文/ 招商银行股份有限公司消费行业战略客户部副总经理（主持工作） 王健男 ，招商银行股份有限公司消费行业战略客户部客户总监 党军 优化协同机制结构：双轮驱动效应可进一步增强。 CIPS与CBDC的常态化协同机制仍在完善中，二者功能互补性有待进一步释放。一方面，CIPS在大额 资金跨境调拨中的效率优势，与CBDC在小额高频支付场景中的便捷特性未能有机融合，从央企海外供应链结算实践看，对核心合作方的大额资金划转多 通过CIPS完成，而对中小合作方的小额支付仍依赖传统银行渠道，银行在渠道整合与技术适配方面的作用仍有提升空间，CBDC缩短清算周期、降低操作 成本的技术优势尚未完全转化为实际效能；另一方面，CBDC交易轨迹全程可追溯的技术特性，与CIPS的清算状态监控功能缺乏司库层面的联动衔接。从 央企跨境支付风险管控实践观察，部分企业司库系统在跨境资金流向全链条追踪方面仍需强化，异常交易识别时效有待提升，风险预警与处置的前瞻性仍 可进一步增强，未能形成实时监控、及时拦截、事后追溯的闭环防控机制。 为应对全球金融基础设施 "断链"风险与跨境支付效率瓶颈，"十五五"规 划建议将建设自主可控的人民币跨境支付体系列为核心任务 ...

Core Insights - Circle's IPO represents a significant signal to the market, indicating confidence in the sector and compliance intentions to regulators, while showcasing the emergence of on-chain USD as a mainstream financial instrument [2][20] - For China, the focus on stablecoins is not about whether to engage, but rather how to integrate into global liquidity and promote the story of the Renminbi [3][20] Company Overview - Circle, founded in 2013, initially aimed to create a cross-border payment service based on Bitcoin, but faced significant challenges, including a drastic valuation drop from $3 billion to $750 million, a 75% decline [4][5] - The company pivoted to focus on the issuance of the USDC stablecoin, which is fully backed by USD reserves, and has seen its market cap grow significantly, reaching approximately $29.7 billion post-IPO [3][5] Market Dynamics - The stablecoin market is rapidly evolving, with Tether holding a 62% market share and Circle's USDC at 25%, while major corporations like Walmart and Amazon are exploring their own stablecoins [3][5] - The global stablecoin market is projected to exceed $3 trillion in the coming years, driven by increasing institutional adoption and regulatory clarity [5][19] Regulatory Environment - The U.S. is moving towards clearer regulations for stablecoins, with proposed legislation requiring full USD backing and regular audits, which enhances the credibility of compliant issuers like Circle [6][10] - In contrast, China maintains a cautious stance, prohibiting private stablecoin issuance while promoting the digital Renminbi, indicating a divergence in regulatory approaches between the two countries [11][18] Competitive Landscape - Circle's strategy emphasizes compliance and transparency as competitive advantages, positioning USDC as a foundational infrastructure for digital transactions [6][19] - The stablecoin sector is expected to consolidate, with leading players like USDC and USDT potentially forming a duopoly similar to Visa and Mastercard in traditional finance [20] Future Outlook - The stablecoin market is anticipated to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting a total market cap of $2 to $3 trillion within the next 5 to 10 years, contingent on the ability of companies like Circle to build robust financial networks [19][20] - The evolution of stablecoins is seen as a functional complement to traditional payment systems, particularly in cross-border transactions and in regions with high inflation [16][17]