看似全球支付市场平静无波，实际上暗潮涌动。最新数据显示，美元虽然仍然领先，占比46.94%，不过已经出现了一些动摇的苗头。 欧元保持稳定，份额又升到25.6%左右，而人民币在SWIFT体系里的比例则连续四个月没能突破3%，8月的数据只有2.93%。 一时间，有些人担心人民币国际化是不是遇到阻碍，也有人对那些数字的真实性提出疑问。实际上，这场货币格局的变化，比这些数字看起来要复杂得多。 美霸权依旧 美元到现在依然是全球支付系统里不可动摇的第一货币，大概一半的比例让它稳稳占据着话语权。 不过仔细观察趋势，美元的地位不是稳如泰山。到了今年8月，美元支付比例是46.94%，比几个月前差不多50%的峰值稍微低了一点。特别是在这五个月 里，美元份额总共缩水了2.74个百分点，虽然数值不大，但也能看出背后隐藏的变化。 美元之所以这么稳，背后其实有石油美元制度、全球交易结算的传统，以及美国金融市场的巨大吸引力做支撑。 不过，近段时间，这个根基开始受到影响。美国经常把SWIFT系统当武器，用来惩罚不听话的国家，随便把他们踢出系统。这一招儿让好多经济体开始琢磨 着找别的路子。 再说美元，现在汇率起伏得挺厉害，到了2025年上半年 ...

Group 1 - The core message is that China and Russia have established a bilateral settlement system that relies almost entirely on their own currencies, the yuan and the ruble, effectively sidelining the US dollar in their trade transactions [1][3]. - China has been Russia's largest trading partner for 15 consecutive years, with trade volume reaching $244.819 billion in 2024, and the proportion of trade settled in local currencies has surged from 20% in 2020 to 99.1% [3]. - Both countries have created independent payment channels, with Russian banks joining China's Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) and Chinese banks participating in Russia's System for Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS), eliminating reliance on the Western-controlled SWIFT system [3]. Group 2 - The decision to bypass the dollar is driven by the adverse effects of Western sanctions on Russia, which have restricted its access to dollar assets and payment systems, prompting the need for alternative solutions [5]. - For Chinese companies, settling in local currencies reduces exchange rate risk and transaction costs, with one mechanical export company reporting a 20% reduction in payment cycles and a 15% decrease in costs by using rubles and yuan [5]. - The shift in currency usage is seen as a significant challenge to the dollar's dominance, with the percentage of global oil trade settled in dollars dropping from 80% to 72%, and countries like India and Saudi Arabia increasingly using the yuan for oil transactions [9]. Group 3 - The arrangement provides a "double insurance" for trade between China and Russia, allowing Russia to use yuan earned from energy exports to purchase Chinese goods and issue yuan-denominated bonds, creating a closed loop of "earning yuan - using yuan" [8]. - The yuan has become Russia's second-largest reserve currency after gold, comprising 60% of the National Welfare Fund, and Moscow is emerging as a major offshore yuan trading hub [8]. - This development is part of a broader trend towards currency diversification, promoting a multipolar currency system that offers countries more options in trade, rather than establishing a new currency hegemony [9][11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential shift in the global monetary order, emphasizing the decline of the US dollar's dominance and the rise of alternative currencies, particularly gold and cryptocurrencies, in response to geopolitical and economic changes [3][5][10]. Group 1: Global Monetary Order - Ray Dalio highlights that the current events are not merely about tariffs but signify a collapse of major global monetary, political, and geopolitical orders, which is a rare occurrence in history [3]. - The article suggests that the US is experiencing a shift from "Pax Americana" to "Tax Americana," indicating a return to a gold standard-like system due to the challenges faced by the dollar [5][6]. Group 2: Gold's Future - There is a prevailing narrative that gold is entering a long-term bull market, with predictions of its price reaching between $3,000 and $3,700 per ounce [5]. - A simulation of the potential shift in reserve currencies suggests that if the dollar's global reserve weight decreases from 55% to 30% over ten years, gold prices could soar to $93,000 per ounce [6][14]. Group 3: Cryptocurrencies and Alternatives - The article discusses the potential of decentralized cryptocurrencies and mentions the digital yuan (DCEP) as a significant step towards the internationalization of the Chinese currency [10]. - It raises questions about the future of reserve currencies and suggests that the next dominant currency may not necessarily be gold but could include digital currencies or other alternatives [9][11]. Group 4: Implications for the US - The article critiques the US's reliance on dollar hegemony, suggesting that the current system allows the US to benefit at the expense of other nations, leading to a decline in its manufacturing base [11][13]. - It posits that the multi-polar currency landscape may limit the US's ability to use military intervention as a means of maintaining its financial dominance [13][14].

Group 1 - The core argument revolves around the conflict between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell regarding interest rate cuts, with Trump insisting that the Fed must lower rates to support small businesses, while the Fed maintains its current stance [1][3] - Trump's push for interest rate cuts is linked to the significant trade deficit the U.S. faces, which amounts to $1.2 trillion annually, and the burden of interest payments on national debt, which reached $1.1 trillion last year [3][5] - The debate highlights the tension between U.S. domestic monetary policy and its implications for global confidence in the dollar, raising concerns about the long-term dominance of the dollar in the global economy [3][6] Group 2 - The article discusses the potential shift in investment strategies away from the U.S. dollar, particularly through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative, which aims to invest in infrastructure projects across various regions, thereby reducing reliance on the dollar [5][6] - The establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) under the Belt and Road framework signifies a move towards multi-currency operations, enhancing the role of currencies other than the dollar in international finance [5][6] - The current trend suggests a move towards currency diversification rather than a single currency replacing the dollar, indicating the emergence of a multi-polar currency system [6]