舜宇光學短線分析：震盪蓄勢，關鍵阻力前如何抉擇？ 近期，舜宇光學股價在關鍵技術位附近呈現震盪走勢。截至2026年1月5日，股價報67.5元，成交額2.82億元。股價在過去五個交易日內振幅達7.3%，顯示多 空雙方在當前價位展開激烈爭奪。結合技術指標與市場消息，該股正面臨短期方向的抉擇，而部分投資者已表達出看至70元，再挑戰90元的市場觀點。本文 將全面剖析其短線技術格局、市場多空觀點，並詳細解讀相關衍生產品策略。 技術分析：均線收斂待突破，指標信號分歧 從技術圖表觀察，舜宇光學正處於一個關鍵的收斂階段。股價目前圍繞短期均線系統波動，最新價略高於10天線（65.42元），但低於30天線（65.87元）與 60天線（71.12元）。這種均線纏繞的狀態，通常預示著市場正在等待新的催化劑來選擇突破方向。值得關注的是，多個擺動指標發出矛盾信號。RSI指標處 於47的中性區域，顯示暫無明顯的超買或超賣壓力。然而，威廉指標和隨機震盪指標均提示市場處於超買狀態，並發出賣出信號，這與CCI指標給出的買入 信號形成背離。這種技術指標的分歧，增加了短線走勢的不確定性，但也為區間操作提供了參考。一目均衡表與MACD指標均給出買入信號 ...

Simon：大家好，歡迎來到今天的港股直播。我們先從市場行情入手，看看今天的大盤走勢，再分析一些相關個股的具體表現，同時也瞭解一下投資者的不 同看法。 1、恆指：投資者表示牛證過夜，收回價25278點。也有看跌投資者認為一浪底一浪需調整了，保守見25400，開熊。 Simon：首先來說恆生指數，在昨天略有上漲的情況下，今天（3日）恆生指數掉頭下跌，以收盤價計算，大概在25760點左右。今天下跌的時候，一些做短 線的投資者會選擇買入牛證，搏取過夜反彈；但與此同時，也有投資者認為，目前指數走勢呈現一浪低過一浪的態勢，可能還會繼續調整，所以選擇做空， 這都是比較正常的情況。其實現在大盤並沒有明顯的方向，從技術信號來看，買入信號有7個，賣出信號也同樣是7個，各占一半。這也是為什麼投資者會有 不同的操作，有人買熊證，有人買牛證，雙方都有自己的依據。這裏給大家參考一下支持位和阻力位，尤其是短線投資者，可能會將這些點位作為牛熊證收 回價的依據。 短線來看，支持位大概在25400點左右，如果跌破25400點，接下來可能會到24700點。當前指數在25760點，距離24700點有1000點左右的空間，而25400點距 離當前點 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) is currently at a critical technical decision point, with its stock price hovering around 417.4 HKD, showing a slight increase of 0.24%. The price remains below all major moving averages, indicating a weak medium-term trend [1][3]. Technical Analysis - The stock price is currently below key moving averages: MA10 at 427.14 HKD, MA30 at 428.29 HKD, and MA60 at 436.31 HKD, suggesting a bearish outlook [1]. - Immediate support is at 409 HKD, with the next support level at 400 HKD. Resistance is initially at 428 HKD, with a potential challenge at 435 HKD if broken [3]. - The Bollinger Bands indicate that price volatility is narrowing, which typically suggests an impending significant directional breakout. The short-term upward probability for HKEX is estimated at 56%, with a low five-day volatility of 3.9% [3]. Derivative Products Strategy - For bullish investors, HSBC call option 29458 with a strike price of 500 HKD offers a leverage of 9.7 times, while Bank of China call option 22088, with a strike price of 500.5 HKD, provides a slightly lower leverage of 9.6 times but is the highest among similar products [6]. - For bearish investors, UBS put option 19854 and Bank of China put option 19860, both with a strike price of 387.8 HKD, offer high leverage of 10.5 and 10.7 times respectively, suitable for those expecting further declines [6]. Market Sentiment - Recent performance in the derivatives market shows that bearish products have performed well, with UBS bear certificate 67346 gaining 16% and JPMorgan bear certificate 68170 returning 15% during a mild downturn of 1.37% in HKEX [3]. - Technical indicators are showing a "strong buy" signal with a strength of 12, and the bull-bear strength indicator suggests "oversold, potential bottoming," indicating a possible accumulation of momentum for a rebound [17].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) is at a critical technical breakthrough moment, with the stock price consolidating around HKD 449.6, and short-term and medium-term moving averages (MA10 and MA30) positioned closely at HKD 443.98 and HKD 444.37 respectively, suggesting market energy accumulation [1][2] - The current price range is oscillating between HKD 441 and HKD 470, with both bulls and bears engaged in intense competition in this sensitive technical zone [1] - The analysis of support and resistance levels reveals that the primary support is at HKD 441, with a secondary support at HKD 437, while the key resistance level is at HKD 470, with the next target at HKD 476 [4] Group 2 - Technical indicators show a neutral RSI reading of 51, but several important indicators are beginning to emit positive signals, with a consensus "buy" rating from multiple indicators including stochastic, momentum, MACD, and Ichimoku [2] - The recent performance of structured products in the warrants market demonstrates significant leverage effects, with notable increases in prices of various warrants following a 1.87% rise in HKEX's stock [4] - In the warrants selection, HSBC's warrant 17538 offers a leverage of 9.6 times with a strike price of HKD 530.5, while Bank of China’s warrant 17568 provides a leverage of 9.3 times, both having the lowest premiums and implied volatilities among similar products [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong banking sector, particularly Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), has shown a strong upward trend, with its stock price rising from HKD 5.66 on September 2 to a peak of HKD 6.03, nearing the upper Bollinger Band of HKD 6.04 [1] Technical Analysis - The RSI reading for ICBC is at 58, indicating a healthy bullish zone, while moving averages show mixed signals with MA10 at HKD 5.82, MA30 at HKD 5.94, and MA60 at HKD 6.06, suggesting a search for a clear short-term direction [1] - Current support levels are at HKD 5.79 and HKD 5.59, with resistance at HKD 6.19; a breakthrough could target HKD 6.39 [3] - The stock's volatility is relatively low, with a 5-day amplitude of 5.5%, making it suitable for conservative investors [3] Derivative Products Performance - On September 9, when ICBC's stock rose by 1.70%, related derivative products performed well, with Citibank's call option (16438) and UBS's call option (15583) recording gains of 27%, while Societe Generale's bull certificate (57199) and UBS's bull certificate (65682) achieved returns of 19% and 13% respectively [3] - Investors bullish on the market are recommended to consider Citibank's call option (16438) due to its reasonable strike price of HKD 6.6 and a leverage of 19.7 times, which is the highest among similar products [6] - UBS's call option (15583) offers a strike price of HKD 6.67 with a leverage of 14.4 times, while the Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation's call option (16703) provides a strike price of HKD 7.01 with a leverage of 12.9 times, both presenting good risk-reward ratios [6] Investment Strategy - For bearish investors, JPMorgan's put option (18332) with a strike price of HKD 5.22 offers a leverage of 12 times, making it a strong tool for short positions [6] - In terms of bull and bear certificates, JPMorgan's bull certificate (68394) has a redemption price of HKD 5, providing a safe distance from the current price, while UBS's bull certificate (65682) also has a redemption price of HKD 5, offering a leverage of 6.2 times [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has seen stable trading volumes, with continued inflows from southbound funds, providing indirect support to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) business, although short-term price adjustments are influenced by market sentiment [1] Technical Analysis - The overall technical indicators for HKEX signal a "buy" with a strength of 7, but multiple moving averages indicate a "sell" signal, suggesting potential adjustment pressure in the medium to long term [1] - Various oscillation indicators are neutral, with the RSI at 56, indicating limited short-term market divergence and potential for a rebound [1] - The system assesses a 55% probability of price increase, with a recent volatility of 3.7% over the past five days, indicating moderate speculative opportunities [1] Support and Resistance Levels - The first support level for HKEX is at 434 HKD, and the second support level is at 426 HKD, which are critical defensive levels; a drop below these could lead to further declines [4] - Resistance levels are at 459 HKD, with a higher resistance at 474 HKD; the current stock price is at 449.6 HKD, positioned between support and resistance [4] Product Performance - On August 28, 2025, HKEX saw a 0.98% increase two days later, with recommended products like the Societe Generale call warrant (16781) rising by 9%, HSBC bull certificate (56882) and UBS bull certificate (58003) both increasing by 10%, and UBS call warrant (16698) rising by 8%, demonstrating the leverage effect of warrants and bull/bear certificates [4] Investment Products - For those optimistic about HKEX breaking the 459 HKD resistance, the Societe Generale call warrant (16781) is notable with a leverage of 13 times and an exercise price of 484.08 HKD, featuring low premium and implied volatility [7] - The UBS call warrant (16698) also offers a leverage of 12.5 times, suitable for conservative investors [7] - For those anticipating continued price declines, the HSBC put warrant (19847) is a viable option with a leverage of 7 times and an exercise price of 387.8 HKD, offering low premium and implied volatility [7] - The Bank of China put warrant (19860) also presents a leverage of 6.5 times, with a relatively low premium, effective for capturing price declines [7] Bull and Bear Certificates - For bullish investors, the UBS bull certificate (58003) has the lowest premium and an actual leverage of 10.4 times, with a redemption price of 410 HKD, indicating lower risk [10] - The JPMorgan bull certificate (63465) is also worth considering, with an actual leverage of 11.3 times and a redemption price of 416 HKD, offering good value [10] - For bearish investors, the JPMorgan bear certificate (69320) has high actual leverage of 7.9 times and a redemption price of 510 HKD, effectively capturing price declines [10] - The UBS bear certificate (69819) is also favorable, with a low premium and an actual leverage of 7.8 times, suitable for those confident in short-term corrections [10]

Core Viewpoint - Kuaishou's stock price has shown a significant adjustment, closing at 71.9 HKD with a daily drop of 2.84% and a trading volume of 4.42 billion HKD, indicating market pressure on technology stocks [1][3]. Technical Analysis - Technical indicators suggest a "neutral" signal with a strength of 11, while multiple moving averages indicate a "sell" signal, reflecting medium to long-term pressure [1]. - The RSI value is at 45, also in the neutral zone, indicating mixed market sentiment regarding short-term trends [1]. Support and Resistance Levels - Kuaishou's first support level is at 68.8 HKD and the second at 64.1 HKD, while the first resistance level is at 76 HKD and the higher resistance at 79.7 HKD [3]. - The stock has fallen below 72 HKD, positioning it closer to support levels, suggesting a relatively weak short-term trend [3]. Volatility and Trading Opportunities - The system assessment shows a 57% probability of price increase, with a recent 5-day volatility of 11.2%, indicating significant speculative opportunities [3]. - Historical performance indicates that Kuaishou's price movements can lead to substantial returns through leveraged products, as seen with various warrants and certificates [3]. Leveraged Products - For bullish sentiment, the highest leverage product is the Societe Generale call warrant (24996) with a leverage of 7.6 times and an exercise price of 72 HKD [5]. - For bearish sentiment, the Citigroup put warrant (19156) offers a leverage of 3.4 times with an exercise price of 68.33 HKD, while the Bank of China put warrant (19035) has a leverage of 2.9 times [5][6]. Additional Leveraged Products - HSBC bull certificate (59410) has the highest actual leverage at 7.7 times with a low premium and a redemption price of 66 HKD [8]. - The Societe Generale bear certificate (59208) offers a leverage of 6.1 times with a low premium and a redemption price of 83 HKD, suitable for bearish strategies [8].

Group 1 - Xiaomi's stock price is currently at 51.5 HKD, showing a 1.28% increase, but technical indicators suggest severe overselling with an RSI of 31, indicating a potential for a technical rebound [1] - The stock has fallen below all key moving averages, with MA10 at 52.85 HKD, MA30 at 55.98 HKD, and MA60 at 54.94 HKD, while other indicators like the Williams %R, Stochastic Oscillator, and CCI signal a buying opportunity [1] - Short-term support levels are identified at 48.8 HKD (Support 1) and 45.1 HKD (Support 2), with resistance levels at 53.5 HKD (Resistance 1) and 56 HKD (Resistance 2) [2] Group 2 - Recent derivative products have shown strong performance, with UBS bear certificate 59867 rising by 13% and JPMorgan bear certificate 55706 increasing by 12% during a period when Xiaomi's stock fell by 2.03% [4] - Recommended products for investors anticipating a rebound include Morgan Stanley call option 16583 with a strike price of 59.05 HKD and a leverage of 10.1 times, and Bank of China call option 29957 with a strike price of 59 HKD and a leverage of 9.9 times [7] - For bearish investors, Morgan Stanley put option 14322 and HSBC put option 14333, both with a strike price of 46.45 HKD and competitive premiums, are suggested [7][10]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi's stock price is currently experiencing volatility, with technical indicators suggesting a potential short-term rebound despite being in an oversold condition [1][12]. Technical Analysis - As of August 13, 2025, Xiaomi's stock price is at 52.5 HKD, showing a 1.55% increase. The RSI indicator is at 31, indicating an oversold condition. The stock price has fallen below the 10-day moving average (52.98 HKD) and the 30-day moving average (56.02 HKD), but is supported near the 60-day moving average (54.97 HKD) [1]. - The William and stochastic indicators are signaling a buy, contrasting with the MACD sell signal, suggesting a possible technical rebound in the short term [1]. - Key support levels are identified at 49.7 HKD and 46.4 HKD, while resistance levels are at 54.5 HKD and 57 HKD. A significant market volatility is indicated by an 8% fluctuation over five days [3]. Market Sentiment - Recent trading activity shows a capital inflow of 35 million HKD into Xiaomi's call options over the past five trading days, indicating investor interest in capitalizing on potential rebounds [1]. - The stock has seen fluctuations, with a recent low of 50.1 HKD and a previous high of over 60 HKD, reflecting investor concerns amid competitive pressures in the automotive sector [1]. Derivative Products Performance - Recent recommendations for derivative products have shown strong performance, with certain bull certificates experiencing gains of 30% and 24% in a short period, demonstrating the effectiveness of leveraged products in a rebound scenario [5]. - New recommendations for call options include HSBC's call option with a strike price of 60.65 HKD and a leverage of 7.2 times, suitable for speculative rebound plays [8]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to monitor the support level at 49.7 HKD closely. If this level holds, there may be opportunities for gradual accumulation [3]. - For bearish investors, options with lower strike prices and higher leverage are available, providing hedging opportunities against potential declines [8][10].

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is experiencing a neutral trend with no clear direction, showing 6 buy signals and 7 sell signals, with support at 24,417 and resistance at 25,300 [1] - Investors are divided, with some expecting the index to drop to 23,000 while others are looking for short-term rebounds [1] Group 2: BYD Electronics (00285.HK) - The stock price rebounded from a low of 39.04, closing at 38.68, with a buy signal indicating a short-term upward trend [3] - The first resistance level is at 40.8, with potential to reach 42.7 if broken, while support levels are at 35.3 and 34.3 [3] Group 3: Sunny Optical Technology (02382.HK) - The stock reached a high of 79.65 and closed at 77.05, with a buy signal indicating a positive short-term outlook [5] - Resistance levels are at 79.2 and 82.5, with a target of 80-90 still some distance away [5] Group 4: Bilibili-W (09626.HK) - The stock is showing a mixed trend, with a buy signal but resistance at 192.3, indicating potential challenges for upward movement [9] - Support levels are at 173.9 and 164.3, with a close proximity to the investor's put option strike price of 162.22 [9] Group 5: China Unicom (00762.HK) - The stock has shown strong performance, reaching a high of 10.17, with a buy signal and potential to challenge 13 [12] - Resistance levels are at 10.20 and 10.9, indicating that reaching 13 will require more time [12] Group 6: Alibaba-W (09988.HK) - The stock closed at 118.5 with a buy signal, indicating a sideways movement [15] - Investors are advised to consider short-term strategies, but should be cautious of time decay in options due to the stock's slow movement [15]