Opportunities - The system assessment shows a 57% probability of price increase, with a recent 5-day volatility of 11.2%, indicating significant speculative opportunities [3]. - Historical performance indicates that Kuaishou's price movements can lead to substantial returns through leveraged products, as seen with various warrants and certificates [3]. Leveraged Products - For bullish sentiment, the highest leverage product is the Societe Generale call warrant (24996) with a leverage of 7.6 times and an exercise price of 72 HKD [5]. - For bearish sentiment, the Citigroup put warrant (19156) offers a leverage of 3.4 times with an exercise price of 68.33 HKD, while the Bank of China put warrant (19035) has a leverage of 2.9 times [5][6]. Additional Leveraged Products - HSBC bull certificate (59410) has the highest actual leverage at 7.7 times with a low premium and a redemption price of 66 HKD [8]. - The Societe Generale bear certificate (59208) offers a leverage of 6.1 times with a low premium and a redemption price of 83 HKD, suitable for bearish strategies [8].

Group 1 - Xiaomi's stock price is currently at 51.5 HKD, showing a 1.28% increase, but technical indicators suggest severe overselling with an RSI of 31, indicating a potential for a technical rebound [1] - The stock has fallen below all key moving averages, with MA10 at 52.85 HKD, MA30 at 55.98 HKD, and MA60 at 54.94 HKD, while other indicators like the Williams %R, Stochastic Oscillator, and CCI signal a buying opportunity [1] - Short-term support levels are identified at 48.8 HKD (Support 1) and 45.1 HKD (Support 2), with resistance levels at 53.5 HKD (Resistance 1) and 56 HKD (Resistance 2) [2] Group 2 - Recent derivative products have shown strong performance, with UBS bear certificate 59867 rising by 13% and JPMorgan bear certificate 55706 increasing by 12% during a period when Xiaomi's stock fell by 2.03% [4] - Recommended products for investors anticipating a rebound include Morgan Stanley call option 16583 with a strike price of 59.05 HKD and a leverage of 10.1 times, and Bank of China call option 29957 with a strike price of 59 HKD and a leverage of 9.9 times [7] - For bearish investors, Morgan Stanley put option 14322 and HSBC put option 14333, both with a strike price of 46.45 HKD and competitive premiums, are suggested [7][10]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi's stock price is currently experiencing volatility, with technical indicators suggesting a potential short-term rebound despite being in an oversold condition [1][12]. Technical Analysis - As of August 13, 2025, Xiaomi's stock price is at 52.5 HKD, showing a 1.55% increase. The RSI indicator is at 31, indicating an oversold condition. The stock price has fallen below the 10-day moving average (52.98 HKD) and the 30-day moving average (56.02 HKD), but is supported near the 60-day moving average (54.97 HKD) [1]. - The William and stochastic indicators are signaling a buy, contrasting with the MACD sell signal, suggesting a possible technical rebound in the short term [1]. - Key support levels are identified at 49.7 HKD and 46.4 HKD, while resistance levels are at 54.5 HKD and 57 HKD. A significant market volatility is indicated by an 8% fluctuation over five days [3]. Market Sentiment - Recent trading activity shows a capital inflow of 35 million HKD into Xiaomi's call options over the past five trading days, indicating investor interest in capitalizing on potential rebounds [1]. - The stock has seen fluctuations, with a recent low of 50.1 HKD and a previous high of over 60 HKD, reflecting investor concerns amid competitive pressures in the automotive sector [1]. Derivative Products Performance - Recent recommendations for derivative products have shown strong performance, with certain bull certificates experiencing gains of 30% and 24% in a short period, demonstrating the effectiveness of leveraged products in a rebound scenario [5]. - New recommendations for call options include HSBC's call option with a strike price of 60.65 HKD and a leverage of 7.2 times, suitable for speculative rebound plays [8]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to monitor the support level at 49.7 HKD closely. If this level holds, there may be opportunities for gradual accumulation [3]. - For bearish investors, options with lower strike prices and higher leverage are available, providing hedging opportunities against potential declines [8][10].

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is experiencing a neutral trend with no clear direction, showing 6 buy signals and 7 sell signals, with support at 24,417 and resistance at 25,300 [1] - Investors are divided, with some expecting the index to drop to 23,000 while others are looking for short-term rebounds [1] Group 2: BYD Electronics (00285.HK) - The stock price rebounded from a low of 39.04, closing at 38.68, with a buy signal indicating a short-term upward trend [3] - The first resistance level is at 40.8, with potential to reach 42.7 if broken, while support levels are at 35.3 and 34.3 [3] Group 3: Sunny Optical Technology (02382.HK) - The stock reached a high of 79.65 and closed at 77.05, with a buy signal indicating a positive short-term outlook [5] - Resistance levels are at 79.2 and 82.5, with a target of 80-90 still some distance away [5] Group 4: Bilibili-W (09626.HK) - The stock is showing a mixed trend, with a buy signal but resistance at 192.3, indicating potential challenges for upward movement [9] - Support levels are at 173.9 and 164.3, with a close proximity to the investor's put option strike price of 162.22 [9] Group 5: China Unicom (00762.HK) - The stock has shown strong performance, reaching a high of 10.17, with a buy signal and potential to challenge 13 [12] - Resistance levels are at 10.20 and 10.9, indicating that reaching 13 will require more time [12] Group 6: Alibaba-W (09988.HK) - The stock closed at 118.5 with a buy signal, indicating a sideways movement [15] - Investors are advised to consider short-term strategies, but should be cautious of time decay in options due to the stock's slow movement [15]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group's stock price is currently experiencing significant selling pressure, with a recent decline of 1.05% to HKD 56.8, indicating active market trading and a neutral signal without a clear direction [1][4]. Technical Analysis - The stock price is positioned slightly below the 10-day moving average of HKD 57.49, yet remains above the 30-day moving average of HKD 56.96 and the 60-day moving average of HKD 54.55, suggesting short-term adjustment pressure but no significant damage to the medium-term trend [1]. - Key support levels are identified at HKD 55.2 and HKD 53.6, while resistance levels are at HKD 58.4 and HKD 60.3. A rebound above HKD 57.5 could challenge the resistance at HKD 58.4, whereas a drop below HKD 55.2 may lead to a decline towards HKD 53.6 [4]. Market Sentiment - Technical indicators show mixed signals, with multiple moving averages issuing sell signals, but the overall market sentiment is not strongly bearish, as indicated by a sell strength of only 10. The RSI is at 53, indicating a neutral zone [4]. - Recent performance in the derivative market shows a significant increase in bearish instruments when Xiaomi's stock price fell by 2.82% on July 24, with notable gains in related put options [4]. Derivative Instruments - Investors looking for bullish positions may consider UBS call options (14816) with a strike price of HKD 61.05, offering a leverage of 5.9 times and low implied volatility. HSBC call options (14677) have the same strike price but offer slightly higher leverage at 6.1 times [7]. - For bearish investors, options such as Bank of China put options (14387) with a strike price of HKD 46.45 and leverage of 3.09 times, or UBS put options (17706) with a strike price of HKD 53.94 and leverage of 4.8 times, are available [7]. Investment Strategy - In the current market environment, a cautious approach is recommended, waiting for a clear breakout above HKD 57.5 or a drop below HKD 55.2 before making further moves. A range trading strategy could be beneficial, positioning call options near support levels and put options near resistance levels [13].

Core Viewpoint - The overall market sentiment for Hong Kong stocks is active, with Meituan showing potential for price increases due to new partnerships and impressive user growth in its delivery and flash purchase services [1][3]. Technical Analysis - Meituan's technical indicators suggest a "buy" signal with a strength of 15, indicating strong market optimism [1]. - Multiple moving averages indicate a "strong buy" signal, suggesting a positive medium to long-term trend [1]. - The RSI value is at 54, reflecting a neutral stance in the short term, indicating some market divergence regarding its future price movement [1]. Support and Resistance Levels - Meituan's first support level is at HKD 125.2, with a second support at HKD 121.8 [3]. - The first resistance level to watch is at HKD 137.2, with a higher resistance at HKD 144.6 [3]. - The current price is approaching the first resistance level, with a 55% probability of breaking through [3]. Recent Performance of Related Products - On July 21, 2025, Meituan's stock price increased by 1.83% two days later, positively impacting related products [3]. - UBS call warrants (58595) rose by 20%, HSBC call warrants (58836) by 14%, UBS call warrants (16391) by 13%, and HSBC call warrants (16986) by 10%, showcasing the leverage effect of these products [3]. Investment Products - For those optimistic about Meituan breaking the HKD 137.2 resistance, HSBC call warrant (16986) is recommended with a leverage of 6.9 times and a strike price of HKD 145.65 [5]. - UBS call warrant (16391) also has a leverage of 6.7 times and is worth considering [5]. - For those anticipating a short-term adjustment, UBS put warrant (16119) and Societe Generale put warrant (16674) are options, both with a leverage of 6.5 times [6]. Additional Investment Options - Investors bullish on Meituan may consider HSBC bull warrant (58836) with a leverage of 8.4 times and a recovery price of HKD 120.5 [8]. - UBS bull warrant (58595) offers a higher leverage of 9.7 times with a recovery price of HKD 123 [8]. - For bearish views, Societe Generale bear warrant (62919) has a leverage of 8.1 times, while JPMorgan bear warrant (64164) offers a leverage of 10.7 times [8].

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley reported that Xiaomi experienced over 30% year-on-year growth during the recent 618 shopping festival, with domestic business maintaining a strong growth momentum in Q2, accumulating a total payment amount of 35.5 billion RMB [1] - Goldman Sachs indicated that Xiaomi's electric vehicle factory phase two is preparing for production, with the YU 7 expected to be officially launched between late June and early July, which could be positive news for Xiaomi [1] - Technical analysis shows mixed signals; while overall signals indicate a buy with a strength of 15, some oscillators like the RSI are in overbought territory, suggesting potential short-term price adjustments [1][3] Technical Analysis - Xiaomi has two support levels at 52.3 and 54, with resistance levels at 58.4 and 60.4. The current price is 57.1, indicating a delicate balance between support and resistance [3] - The probability of an upward movement is 53%, with a 5-day volatility of 7.3%, reflecting market divergence in sentiment towards Xiaomi [3] Product Performance - Several products mentioned on June 19 performed well, with notable increases in warrants such as Citibank's warrant 13549 and HSBC's put warrant 14333, showing significant price appreciation within two days [3][5] Investment Opportunities - For those anticipating a rise in Xiaomi's stock price, Citibank's warrant 13549 offers the lowest premium with a leverage of 10.6 times and an exercise price of 61.5 [5] - For hedging against potential declines, HSBC's put warrant 14333 is recommended due to its low premium and implied volatility [6] Related Assets - Various warrants and certificates related to Xiaomi are available, including Citibank's warrant 13549 with a leverage of 10.6, and UBS's bear certificate 56421 with a leverage of 13.1 [7][8]