美元占比降至42.8%，欧元升至32.5%，人民币表现如何？ 最近刷财经新闻的朋友，大概率见过"美元霸权松动"的说法，甚至有消息传"美元全球储备占比跌到42.8%，欧元冲到32.5%"。这消息一出来，不少人既好奇 又疑惑：美元真的跌这么快？欧元能接棒吗？咱们天天用的人民币，在这场全球货币"排位赛"里表现咋样？ 其实这些网传数据和官方口径有出入——国际货币基金组织（IMF）2025年二季度最新的COFER数据显示，美元储备占比是56.3%，虽然创了30年新低，但 远没到42.8%；欧元占比稳在20.2%左右，也没突破32.5%。不过"美元走弱、货币格局生变"是真的，今天就用IMF、中国央行的权威数据说话，聊聊美元、 欧元的真实处境，更关键的是看看人民币的底气和进展。 一、先辨真假：美元欧元的真实"排位分" 网传的"美元42.8%、欧元32.5%"可能混淆了"储备货币"和"交易货币"的口径，咱们得用IMF的官方数据算笔明白账。 先说美元：2025年二季度，它在全球外汇储备中的占比是56.3%，这是1994年以来的最低值，比2000年的72%跌了15.7个百分点。跌的原因很实在：一是美 联储2024年连续降息，把基 ...

CIPS的"长成"，既是人民币跨境支付技术成熟，亦是金融开 放制度设计的深度跃迁。 作者： 欧阳晓红 封图：图虫创意 当人民币既能用于国家间的大宗贸易，又能服务于个人日常消费时，其国际化或许才真正具备了深 度与韧性。 伊斯坦布尔，一则中央银行授权的公告，让人民币清算在这座连接亚欧大陆的古老城市悄然落地。 根据2025年7月2日发布的中国人民银行公告﹝2025﹞第15号，中国人民银行授权中国工商银行 （土耳其）股份有限公司担任人民币清算行。 这是继中东、东盟、非洲、欧洲等区域之后，CIPS在欧亚枢纽的又一关键落点。有分析人士指 出，与此前签署的清算安排合作备忘录不同，此次设立土耳其清算行，意味着人民币清算体系在东 欧—西亚交汇地带实现了实质性突破。 7月9日，在中国人民银行行长潘功胜与埃及央行行长哈桑·阿布达拉见证下，跨境银行间支付清算 有限责任公司（下称"跨境清算公司"，负责CIPS系统运营）、中非泰达投资股份有限公司及苏伊 士运河银行签署备忘录，鼓励中埃·泰达苏伊士经贸合作区内银行通过CIPS办理跨境人民币业务。 人民币的"批发与零售" 一边是从"技术上线"到"制度成熟"的主动脉式演进，一边是旨在解决人民币 ...

Core Viewpoint - The internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) is gaining depth and resilience as it transitions from a wholesale currency for large-scale trade to a retail currency for everyday transactions [1] Group 1: RMB Cross-Border Payment System (CIPS) - The CIPS has evolved over ten years, transitioning from a technical launch to a mature institutional framework, facilitating cross-border RMB payments [2][6] - As of August 2025, CIPS has 176 direct participants and 1,552 indirect participants, marking an increase of nearly eight times since its initial launch in 2015 [4][11] - The CIPS system processed RMB cross-border payment transactions amounting to 175 trillion yuan in 2024, a 43% year-on-year increase, highlighting the growing use of RMB in cross-border transactions [12] Group 2: Global Expansion and Institutional Upgrades - The establishment of a RMB clearing bank in Turkey represents a significant breakthrough in the RMB clearing system, enhancing its presence in the Eurasian region [3][8] - The release of the draft rules for the RMB cross-border payment system signifies a major institutional upgrade, providing a standardized and compliant framework for CIPS operations [6][7] - CIPS is now aligned with international standards, aiming to enhance its global network and facilitate the use of RMB in international trade and finance [12][13] Group 3: Strategic Importance and Future Prospects - CIPS is positioned as a key financial infrastructure supporting China's "going out" strategy, facilitating the internationalization of the RMB [11][13] - The system's modular and internationalized design allows for greater flexibility and adaptability in the global financial landscape [7][10] - The ongoing development of CIPS is expected to further enhance its influence and market share in the international payment system [10]

Core Viewpoint - Finance is a key battleground in geopolitical economic competition, with financial sanctions being increasingly utilized by major powers to achieve both economic and non-economic objectives. The rise of financial sanctions is driven by external factors such as network effects and technological advancements, as well as institutional design that allows certain countries to leverage their financial systems for asymmetric geopolitical advantages [2][3][4]. Group 1: Financial Sanctions Overview - Financial sanctions are defined as measures taken by one or more governments or international organizations to restrict the financial activities of specific countries, entities, or individuals to achieve certain economic or political goals [6][7]. - The number of financial sanctions has significantly increased in recent years, with the Global Sanctions Data Base (GSDB) reporting a rise from an average of 200 sanctions per year to over 500, indicating a shift in geopolitical competition from traditional military means to trade and financial tools [7][8]. Group 2: Mechanisms and Effects of Financial Sanctions - Financial sanctions can lead to a substantial increase in the target country's financial transaction costs, which can rise from approximately 0.5% to about 3%, significantly impacting financial stability and increasing the likelihood of sovereign defaults [24][29]. - The economic impact of financial sanctions largely depends on the size and openness of the target country. Larger and more open economies tend to have a greater capacity to withstand sanctions, while smaller economies may face more severe consequences [27][31]. Group 3: Differences in Financial Sanction Capabilities - The United States possesses the most robust financial sanction capabilities, supported by a comprehensive institutional framework that allows for swift implementation and enforcement of sanctions [16][19]. - The European Union has strong sanction capabilities but faces challenges in internal coordination, which can lead to more restrained execution of sanctions compared to the U.S. [20][21]. - China's financial sanction framework is still developing but has made significant strides in recent years, establishing legal foundations to respond to foreign sanctions [21][25]. Group 4: International Responses to Financial Sanctions - Countries facing financial sanctions can enhance the resilience of their financial systems and support high-risk enterprises as a short-term strategy. Long-term strategies include diversifying reserve assets and strengthening legal frameworks against sanctions [43][44]. - Utilizing physical assets to facilitate international financial cooperation and deepening financial ties with neighboring countries can also serve as effective countermeasures against financial sanctions [47][48].

Group 1: Diplomatic Engagement and Financial Implications - A bipartisan U.S. congressional delegation visited China for the first time since 2019, emphasizing the need for high-level dialogue between the U.S. and China [1] - Chinese Premier Li Qiang reiterated the importance of mutual respect in cooperation, while the U.S. seeks to stabilize market confidence by urging China to halt or slow down the sale of U.S. Treasury bonds [1][9] - The backdrop of these discussions includes significant concerns over U.S. Treasury market stability and the implications of China's actions on global financial markets [1][9] Group 2: Trends in U.S. Treasury Holdings - In July 2025, China reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds by $25.7 billion, bringing its total to $730.7 billion, the lowest level since 2009 [2] - This reduction is part of a broader trend, with China having decreased its U.S. Treasury holdings by $173.2 billion in 2022, $50.8 billion in 2023, and $57.3 billion in 2024, totaling a net reduction of $53.7 billion in the first seven months of 2025 [2] Group 3: Economic and Policy Drivers - The reduction in U.S. Treasury holdings by China is driven by concerns over U.S. fiscal policy, including high national debt and interest payments exceeding $1 trillion annually [3] - The U.S. national debt has reached $37 trillion, leading to fears about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy and the credibility of the dollar [3][8] Group 4: Comparative Analysis with Other Nations - Japan and the UK have increased their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, with Japan holding $1.147 trillion and the UK $858.1 billion, contrasting with China's reduction [4] - Japan's increase is attributed to trade surpluses and low domestic interest rates, while the UK's increase reflects its role as a global financial hub and the need for liquidity amid economic uncertainty [4] Group 5: Credit Ratings and Market Reactions - Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating from AAA to Aa1 in May 2025, reflecting concerns over fiscal sustainability and increasing deficits [5] - The downgrade may trigger passive adjustments by various institutions, impacting the demand for U.S. Treasury bonds [5] Group 6: Shift Towards Alternative Assets - Central banks are increasingly looking for reserve assets that do not rely on U.S. credit, leading to a rise in gold holdings, with China's gold reserves reaching 74.02 million ounces by August 2025 [6] - The global trend shows a significant increase in gold purchases by central banks, with 95% of surveyed central banks expecting to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months [6] Group 7: Currency and Settlement Changes - The cross-border settlement of digital yuan surpassed 500 billion yuan in 2025, indicating a shift towards de-dollarization [7] - The share of the U.S. dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has decreased to 57.7%, while the use of the yuan in cross-border payments has risen significantly [7] Group 8: U.S. Monetary Policy Responses - The Federal Reserve has expanded its balance sheet from $4.2 trillion in 2020 to $9 trillion in 2025 through quantitative easing to stabilize the Treasury market [8] - The ongoing fiscal debates in the U.S. Congress could lead to a government shutdown, further impacting the credibility of U.S. debt [8] Group 9: Future Observations and Implications - The visit of the U.S. delegation to China highlights the urgency of addressing financial risks and the need for cooperation on key issues [9] - The potential visit of former President Trump to China could signify a shift in diplomatic and financial strategies between the two nations [9][10]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China is committed to deepening financial openness and cooperation to enhance financial security and support high-quality development in line with China's modernization goals [1] - Financial sector institutional openness is steadily advancing, with significant improvements in market connectivity and mechanisms like Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Bond Connect, facilitating foreign investment in China's financial markets [1] - As of the end of July, foreign institutions and individuals held over 10 trillion yuan in China's domestic stocks, bonds, and deposits, with stock holdings exceeding 3 trillion yuan and bond holdings over 4 trillion yuan [1] Group 2 - The international status of the renminbi is steadily rising, with the establishment of bilateral currency swap agreements with 32 countries and regions, enhancing the offshore renminbi market [2] - The renminbi has become the largest currency for China's external payments, the third-largest trade financing currency globally, and ranks third in the IMF's Special Drawing Rights basket [2] - The construction of international financial centers is progressing, with Shanghai being supported as a global hub for renminbi asset allocation and risk management [2] Group 3 - The business environment is becoming more friendly and inclusive, with significant improvements in cross-border trade and investment facilitation, and the establishment of a diversified cross-border payment system [3] - The financial risk prevention capabilities under the open financial framework are being enhanced, with a focus on monitoring and assessing cross-border financial risks [3]

Group 1 - The forum on "AI Development and Financial Innovation under China-ASEAN Cooperation" was held in Nanning, Guangxi, emphasizing the importance of financial stability for economic vitality [1] - Guangxi aims to enhance AI application in financial services, innovate financial products, and create a cluster of funds in the AI sector to support economic development [1] - The forum was attended by nearly 400 participants, including officials from the China Securities Regulatory Commission and financial institutions from ASEAN countries [3] Group 2 - The bilateral trade between China and ASEAN reached $597 billion from January to July 2025, marking an 8.2% year-on-year increase [2] - The cross-border RMB settlement volume between China and ASEAN was 8.9 trillion yuan in 2024, showing a 51% year-on-year growth [2] - The CIPS has become the main channel for cross-border RMB transactions, processing 21 trillion yuan in 2024, which is a 96% increase [2] - The collaboration on QR codes and fast payment systems has significantly improved cross-border payment convenience, with notable advancements in central bank digital currency cooperation [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent actions by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) indicate a significant acceleration in the internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB), with initiatives such as the launch of a cross-border QR code unified gateway and bilateral currency settlement frameworks with Indonesia and other central banks [1][2]. Group 1: RMB Cross-Border Settlement Expansion - The PBOC has initiated a bilateral currency settlement framework with Indonesia and a cross-border QR code interoperability project, which are expected to enhance the use of RMB in cross-border trade and investment [1]. - As of June, under the bilateral currency swap agreements, foreign monetary authorities utilized RMB balances amounting to 80.7 billion yuan, while the PBOC used foreign currency balances equivalent to approximately 400 million yuan, positively impacting bilateral trade and investment [1]. Group 2: Support for Internationalization Acceleration - The global payment currency ranking by SWIFT shows that as of August 2025, RMB remains the sixth most active currency globally, accounting for 2.93% of the total [2]. - The PBOC's Governor highlighted that the RMB's international status is steadily rising, ranking third in global trade financing currencies and as the third-largest payment currency according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket [2]. - The RMB cross-border payment system (CIPS) now covers 189 countries and regions, processing 4.0295 million transactions worth 90.19 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, serving as a crucial support for RMB internationalization [2]. Group 3: Economic Confidence and Future Prospects - The active role of RMB in global payments reflects the confidence of domestic and international economic entities in China's economy, bolstered by a series of incremental policies that have shown positive effects [3]. - As China's GDP share of the global economy increases, the attractiveness of RMB is expected to rise, further promoting its internationalization [3]. - The demand for asset diversification in emerging markets is anticipated to open doors for accelerated RMB internationalization in the coming years [3].

Core Viewpoint - The recent notice from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) represents a significant reform in cross-border capital flow management, enhancing the structure for cross-border payments and the use of the renminbi, thereby supporting the internationalization of the renminbi during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1][4][10]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The notice aims to improve the convenience of cross-border investment and financing, attract foreign investment, and promote high-quality financial services for the real economy [3][10]. - Key reforms include the cancellation of prior registration requirements for foreign direct investment (FDI) expenses and the facilitation of reinvestment of foreign exchange profits within China [3][4]. - The notice also simplifies the management of cross-border financing for high-tech and specialized small and medium-sized enterprises, raising the financing limit to the equivalent of $10 million, with some enterprises eligible for up to $20 million [4][10]. Group 2: Capital Project Adjustments - Adjustments in capital project income payments include reducing the negative list and removing restrictions on purchasing non-self-use residential properties [4][10]. - The notice allows for a more flexible approach to payment facilitation, enabling banks to set their own post-check ratios and frequencies [4][10]. - Foreign individuals can now settle payments for property purchases in China with just a purchase contract, streamlining the process [4][10]. Group 3: Cross-Border Payment System Development - The notice aligns with the 10th anniversary of the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), which has expanded significantly, processing transactions worth 175 trillion yuan annually with a compound annual growth rate of 43% over the past decade [7][8]. - CIPS now covers 189 countries and regions, processing 4.03 million transactions worth 9.02 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, highlighting its role in supporting the internationalization of the renminbi [8][9]. - The development of a diversified cross-border payment system is emphasized, with increasing use of local currencies and new payment infrastructures emerging [6][11]. Group 4: Strategic Implications - The notice is seen as a pivotal moment in China's financial strategy, aiming to balance development and security while enhancing cross-border investment and financing [10][11]. - Analysts suggest that the reforms may create a rare window for investors to benefit from duration premiums and institutional arbitrage, although caution is advised as these opportunities may diminish once the reforms are fully implemented [11].

Core Insights - The 2025 China-ASEAN Financial Cooperation and Development Forum highlighted a significant increase in the use of the Chinese yuan in ASEAN countries, with a projected cross-border payment amount of RMB 89,024.7 billion in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 50.74%, the fastest in three years [1][3]. Group 1: Cross-Border Payment Developments - ASEAN countries have consistently maintained a leading position in the use of the Chinese yuan for cross-border transactions [3]. - The bilateral use of local currencies between China and ASEAN has made notable progress across various sectors, including deepening monetary cooperation and expanding the coverage of cross-border clearing and settlement networks [3][4]. - The China Payment System (CIPS) reported a year-on-year increase of 41.6% in the number of cross-border yuan transactions and a 95.6% increase in transaction amounts with ASEAN countries [3]. Group 2: Strategic Initiatives and Collaborations - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is committed to enhancing cross-border payment cooperation with ASEAN nations, focusing on improving CIPS infrastructure and promoting the interoperability of cross-border retail payments [4]. - New projects such as the "Hui Xiao Er" cross-border financial service platform and the North Bay Digital RMB service platform were launched during the forum, indicating a push towards innovative financial solutions [4].