市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 09 月 25 日 星期四 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】 周三 A 股三大指数集体收涨，截止收盘，沪指收涨 0.83%，深成指收 涨 1.8%，创业板指收涨 2.28%。沪深两市成交额 23264.67 亿元。申 万行业方面，电力设备、电子、传媒领涨，银行、煤炭、通信领跌； 概念板块方面，中芯国际概念、国家大基金持股、BC 电池概念涨幅居 前。港股方面，恒生指数收涨 1.37%，恒生科技指数收涨 2.53%；海 外方面，美国三大指数集体收跌，道指收跌 0.37%，标普 500 收跌 0.28%，纳指收跌 0.33%。 【重要新闻】 【8 部门发文大力发展数字消费共创数字时代美好生活】商务部等 8 部门近日联合印发《关于大力发展数字消费共创数字时代美好生活的 指导意见》，聚焦供需两侧协同发力，从 4 方面提出 14 项任务举措。 一是丰富数字消费领域供给；二是培育壮大数字消费经营主体；三是 优化数字消费支撑体系；四是营造数字消费良好环境。 【9 部门出台 13 条政策 ...

今年以来，商务部认真贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，会同有关部门创新打造"购在中国"标志性扩 消费活动品牌，聚焦精品购物、精致美食、精彩旅游、精美展演，举办精品首发季、服务消费季、千县 万镇新能源汽车消费季等系列专项活动，指导各地因地制宜开展"购在中国"地方站活动，有效激发消费 活力，释放消费潜能。 2025数字消费嘉年华是"购在中国·浙江站"重点活动，是浙江大力发展数字消费的重要举措，期间将举 办数字消费夜市集、"杭城好物·外贸优品"数字消费季、入境消费数字赋能行动等11项活动，打造展贸 一体、数实融合的数字消费生态，全面彰显"购在中国"的消费活力与"数享全球"的创新场景。 9月24日，"购在中国·2025数字消费嘉年华暨杭州数字贸易时尚消费周"启动仪式在杭州举行。商务部副 部长盛秋平出席并致辞。 ...

Core Conclusion - UBS identifies five key long-term investment themes as the best entry points: Digital Consumers, Diversity and Equality, Enabling Technologies, Fintech, and Identifying the Next Frontier [1][2] Investment Themes 1. Digital Consumers - Investment Logic: The younger generation, particularly Gen Z, is reshaping consumption patterns, prioritizing shared experiences over ownership. AI plays a crucial role in transforming traditional sectors like travel and entertainment, alongside emerging areas such as the metaverse and social media [2] - Current Investment Rationale: Ranked first this month due to strong quality metrics, with companies showing robust balance sheets and high returns on invested capital. However, valuations are relatively high due to a focus on growth sectors [2] 2. Diversity and Equality - Investment Logic: Global regulations are increasingly pushing companies to disclose diversity data and reduce disparities. Enhanced diversity is expected to narrow the wealth gap and potentially drive GDP growth over the next decade [3] - Current Investment Rationale: Valuations are reasonable, and quality scores are high. This theme is cross-industry, offering defensive, value, and growth attributes, with strong risk resilience [3] 3. Enabling Technologies - Investment Logic: Generative AI is accelerating technological convergence, with UBS focusing on five categories: AI, AR/VR, big data, 5G, and breakthrough technologies. These technologies are expected to reshape multiple industries, with a high proportion of hardware and software, particularly semiconductors [4] - Current Investment Rationale: Strong momentum and attractive valuations, with a focus on the IT sector, which is currently performing well. The AI market is projected to reach $2.6 trillion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 41% from 2024 [5] 4. Fintech - Investment Logic: Urbanization, demand from younger demographics, and policy support are driving the fintech sector, with revenues expected to grow from $310 billion in 2024 to $580 billion by 2030. Key areas include leading payment companies and emerging technologies like distributed ledgers and AI [6] - Current Investment Rationale: Continuous improvement in momentum aligns with UBS's positive outlook on the U.S. financial sector. After a period of valuation decline, fintech companies are shifting focus from scale to profitability, supported by advancements in AI and a favorable regulatory environment [6] 5. Identifying the Next Frontier - Investment Logic: Emerging and frontier economies are projected to be the main drivers of global GDP growth over the next decade, with over 50% of the population in the top 10 developing economies by 2024. These markets can convert economic growth into corporate profitability [7] - Current Investment Rationale: The appeal of emerging markets is increasing due to the expanding U.S. fiscal deficit and a weakening dollar. Investors are likely to favor these markets for diversification, especially with potential interest rate declines in the second half of the year [7] Short-term Cautions - Gene Therapy & Medical Technology: Currently ranked low in quantitative models, lacking short-term catalysts. The biotech sector faces significant capital constraints, and medical technology companies need to demonstrate profitability and scalability [8] - Smart Mobility: Due to improved valuations and momentum, this theme has been removed from the caution list, with positive developments expected from upcoming industry events [9]