这篇文章来分析2026年货币大洗牌：过去几十年，美元就是全球货币的"老大"，手里有美元，就等于有了底气，但现在不一样了，全球金融圈最明显的变 化，就是大家不再把美元当成唯一的"硬通货"了。 以前美元说了算，现在各国都在找"退路" 要说美元为啥能当这么久"老大"，得回头看二战结束的时候，那时候美国经济最强，军事实力也最厉害，就牵头定了个规则，也就是布雷顿森林体系。 简单说就是，美元和黄金挂钩，你有多少美元，就能换多少黄金，其他国家的钱，再跟着美元走，这样一来，美元就成了全球公认的储备货币、结算货币， 地位一下子就稳了。 后来这个体系崩了，按说美元的地位该受影响才对，但它还是没倒，核心原因就是，美国把美元和石油绑在了一起。 大家都知道，石油是每个国家都离不开的能源，不管是开车、发电，还是工业生产，都得用，美国就规定，全球买卖石油，必须用美元结算。 这一下，不管哪个国家，想要进口石油，就必须先攒够美元，美元的地位自然就稳如泰山，这就是所谓的石油美元体系，也是美元霸权的根本。 可美国自己，慢慢把这条路走歪了，这些年，美国国内经济一不行，就想了个简单粗暴的办法——印钱，拼命印美元，然后把这些钱投到全球市场。 从2020 ...

以下文章来源于中国金融 ，作者陈四清 中国金融 . 中国人民银行主管的中央级财经媒体，以"权威、专业、理性、前沿"为理念，以"高端权威、高层读者、高效传播"为特色，以宣传金融政策、分析金融运 行、报道金融实践为主旨，是国内外了解中国金融的重要载体 文/第十四届全国政协外事委员会副主任、中国工商银行原董事长 陈四清 2 全球跨境支付体系变革为人民币跨境支付体系建设带来新机遇 近年来，随着全球治理变革、经贸格局调整和科技革命突破，全球跨境支付体系加快变革，日益呈现多元化、区域化、数字化特 征。 全球治理变革推动跨境支付体系走向"多元化"。 当前，新兴市场经济体逐步崛起，占全球GDP比重突破60%，推动传统治理格局 从"主导式"向"共治式"发展，跨境支付体系也呈现相同的变化趋势。一方面，越来越多的国家加速布局平行系统，推进本国支付体 系的自主可控，例如欧洲中央银行即时支付结算系统（TIPS）、俄罗斯金融信息传输系统（SPFS），以及我国的人民币跨境支付 系统（CIPS）等。"十四五"时期，CIPS处理跨境人民币业务规模年均增长40.3%，人民币成为全球第三大支付货币。另一方面， 国际社会在二十国集团（G20）、金融 ...

美元最近波动不止，是回光返照，还是绝地反击？ 哪里有战争、金融市场动荡、股市暴跌，全球的资金首先想到的就是买美元。 它是金融世界里的一道港湾，风越大，人越多。 国际贸易中用它来结算，央行以它为储备，跨境支付也离不开它。 只要地球在转，美元也在账本上转。 但是再坚固的港口也会因为经常起风而被摧毁，近几年美元体系也开始频频"感冒"。 经济波动加大，美联储加息又降息如同踩油门又猛踩刹车，全球资本因此感到有些晕眩，那么美元体系 到底出了什么问题？ 当市场情绪反复摇摆，资本大进大出，越来越多人开始追问一个更根本的问题： 美元霸权，是在修复裂缝，还是已经走到十字路口？ 如果信心松动，这套体系还能撑多久？ 几十年来美元几乎就等同于"安全感"的代名词。 美债"甩卖季"开始，美元也开始坐不住了。 现在海外在大量抛售美债，并且不是小打小闹，而是核心持仓在不断缩水。 从2025年4月特朗普政府再次推出强硬关税政策后，市场情绪就发生了明显的转变。 关税简单地说就是全球贸易的收费口，每辆车都要缴纳过路费。 收费站多了之后，车辆也会绕行。资金也一样。 截至去年10月，纽约联储代持的外国央行持有的美元资产规模，已下降到2.7万亿美元，这是 ...

法案里的"毒刺"到底扎哪儿了？ 395:2！美国踩下金融核弹引信，中国去美元化进入读秒阶段 老铁们，2月9日这天，美国国会山那帮老爷们搞了个大动作，直接把台海这潭水搅成了沸腾的油锅！395票赞成、2票反对，这数字砸出来， 比NBA总决赛绝杀球还让人心脏骤停。众议院这帮人跟打了鸡血似的，几乎全票通过《保护台湾法案》，明晃晃把"金融制裁"四个大字拍在 中国脸上——你敢动台湾，我就把你踢出全球金融圈！这哪是法案，分明是顶在脑门上的枪！ 美国人以为握着金融霸权就能为所欲为？咱掰开数据看：中国持有8700亿美元美债，虽比巅峰期减持40%，但仍是美国第二大债主。真要硬 脱钩，美国国债收益率得飙升到6%以上，房贷利率跟着破8%，华尔街那帮精英先得哭晕在厕所。去年人民币跨境支付系统（CIPS）处理金 额96万亿元，同比涨32%，全球2000多家银行接入，这可不是吓大的！ 中国的"反杀剧本"早写好了 真当咱没后手？看看最近动作：沙特伊朗用人民币结算石油，巴西阿根廷搞本币互换，东盟40%贸易用人民币结算。更狠的是，数字人民币 桥（mBridge）项目已经连通20国央行，SWIFT那套老系统迟早被架空。美国想踢中国出金融圈？最后可 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights that 2025 marks a critical year for China's financial reform and opening-up, transitioning from market access to institutional openness, focusing on rules and regulations, and aiming for high-quality development in the financial sector [9][10]. Market Development - The capital market's two-way opening continues to deepen, with significant improvements in the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Bond Connect, leading to increased trading activity and market stability [10][18]. - The internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) is accelerating, with a global cross-border payment system and rapid development of the digital RMB, creating a dual-driven new pattern [10][33]. - The bond market has seen substantial growth, with the "Bond Connect" mechanism enhancing cross-border investment and risk management capabilities, making Chinese bonds a core option for global asset allocation [23][27]. Industry Development - Foreign financial institutions are accelerating their entry into the Chinese market, focusing on wealth management, green finance, and technology insurance, while domestic institutions are expanding internationally, particularly in Belt and Road Initiative countries [10][52]. - The insurance sector is witnessing increased foreign participation, with foreign insurance companies' total assets reaching 3.32 trillion RMB, a 12.1% increase from the previous year [57]. Institutional Introduction - The introduction of foreign institutions is shifting from mere expansion to focusing on high-net-worth wealth management and cross-border finance, indicating a more strategic approach [72]. - As of mid-2025, there are 42 foreign banks operating in China, with a strong emphasis on capital strength and international experience, contributing significantly to the local banking landscape [47][50]. Business Development - The Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) and Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor (QDII) systems are continuously optimized, expanding investment channels and quotas, which enhances cross-border financial integration [11][52]. - The establishment of cross-border financial services in strategic regions like the Yangtze River Delta and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is progressing, creating a multi-layered regional opening pattern [11][12]. Regulatory Reform - Financial regulatory reforms are being implemented, including the optimization of the qualified foreign investor system and the introduction of new policies to enhance the financial regulatory framework [11][12]. - The integration of finance and technology is deepening, forming a comprehensive financial support system for technological innovation throughout its lifecycle [11][12]. Future Outlook - Looking ahead to 2026, the focus will be on deepening institutional openness, aligning rules and standards with international practices, and promoting a more competitive and resilient modern financial system [12].

Core Viewpoint - The Central Financial Work Conference emphasizes the importance of advancing high-level financial openness in China, aiming to enhance the competitiveness and influence of the Shanghai International Financial Center while better serving the real economy [1]. Group 1: Institutional Opening - Institutional opening is the core of high-level financial openness, focusing on aligning domestic financial regulations and market rules with international best practices to create a stable and transparent business environment [2]. - The recent upgrade of the free trade account system in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is seen as a significant step towards high-level financial openness, allowing pilot enterprises to conduct more flexible cross-border payments [2]. - The achievements of institutional opening are reflected in the enhanced service capabilities and international competitiveness of Chinese banks, enabling them to provide tangible cross-border financial conveniences to enterprises [2]. Group 2: Cross-Border Service Capabilities - Chinese banks' global service networks and comprehensive capabilities are key indicators of the effectiveness of institutional opening, providing one-stop services for enterprises to connect with international capital markets [3]. - The steady rise of the renminbi's international status injects core momentum into the opening system, as it has become the primary settlement currency for China's external payments and ranks among the top three trade financing and payment currencies globally [3]. Group 3: Financial Infrastructure for Global Operations - The banking sector is transitioning from traditional settlement and financing services to becoming comprehensive service partners that cover the entire cycle of investment, financing, risk management, and treasury management for enterprises going global [6]. - A notable case is the successful syndicate loan of 3.78 billion yuan provided by the Bank of China for Zijin Mining's acquisition of a gold mine in Ghana, showcasing how banks can support enterprises in managing cross-border transaction risks [6]. Group 4: Risk Management and Compliance - The Chinese financial regulatory authorities are pushing for a transformation in anti-money laundering efforts from mere compliance to proactive risk prevention, requiring banks to enhance their risk management capabilities [13]. - The establishment of a global risk monitoring and early warning system is essential for banks to manage various risks, including country and geopolitical risks, as they expand their international operations [17]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The future of China's banking sector will focus on deepening institutional opening and actively participating in international financial governance, with an emphasis on aligning with high-standard international rules [19]. - Banks are encouraged to transform from passive fund providers to active industry collaborators, embedding cross-border financial services into the global supply chains of emerging industries [20]. - Building a diverse, transparent, and risk-controlled open financial ecosystem is crucial for enhancing the international competitiveness of Chinese banks and supporting the implementation of national strategies [22].

Market Overview - The A-share market has seen a rotation of hotspots this year, while the Hong Kong stock market has also experienced a shift in focus, with the Hang Seng Tech Index down nearly 20% since its peak in October last year [1] - In contrast, stable and dividend-paying local giants in Hong Kong have been on the rise recently [1] Sector Performance - The energy, real estate, and financial sectors have shown the highest gains in the recent uptrend of the Hong Kong stock market [2] - Bank, insurance, real estate, and public utility stocks in Hong Kong have seen a significant increase in popularity and valuation recovery since last year [3] Financial Sector Insights - The financial sector's strong performance is attributed to multiple favorable factors, including the implementation of new regulations for the Renminbi cross-border payment system (CIPS), which positions Hong Kong as a "Renminbi offshore pricing center" [11] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority reports double-digit growth in Renminbi deposits and cross-border settlement volumes, enhancing the business potential for financial institutions [11] - The active IPO and refinancing market in Hong Kong has created a wealth effect, boosting demand for wealth management services and benefiting brokerage and investment banking businesses [11] Real Estate Sector Insights - The rise in the Hong Kong real estate sector is influenced by both mainland and local property companies, with recent policies from the mainland stabilizing market expectations [12] - The Hong Kong real estate market has shown signs of recovery, with the total number of property sale contracts reaching a four-year high in 2025, and residential prices increasing for seven consecutive months [13][20] - The overall private residential sales volume in Hong Kong is expected to rise by 18% in 2025, marking two consecutive years of growth [20] Rental Market Dynamics - The rental market in Hong Kong is experiencing strong demand due to an influx of professionals and students, leading to rising rental prices [24] - The rental index has shown continuous growth, with a 4.26% increase in 2025, indicating a robust rental market compared to the sales market [24][27] Future Outlook - The Hong Kong real estate market is projected to see a 10% increase in property prices in 2026, the largest annual increase since 2017 [35] - Despite the positive outlook, there are still risks associated with geopolitical uncertainties and the presence of financially troubled companies in the sector [36]

文/ 招商银行股份有限公司消费行业战略客户部副总经理（主持工作） 王健男 ，招商银行股份有限公司消费行业战略客户部客户总监 党军 优化协同机制结构：双轮驱动效应可进一步增强。 CIPS与CBDC的常态化协同机制仍在完善中，二者功能互补性有待进一步释放。一方面，CIPS在大额 资金跨境调拨中的效率优势，与CBDC在小额高频支付场景中的便捷特性未能有机融合，从央企海外供应链结算实践看，对核心合作方的大额资金划转多 通过CIPS完成，而对中小合作方的小额支付仍依赖传统银行渠道，银行在渠道整合与技术适配方面的作用仍有提升空间，CBDC缩短清算周期、降低操作 成本的技术优势尚未完全转化为实际效能；另一方面，CBDC交易轨迹全程可追溯的技术特性，与CIPS的清算状态监控功能缺乏司库层面的联动衔接。从 央企跨境支付风险管控实践观察，部分企业司库系统在跨境资金流向全链条追踪方面仍需强化，异常交易识别时效有待提升，风险预警与处置的前瞻性仍 可进一步增强，未能形成实时监控、及时拦截、事后追溯的闭环防控机制。 为应对全球金融基础设施 "断链"风险与跨境支付效率瓶颈，"十五五"规 划建议将建设自主可控的人民币跨境支付体系列为核心任务 ...

2025年4月，美债市场遭遇一场剧烈震荡，中国单日抛售500亿美元美国国债，导致10年期美债收益率如脱缰野马般飙升至4.51%，创 下四十年来的惊人涨幅。 美国财政部最新数据显示，中国持有的美债规模已降至6826亿美元，这是自2008年金融危机以来的最低水平。与2013年近1.3万亿美 元的峰值相比，中国已经抛售了近一半的美国国债。 这一抛售行为不是孤立事件，而是连续数月的战略性撤退。2025年10月，中国美债持仓进一步缩水至6887亿美元，创下十七年新低。 美国国债市场曾被认为是全球最安全的金融市场，如今却遭遇前所未有的信任危机。中国持续减持美债的举动犹如推倒了第一张多米 诺骨牌，引发了连锁反应。 2025年4月的抛售潮中，华尔街出现了罕见的"买家罢工"现象。即便作为美债传统最大买入方的华尔街机构，也因担忧信用风险而选 择观望。 债券市场的逻辑残酷而清晰：当抛售潮出现，债券价格下跌，收益率则反向飙升。市场测算显示，每减持360亿美元美债，10年期美 债收益率就会上升0.05个百分点。中国2025年以来的减持规模，足以让收益率抬升超过0.3个百分点。 然而，这些措施与美国庞大的债务规模和利息负担相比，显得杯水 ...

Group 1 - The revised "Rules for the Renminbi Cross-Border Payment System" will be implemented starting February 1, 2026, allowing for more flexible access conditions for system participants [1] - The CIPS system is a crucial financial market infrastructure in China, with a significant increase in cross-border payment volumes, reaching 90.91 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025 [1] - The changes in CIPS rules are expected to attract more global banks and payment institutions, enhancing the global coverage of the Renminbi cross-border payment infrastructure [1] Group 2 - The internationalization of the Renminbi is being advanced through projects like CIPS and mBridge, creating new growth opportunities for fintech companies [2] - Companies involved in cross-border payment services include Newland, New Guodu, and Lakala, which are key targets for investment [5] - Financial IT service providers such as Yuxin Technology, Zhongke Jincai, and others are also highlighted as important players in the cross-border payment ecosystem [6] Group 3 - Qingdao Jinwang and Hailian Jinhui saw significant stock price increases following the announcement of the action plan to enhance CIPS functionality and global network coverage [3] - Companies like Sifang Jingchuang and Xin'an Century are noted for their experience and technology in cross-border payment systems, including CIPS and digital currency solutions [6][7] - Highwei Technology and Jingbeifang have been involved in assisting clients with CIPS system integration and related projects [8][9]