攻坚应变顶压前行 稳中有进向新向优 ——《2025年国民经济和社会发展统计公报》评读 国家统计局副局长 盛来运 2025年是"十四五"规划收官之年，是中国式现代化进程中具有重要意义的一年。面对国内外形势深 刻复杂变化，以习近平同志为核心的党中央领航掌舵、统揽全局，统筹国内国际两个大局，统筹发展和 安全，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，推动 我国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展，"十四五"圆满收官，第二个百年奋斗目标新征程实现良好开局。最 新发布的《2025年国民经济和社会发展统计公报》是一年来非凡发展历程的缩影，镌刻着党中央团结带 领全党全国各族人民迎难而上、砥砺奋进的坚实足迹，反映了中国经济聚力迎变局、斩棘破风浪的宝贵 成果，以权威翔实的数据全景展现中国经济"稳"的格局、"进"的势头、"韧"的特性。 一、攻坚克难促发展，综合国力再上新台阶 事非经过不知难。过去一年，是多重压力交织叠加的一年，也是收获满满、成色十足的一年。从国 际看，外部环境变乱交织，国际经贸格局深度调整，世界经济复苏步履维艰；从国内看，转型调整阵痛 释放，结构性矛盾凸显，保持经济平稳运行难度加大。面 ...

"我的建议提交后，很快得到了来自全国人大和国务院有关部门的高度重视和积极反馈，让我充分 感受到政府对人大代表建议高度重视，近期一系列关于促进服务消费的政策出台实施，也让我很受鼓 舞。"全国人大代表、上海社会科学院党委书记权衡欣慰地告诉记者。 消费是经济增长的主引擎，也是民生幸福的晴雨表。环顾身旁，"公园式"商业街区多了，体验式消 费火了，家附近的烟火气暖了，一系列促消费政策落地见效，离不开权衡等代表委员以及商务部等部门 的共同努力。 权衡注意到，随着人们生活水平的提高，居民消费结构也发生很大变化，消费更多转向提升生活品 质、丰富精神世界、实现自我发展的服务领域，但我国服务业增加值占国内生产总值比重较发达国家偏 低、新型消费和优质消费供给不足、服务消费供需不匹配、政策支持和跨部门协同不足等问题也十分明 显。 在2025年全国两会期间，楼向平结合自身专业和前期调研，指出数字消费还存在基础设施短板、产 品服务供给结构性失衡、制度环境多重制约等痛点堵点，并围绕完善数字消费基础底座、加速多元业态 融合创新、健全数字消费体制机制等提出建议。 "我的意见提出后，商务部的同志很快联系我，共同研究落实，还经常向我反馈工作进展， ...

Group 1: Strategic Importance of Consumption - "Boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand" has become a core national strategy to drive sustainable and high-quality economic development, addressing external challenges and internal structural contradictions[1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes expanding domestic demand as a strategic foundation, reflecting a shift from cyclical policy options to a national strategic task[2] - The contribution of final consumption to GDP has exceeded 50%, indicating that consumption has replaced investment as the main driver of economic growth[2] Group 2: Current Consumption Landscape - The service consumption share has increased to 46.15%, with significant growth in green, smart, and digital consumption[2] - Rural residents' per capita consumption expenditure reached 56.48% of urban levels, indicating a gradual narrowing of the urban-rural consumption gap[2] - The average annual growth rate of per capita disposable income since 2016 has been 6.53%, with per capita disposable income projected to reach 36,200 yuan by 2025[23] Group 3: International Comparisons and Lessons - China's household consumption rate is only 39.1%, ranking among the lowest globally, compared to an average of 56.6% for the world and 52% for middle-income economies[20] - Successful international models highlight the importance of institutional guarantees, income foundations, supply innovation, and expectation management in boosting consumption[3] - Japan's "lost three decades" and Germany's stable employment and social security systems provide valuable lessons for creating a consumption-friendly environment[3] Group 4: Policy Recommendations and Risks - The report suggests a policy framework focusing on enhancing consumer capacity on the demand side and fostering new supply on the supply side, targeting areas like AI+ consumption and green consumption[4] - Risks include potential underperformance of policy measures and uncertainties in the capital market, which could hinder consumption growth[4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the diverse growth in China's consumption market by 2025, driven by various government policies aimed at stimulating consumer demand [4] Group 2 - The retail sales revenue for daily household appliances, kitchenware, and communication devices is projected to grow by 17.4%, 12.9%, and 18.6% respectively in 2025 [1] - The sales volume and revenue of new energy passenger vehicles are expected to increase by 24.3% and 21.1% respectively in 2025 [1] - The sales revenue for cultural and tourism services is anticipated to rise, with artistic performances increasing by 17.3%, travel agency services by 11.2%, scenic spots by 26.1%, and leisure activities by 14.6% [1] - Internet life service platforms and food delivery services are projected to see sales revenue growth of 9.4% and 13.3% respectively, while digital cultural services are expected to grow by 16.6% [1] Group 3 - The sports and health industry is experiencing strong consumer demand, with sports exhibition services and consulting services expected to grow by 12.2% and 27.8% respectively [2] - Health-related services, including health consulting and wellness services, are projected to grow by 11.7%, 12%, and 16.5% respectively [2] Group 4 - The aging population is driving demand for elderly care services, with growth rates of 24.9%, 23.1%, and 15.4% for elderly care, social assistance, and nursing home services respectively [2] - Childcare services are also expected to grow, with nursery services projected to increase by 5.4% [2] Group 5 - The expansion of the departure tax refund system is enhancing inbound consumption, with the number of travelers benefiting from tax refunds increasing by 305% and the sales of tax refund goods rising by 95.9% [3] - The number of tax refund stores has reached 12,930, with over 7,000 offering "buy and refund" services [3] - Cross-province recognition of tax refund services is being implemented, promoting greater international consumer resource flow and regional economic collaboration [3]

Economic Overview - In 2025, China's GDP reached 140.19 trillion yuan, achieving a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, successfully meeting annual expectations [3] - The growth occurred amidst global economic challenges, with major economies like the US, Eurozone, and Japan experiencing lower growth rates [3] - China's service sector contributed 61.4% to economic growth, highlighting the ongoing optimization of the industrial structure [3] Structural Optimization - New productive forces are becoming the core driver of China's economic growth, with significant increases in value-added from equipment manufacturing (9.2%) and high-tech manufacturing (9.4%) [4] - The digital economy is thriving, with online retail sales of physical goods growing by 5.2%, accounting for 26.1% of total retail sales [4] - High-tech product exports increased by 13.2%, indicating a successful transition from "Made in China" to "Created in China" [4] Policy Coordination - The Chinese government has implemented proactive macroeconomic policies to stimulate market vitality, including a moderately loose monetary policy [5][6] - Despite a 3.8% decline in fixed asset investment, investment in high-tech industries and livelihood sectors remained stable [5] Living Standards - In 2025, the per capita disposable income reached 43,377 yuan, reflecting a nominal growth of 5.0%, which aligns with economic growth [7] - The average urban unemployment rate was 5.2%, indicating stable employment conditions [7] - The Engel coefficient decreased to 29.3%, suggesting an improvement in living standards [7] Domestic and External Demand - Retail sales of consumer goods reached 50.12 trillion yuan, growing by 3.7%, with service retail showing robust growth [8] - Total import and export volume was 45.47 trillion yuan, with exports growing by 6.1% and imports by 0.5% [8] - Private enterprises accounted for 57.3% of total trade, reflecting a diversification in trade [8] Global Positioning - China's economic performance in 2025 is significant amid global economic disparities, providing a stabilizing force in international trade [10] - The country is committed to high-level opening up and reform, enhancing its competitive edge and creating new growth opportunities for global enterprises [10] Future Outlook - Despite external shocks and internal challenges, China's economic fundamentals remain strong, with ongoing technological innovation driving industrial upgrades [11] - The manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1, indicating a return to expansion, suggesting a buildup of internal economic momentum [11] - China's economy is positioned as a reliable stabilizer in the global landscape, contributing to global growth amidst uncertainties [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that digital consumption is becoming a significant engine for economic growth in China, with the overall scale exceeding 23.8 trillion yuan since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan, maintaining its position as the world's largest online retail market for 13 consecutive years [1] - The integration of new technologies such as artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and the Internet of Things with consumer scenarios is driving the rapid growth of new consumption dynamics [1] - The demand for digital consumption is accelerating, leading to the emergence of numerous new products and services, enriching digital life scenarios and experiences [1] Group 2 - Digital consumption is significantly contributing to expanding domestic demand and optimizing the supply chain, while also driving multiple transformations in economic development, providing sustained momentum for high-quality development [2] - By 2025, the added value of the digital product manufacturing industry is expected to grow by 9.3%, and the information transmission, software, and information technology service industry is projected to grow by 11.1% [2] - There is a strong demand for convenient digital living in rural areas, with 249 million rural digital consumption users, indicating a need to enhance digital consumption infrastructure in these regions [2] Group 3 - The trend of consumption upgrading is irreversible, highlighting the need to leverage China's vast domestic market and population to stimulate digital consumption potential [3] - Continuous improvement of the digital consumption development environment is essential, relying on technological innovation and enhanced policy support [3] - The focus should be on strengthening service consumption to better meet domestic consumption upgrade demands and the growing needs of the population for a better life [2][3]

Group 1: Core Insights - The State Council emphasizes the need to implement consumption-boosting actions to enhance residents' consumption power and drive economic growth [1][2] - The meeting highlights the importance of developing new growth points in service consumption, focusing on quality service supply and addressing issues related to credit, standards, and safety management [2][3] - The government plans to establish a long-term mechanism for promoting consumption, including the formulation of the "14th Five-Year" plan for expanding consumption and increasing urban and rural residents' income [3] Group 2: Specific Measures - The government aims to accelerate the development of digital consumption and quality e-commerce, promoting new technologies such as artificial intelligence and autonomous driving to create high-growth consumption sectors [3] - There is a strong focus on cleaning up overdue enterprise payments and ensuring the payment of migrant workers' wages, which are crucial for protecting corporate rights and public interests [4] - The meeting also discusses the need to revise and abolish certain administrative regulations to enhance the quality and effectiveness of government legislation [4] Group 3: Economic Context - The transition towards carbon emission control is highlighted as a significant future challenge, with the carbon market expansion expected to drive energy-saving and carbon-reduction transformations in key industries [5]

Core Insights - The Chinese digital consumption market is experiencing significant growth, with e-commerce transactions expected to reach 46.4 trillion yuan in 2024, maintaining its position as the world's largest online retail market for 12 consecutive years [1] - The market is shifting from user scale expansion to value extraction, focusing on existing users rather than acquiring new ones [2][3] - The integration of online and offline sales channels is becoming more pronounced, with instant retail emerging as a key driver of this trend [5][6] - Artificial intelligence is playing a crucial role in reshaping the consumer experience, enhancing personalization and operational efficiency [8][9] - Rural areas are becoming vital for digital consumption growth, with increasing internet penetration and a rising number of online consumers [10][11] - The focus is shifting from product consumption to service-oriented and green consumption, reflecting changing consumer preferences and environmental awareness [12][13][14] Group 1: Market Overview - In 2024, China's e-commerce retail sales are projected to account for 47% of total retail sales, significantly higher than in developed countries [2] - The digital consumption user base is expected to exceed 958 million by mid-2025, representing 85.3% of internet users [2] Group 2: Trends in Digital Consumption - The development model is transitioning from user scale expansion to deep value extraction from existing users, with live commerce and content commerce leading this change [3] - Instant retail is blurring the lines between online and offline shopping, with a projected market size of 781 billion yuan in 2024 [5][6] Group 3: Technological Advancements - AI technology is rapidly advancing in China, with significant improvements in model performance and application across various sectors [8] - AI is transforming the consumer journey, enabling personalized recommendations and automating service processes [9] Group 4: Rural Market Dynamics - Rural internet users are growing, with 322 million rural internet users by mid-2025, representing 28.7% of total internet users [10] - The rural market is becoming a new growth source for online consumption, with a significant increase in express delivery services to rural areas [11] Group 5: Consumption Shifts - Digital service consumption is on the rise, with online education and internet healthcare seeing substantial user growth [13] - Green consumption is gaining traction, with a notable increase in second-hand e-commerce transactions and a shift towards sustainable purchasing behaviors [14]

Core Insights - Digital consumption is increasingly contributing to overall consumption growth in China, driven by technological advancements, innovative product models, and changing consumer demands [1][2][4] Group 1: Digital Consumption Trends - The proportion of online retail sales of physical goods has risen from 10.8% a decade ago to an expected 26.8% in 2024 [1] - The digital consumer base is expanding across age, gender, and regional boundaries, with significant participation from the "Z generation" and the elderly [1][5] - By mid-2025, the digital consumption amount in China is projected to reach 9.37 trillion yuan, accounting for 46.5% of total household consumption expenditure [4] Group 2: User Demographics and Behavior - As of June 2025, the number of digital consumption users has surpassed 958 million, with the "Z generation" accounting for 27.2% of this group [5] - The "Z generation" shows a high engagement with digital services, with 71.4% using generative AI, significantly higher than the overall internet user rate [5] - The elderly demographic is also becoming a significant force in digital consumption, with 71.7% willing to pay for convenient online products and services [6] Group 3: Market Growth and Innovations - The digital economy's core industry value added reached 14.08 trillion yuan in 2024, growing by over 10% year-on-year [7] - The integration of AI in consumer products is expected to enhance market penetration, with AI smartphones and PCs projected to exceed 50% and 80% penetration rates, respectively, in the next three years [7] - The growth of digital services is evident in sectors like healthcare, with internet hospitals increasing from about 1,600 in 2021 to 3,340 by the end of 2024 [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - The digital consumption landscape is evolving with new consumption patterns, including online-offline integration and immersive experiences [1][2] - Emerging consumption trends such as digital and green consumption are expected to further stimulate overall consumption growth [8]

Core Insights - Digital consumption is increasingly contributing to overall consumption growth in China, driven by technological advancements, innovative product models, and changing consumer demands [1][2][4] Group 1: Digital Consumption Trends - The proportion of online retail sales of physical goods has risen from 10.8% a decade ago to an expected 26.8% in 2024 [1] - The digital consumer base is expanding across age, gender, and geographic boundaries, with significant participation from the "Z generation" and the elderly [1][5] - By mid-2025, digital consumption is projected to reach 9.37 trillion yuan, accounting for 46.5% of total household consumption expenditure [4] Group 2: User Demographics and Behavior - As of June 2025, the number of digital consumers in China surpassed 958 million, with the "Z generation" accounting for 27.2% of this group [5] - The "Z generation" shows a high engagement with smart products, with 59.3% having purchased smart devices online, and a notable 71.4% using generative AI services [5] - The elderly demographic is also becoming a significant force in digital consumption, with 71.7% willing to pay for convenient online services [6] Group 3: Market Growth and Innovations - The digital economy's core industries are expected to see a value increase of 13.3 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate exceeding 10% [7] - The integration of AI in consumer products is leading to significant upgrades in smart devices, with projections indicating that AI smartphones and PCs will achieve over 50% and 80% market penetration, respectively, in the next three years [7] - The healthcare sector is rapidly expanding its digital services, with internet hospitals increasing from around 1,600 in 2021 to 3,340 by the end of 2024 [7]