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劲仔食品(003000):Q2业绩短期承压,期待新品、新渠道表现
Huafu Securities· 2025-09-02 08:33
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 20% in stock price compared to the market benchmark index within the next six months [16]. Core Views - The company reported a slight decline in revenue for the first half of 2025, with total revenue of 1.12 billion yuan, down 0.50% year-on-year, and a net profit of 112 million yuan, down 21.86% year-on-year [2][3]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw a more significant decline, with revenue of 528 million yuan, down 10.37% year-on-year, and a net profit of 44 million yuan, down 36.27% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company is focusing on high-potential product innovation and exploring new channels, particularly in overseas markets, to drive future growth despite current pressures [4][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, revenue by product category was as follows: fish products at 757 million yuan (+7.61%), poultry products at 196 million yuan (-24.00%), bean products at 115 million yuan (+3.61%), and vegetable products at 34 million yuan (-10.69%) [3]. - Online sales decreased by 6.82% to 185 million yuan, while offline sales increased by 0.85% to 939 million yuan [3]. - The company experienced a gross margin of 28.93% in Q2 2025, a decrease of 1.83 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to declining margins in vegetable, fish, and poultry products [4]. - The total operating expenses increased, leading to a decline in profit margins, with a net profit margin of 8.41% in Q2 2025, down 3.42 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been revised downwards, with expected net profits of 250 million yuan and 326 million yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 14% for 2025 and an increase of 30% for 2026 [4][6]. - The report introduces a 2027 profit forecast of 400 million yuan, with corresponding EPS estimates of 0.56, 0.72, and 0.89 yuan per share for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][6].