文 ： 华创证券首席经济学家 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 李星宇（18810112501） 前言 美国既袭委内瑞拉、又图格陵兰岛之际，丹麦养老基金宣布将退出美国国债市场，加拿大总理卡尼访华时称已准备迎接"世界新秩序"…… 当今全球，"安全"、"撕裂"和"秩 序"风声鹤唳，旧秩序正逐渐式微，而新秩序建立仍挑战重重 。 不到一年，当初的"狂想"正在一步步变成今天的"现实"、不断印证着我们这篇报告的想法， 我们再次推荐、并重发这篇八个月之前的报告 ，以期给投资者更多启发： 《 黄金"狂想曲"——五种极端情形下的金价推演 》（2025.3.31） 【十年战略看多黄金系列报告】 黄金系列一：20231218-金：百年，十年，明年 黄金系列二：20240531-黄金的"非寻常"定价 而正如我们在2023年12月发布的报告《金：百年，十年，明年》中指出的，" 只要 秩序 、经济、政治、军事变局任一发酵，黄金就可能有新逻辑， 战略级别趋势看多 "；2025 年3月，我们在报告《黄金"狂想曲"——五种极端情形下的金价推演》中再次提示： "全球秩序重构的路径依然可见度较低，中期（5-10年）需战略重 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential shift in the global monetary order, emphasizing the decline of the US dollar's dominance and the rise of alternative currencies, particularly gold and cryptocurrencies, in response to geopolitical and economic changes [3][5][10]. Group 1: Global Monetary Order - Ray Dalio highlights that the current events are not merely about tariffs but signify a collapse of major global monetary, political, and geopolitical orders, which is a rare occurrence in history [3]. - The article suggests that the US is experiencing a shift from "Pax Americana" to "Tax Americana," indicating a return to a gold standard-like system due to the challenges faced by the dollar [5][6]. Group 2: Gold's Future - There is a prevailing narrative that gold is entering a long-term bull market, with predictions of its price reaching between $3,000 and $3,700 per ounce [5]. - A simulation of the potential shift in reserve currencies suggests that if the dollar's global reserve weight decreases from 55% to 30% over ten years, gold prices could soar to $93,000 per ounce [6][14]. Group 3: Cryptocurrencies and Alternatives - The article discusses the potential of decentralized cryptocurrencies and mentions the digital yuan (DCEP) as a significant step towards the internationalization of the Chinese currency [10]. - It raises questions about the future of reserve currencies and suggests that the next dominant currency may not necessarily be gold but could include digital currencies or other alternatives [9][11]. Group 4: Implications for the US - The article critiques the US's reliance on dollar hegemony, suggesting that the current system allows the US to benefit at the expense of other nations, leading to a decline in its manufacturing base [11][13]. - It posits that the multi-polar currency landscape may limit the US's ability to use military intervention as a means of maintaining its financial dominance [13][14].