数字人民币DCEP

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黄金漫谈 | 结束的开始,还是开始的结束
新财富· 2025-05-19 07:22
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential shift in the global monetary order, emphasizing the decline of the US dollar's dominance and the rise of alternative currencies, particularly gold and cryptocurrencies, in response to geopolitical and economic changes [3][5][10]. Group 1: Global Monetary Order - Ray Dalio highlights that the current events are not merely about tariffs but signify a collapse of major global monetary, political, and geopolitical orders, which is a rare occurrence in history [3]. - The article suggests that the US is experiencing a shift from "Pax Americana" to "Tax Americana," indicating a return to a gold standard-like system due to the challenges faced by the dollar [5][6]. Group 2: Gold's Future - There is a prevailing narrative that gold is entering a long-term bull market, with predictions of its price reaching between $3,000 and $3,700 per ounce [5]. - A simulation of the potential shift in reserve currencies suggests that if the dollar's global reserve weight decreases from 55% to 30% over ten years, gold prices could soar to $93,000 per ounce [6][14]. Group 3: Cryptocurrencies and Alternatives - The article discusses the potential of decentralized cryptocurrencies and mentions the digital yuan (DCEP) as a significant step towards the internationalization of the Chinese currency [10]. - It raises questions about the future of reserve currencies and suggests that the next dominant currency may not necessarily be gold but could include digital currencies or other alternatives [9][11]. Group 4: Implications for the US - The article critiques the US's reliance on dollar hegemony, suggesting that the current system allows the US to benefit at the expense of other nations, leading to a decline in its manufacturing base [11][13]. - It posits that the multi-polar currency landscape may limit the US's ability to use military intervention as a means of maintaining its financial dominance [13][14].