休闲食品 | | | 2025-03-29 2、《收入增速承压，成本红利延续》 2024-10-24 劲仔食品（003000.SZ） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 08 月 27 日 执业证书编号：S0740519080002 Email：xiongxw@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(百万股) | 450.89 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 300.39 | | 市价(元) | 13.32 | | 市值(百万元) | 6,005.91 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 4,001.24 | 新品新渠道加速拓展，业绩短期承压 ——劲仔食品 2025 年半年报点评 股价与行业-市场走势对比 事件：公司发布 2025 年半年报。25H1，公司实现营业收入 11.24 亿元（同比-0.50%）， 归母净利润 1.12 亿元（同比-21.86%），扣非净利润 0.87 亿元（同比-28.94%）。其 中 25Q2，公司实现营业收入 5.28 亿元（同比-10.37%），归母净利润 0.44 亿元（同 比-36.27%），扣非净利润 0.34 亿元（同比- ...

事件：公司发布2025 年半年度报告，25H1 实现营收11.24 亿元，同比-0.50%，实现归母净利1.12 亿 元，同比-21.86%，实现扣非归母净利0.87亿元，同比-28.94%。25Q2 实现营业收入5.28 亿元，同比增 长-10.37%，实现归母净利0.44 亿元，同比-36.27%，实现扣非归母净利0.34 亿元，同比-47.49%。 净利率同比下滑。25Q2 归母净利率为8.41%，同比-3.42pct，扣非归母净利率为6.36%，同比-4.50pct。 加强研发创新，产品矩阵持续拓展，深化全渠道覆盖。公司聚焦"好吃健康"的产品战略，围绕三减、零 添加和富营养素等方向持续推动产品升级，深海鳀鱼、无抗鹌鹑蛋、零添加酱干等产品契合消费者对健 康零食的升级需求，此外公司不断拓展产品矩阵，推出了魔芋京门爆肚、脆卤花生等新品。渠道方面持 续深化全渠道布局，零食渠道积极合作头部系统保持高速增长，传统渠道提升运营效率，不断优化渠道 质量，积极开拓高端会员店等新渠道，海外市场拓展成效显著，25H1 境外营收0.13 亿元，同比 +40.10%，保持高速增长。 投资建议：我们预计公司2025-2027 年 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the transformation of consumer demand from "pleasing others" to "self-pleasing," indicating a structural change in consumption patterns that favors new consumption trends over traditional ones [4][9] - The report identifies three main lines of investment focus: new demand, new products, and new channels, suggesting that companies that can quickly adapt to these changes will outperform in the market [4][6] - The report highlights the government's ongoing efforts to stimulate consumption through various policies, which are expected to enhance consumer confidence and income, leading to a gradual recovery in the consumption market [7][8] Group 2 - New demand is characterized by a focus on cost-effectiveness, emotional value, and health consciousness among consumers, driven by generational differences in spending intentions [4][14][23] - The report notes that health-oriented products are gaining traction, with companies innovating in healthy snacks and beverages to meet rising consumer expectations for health benefits [28][36] - The emergence of new sales channels, such as bulk snack stores and membership-based supermarkets, is reshaping the retail landscape, allowing companies to better meet consumer demands for quality and convenience [57][63] Group 3 - The report discusses the rapid growth of the bulk snack store sector, which has become the leading channel for snack sales in China, reflecting a shift in consumer shopping habits [57][59] - Membership-based supermarkets are also highlighted as a growing trend, providing high-quality products at competitive prices, which appeals to consumers seeking value [63][66] - Traditional supermarkets are undergoing significant transformations to adapt to the competitive landscape, with successful case studies demonstrating substantial sales increases following strategic adjustments [69][70]

Core Insights - The snack industry is rapidly transitioning towards health-oriented and premium products, with flavored fish snacks emerging as a key indicator of consumer upgrade and health food trends [1] - Jinzhai Food has successfully navigated the challenges of the low-end snack market by increasing R&D investment and leveraging digital technology, establishing itself as a leader in the fish snack segment [1][2] Group 1: R&D Investment and Innovation - Jinzhai Food emphasizes R&D investment to drive technological innovation, aiming to break free from the low-end price competition that plagues the snack industry [2] - The company has established multiple research platforms, including a postdoctoral innovation practice base and a health snack engineering technology research center, to develop healthy snack products with high-quality protein and reduced additives [2][3] - Jinzhai Food has over 70 industry-leading technologies and has received multiple awards from the China Food Industry Association from 2020 to 2024 [3] Group 2: Digital Technology and Supply Chain - The application of digital technology has been crucial for Jinzhai Food in restructuring its supply chain and enhancing product value [4] - The company has implemented a comprehensive information system covering all processes from raw material procurement to end delivery, achieving industry-leading levels of quality data information [5] - Digital systems are utilized in various products, ensuring strict quality control and enhancing nutritional retention during production [5] Group 3: Financial Performance and Shareholder Returns - Jinzhai Food reported a revenue of 2.412 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.79%, and a net profit of 291 million yuan, up 39.01% [6] - The company has a strong commitment to shareholder returns, with a proposed cash dividend of 3 yuan per 10 shares, amounting to 1.79 billion yuan for the year, which is 61% of the net profit [6][7] - Since its IPO, Jinzhai Food has distributed over 590 million yuan in dividends, significantly exceeding its initial fundraising of 160 million yuan [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][6] Core Viewpoints - The company achieved a revenue of 595 million yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.27%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 8.21% to 68 million yuan, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses fell by 8.61% to 53 million yuan [2] - The offline channel expansion is progressing well, with significant growth in snack specialty channels and stable growth in circulation channels. The online channel experienced a slight decline, but traditional e-commerce and content e-commerce showed improvement [3] - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 29.91%, a slight decrease of 0.11 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin attributable to shareholders was 11.34%, down 2.28 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The snack food industry continues to benefit from emerging channels such as snack specialty stores and membership supermarkets, which are driving alpha growth despite overall weak consumption [5] Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenue for 2025 to be 2.758 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 14.4%. The net profit is projected to be 328 million yuan, reflecting a 12.6% increase [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025 have been adjusted to 0.73 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 18, 16, and 14 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6][10]

Core Insights - The snack industry has seen significant revenue growth, driven by new product launches and channel restructuring, including social e-commerce and discount stores [1][2] - Despite revenue growth, snack companies are facing challenges in maintaining profitability, with fluctuating sales expenses and gross margins [1][8] Revenue Growth Drivers - Major snack companies reported substantial revenue figures for 2024, with Three Squirrels leading at 10.622 billion, followed by other companies like Liangpinpuzi and Qiaqia Foods [2] - New product development has been highlighted as a key contributor to revenue, with Three Squirrels launching over 20 new products that achieved significant sales [3][4] Channel Expansion - The restructuring of sales channels has provided new opportunities for snack companies, with a focus on e-commerce and discount stores [5][6] - Three Squirrels reported an 81.73% increase in revenue from Douyin, indicating the effectiveness of digital marketing strategies [4] International Market Growth - Companies are increasingly targeting international markets, particularly Southeast Asia, to expand their growth potential [6][7] - Qiaqia Foods and other companies have reported significant growth in overseas sales, with Qiaqia's overseas revenue increasing by approximately 90% [6] Profitability Challenges - Many snack companies have experienced rising sales expenses, with increases ranging from 15.55% to 50.92%, primarily due to higher advertising costs [8][9] - Gross margins have shown volatility, with some companies reporting declines due to rising raw material costs and competitive pricing strategies [10] Dividend Distribution - Several companies have announced substantial cash dividends, reflecting confidence in their operational performance and future growth [11][12] - The total cash dividends and share buybacks for some companies represent a significant portion of their net profits, indicating a strong commitment to returning value to shareholders [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's brand influence continues to rise, with a focus on breakthroughs in new channels [1] - The company achieved a revenue of 2.412 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.79%, and a net profit of 291 million yuan, up 39.01% year-on-year [7] - The report emphasizes the company's strategic clarity and commitment to product quality, focusing on fish, egg, and bean categories, while expanding modern channels through large packaging upgrades [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2023: 2.065 billion yuan, 2024: 2.412 billion yuan, 2025E: 2.788 billion yuan, 2026E: 3.207 billion yuan, 2027E: 3.687 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 41.3%, 16.8%, 15.6%, 15.1%, and 15.0% [6][8] - The net profit forecast for 2025 is 331 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 13.6% [6][8] - The report indicates a projected PE ratio of 16x for 2025, 14x for 2026, and 11x for 2027, reflecting the company's long-term growth potential [7] Product and Channel Performance - In 2024, the revenue breakdown by product category was as follows: fish products: 1.533 billion yuan (up 18.8%), poultry products: 509 million yuan (up 12.7%), bean products: 247 million yuan (up 13.9%), and vegetable products: 79 million yuan (up 9.6%) [7] - The company plans to enhance its offline distribution channel advantages and improve brand strength, particularly focusing on high-end products like deep-sea fish [7] - The report notes that online channel revenue decreased by 6.2% year-on-year, accounting for 16.2% of total revenue in 2024 [7] Cost and Profitability - The company achieved a gross margin of 30.47% in 2024, an increase of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to cost reductions and scale advantages [7] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 12.17%, up 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The report anticipates short-term pressure on profitability in 2025, but expects an overall improvement later in the year based on cost trends and revenue performance [7]