魔芋等创新产品上新提速，胖东来验证健 康标签 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预测公司 2025–2027 年 EPS 分别为 0.74/ 0.84/ 1.00 元（原 25/26 年预测值为 0.79/0.98 元）下调 25–26 年盈利预测，主要反映以下两点：一是 2025Q1 业绩短 期承压，毛利率略降而销售及财务费用率同比提升，显示费用投放节奏相对前置； 二是公司持续加码新品研发、品牌投入与渠道深化（如胖东来、高端会员店等）， 短期内对盈利形成阶段性扰动。考虑长期成长逻辑未改，参考可比公司估值水平， 给予公司 2025 年 20 倍 PE，对应目标价 14.8 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 居民消费力不及预期；行业竞争加剧风险；渠道拓展不及预期风险；原材料价格波动等 风险等。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 2,065 | 2,412 | 2,816 | 3,248 | 3,713 | | 同比增长 (%) | 4 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 05 月 12 日 | 市场数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | 上证指数 | 3342.00 | -0.30 | | 深证成指 | 10126.83 | -0.69 | | 创业板指 | 2011.77 | -0.87 | | 科创 50 | 1006.32 | -1.96 | | 北证 50 | 1379.31 | -0.12 | | 沪深 300 | 3846.16 | -0.17 | A 股市场概览 | 类别 | 总市值 | 流通市 | 市盈率 | 市净率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (亿元) | 值(亿元) | PE | PB | | 上证指数 | 642568 | 502140 | 11.78 | 1.22 | | 深证成指 | 215145 | 182314 | 19.80 | 2.09 | | 创业板指 | 56534 | 44740 | 26.34 | 3.66 | | 科创 50 | 34758 | 22722 | 55.31 | 4.19 | | 北 ...

青岛啤酒：拟收购即墨黄酒100%股权，销售淡旺季上可形成互补效应 酒业 贵州茅台：张艺兴成为茅台文旅代言人 5月7日，贵州茅台官方微博发布消息，宣布张艺兴成为茅台文旅代言人。 5月7日，青岛啤酒发布关于收购山东即墨黄酒厂有限公司100%股权的公告。披露为增强产业协同性及企业发展竞争 力，青岛啤酒股份有限公司与新华锦集团有限公司、山东鲁锦进出口集团有限公司及山东即墨黄酒厂有限公司签订 《股权转让协议》，本公司拟从新华锦集团和鲁锦集团处受让其合计持有的即墨黄酒 100%股权，相关对价为人民币 66,500 万元和价格调整期损益金额之和。本次股权收购交易完成交割后，本公司将持有即墨黄酒全部股权，即墨黄酒 成为本公司的全资子公司，纳入公司合并报表范围。公告称，公司坚持以创新驱动高质量发展，通过本次股权收购持 有即墨黄酒 100%股权，公司积极拓展非啤酒业务跨产业布局，推动多元化发展，为公司未来带来新的发展契机。即 墨黄酒与本公司同属发酵酒类行业，随着即墨黄酒的加入，将进一步丰富本公司产品线，拓宽市场渠道，为广大消费 者提供更加多元化的选择。在品牌及产品宣传推广、销售网络与渠道等方面与公司现有优势市场和资源进行协同，进 ...

劲仔食品集团股份有限公司 投资者调研接待记录表 证券代码：003000 证券简称：劲仔食品 编号：2025-003 | | □特定对象调研 □分析师会议 □媒体采访 | | --- | --- | | 投资者关系活动类别 | ☑业绩说明会 □新闻发布会 ☑路演活动 | | | □现场参观 □其他 | | 参与单位名称及人 | 参与公司 2024 年度暨 2025 年第一季度业绩说明会的网上 | | 员姓名 | 投的网上投资者 | | 时间 | 2025 年 5 月 8 日 15：00-17:00 | | 地点 | 公司会议室 | | | 董事长、总经理：周劲松 董事、副总经理、董事会秘书：丰文姬 | | 公司接待人员姓名 | 副总经理、财务总监：康厚峰 独立董事：陈慧敏 | | | 保荐代表人：李晓东 | | | 公司于 2025 年 5 月 8 日 15:00—17:00，通过"全景• | | | 路演天下"（http://rs.p5w.net）及深圳证券交易所的"互 | | | 动 易 " 平 台 " 云 访 谈 " 栏 目 （ 网 址 ： | | | http://irm.cninfo.com.cn）采 ...

面对年消费额超万亿美元的全球休闲零食市场，国产品牌如何突破同质化竞争桎梏，打破"低端、低 质、低价"的固有印象？劲仔食品（003000）集团股份有限公司（以下简称"劲仔食品"）以二十载深耕 之道，通过加大研发投入与数字化技术，交出了一份成功突围的答卷。 从岳阳平江的小作坊起步，到稳坐鱼类零食细分品类头把交椅；从攻克海洋鱼类保鲜锁鲜技术难题，到 首创年销售额突破15亿元级别的大单品"深海鳀鱼"，这家农业产业化国家重点龙头企业构建起覆盖原料 溯源、风味研发、智能生产的创新矩阵，彰显着中国零食企业的智造力量。 劲仔食品如何突破低端零食低价内卷的市场格局？传统卤味如何焕发国潮新生？近日，《证券日报》记 者通过探访劲仔食品的智能化生产中心与食品研究院，解码这家企业从"一元零食"跃升至"国民品牌"的 成长密码。 随着休闲零食行业加速向健康化与高端化转型，风味小鱼制品作为"国民零食"，正成为消费升级与健康 食品的风向标。 重构供应链体系 在重视研发投入的同时，数字技术的广泛应用成为劲仔食品重构供应链和提升产品价值的一大法宝。 在劲仔食品位于岳阳平江的智慧工厂中央控制室内，《证券日报》记者看到，电子屏上跳动着生产排 程、库存 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 600 million yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 8.2% to 70 million yuan, indicating pressure on profitability despite revenue growth [1][2]. Product Dimension - The company focuses on core product categories such as fish, eggs, and beans, aiming to create healthier snack foods and continuously upgrading product quality [1]. - The brand recognition of the company's small fish products is strong, with current promotions for deep-sea anchovies expected to enhance brand strength [1]. - In the quail egg sector, the company leads the industry with its soft-boiled quail eggs, driving structural upgrades in the market [1]. - The company differentiates its bean products through short-shelf-life bean curd, establishing a competitive edge [1]. Channel Dimension - The company has significantly enhanced its sales system, upgrading traditional channels and focusing on high-quality store selections, display enhancements, and promotional investments [1]. - The company has expanded its collaboration with over 100 snack systems, covering more than 35,000 terminals, and is exporting to over 40 overseas markets [1]. Financial Performance - The net profit margin decreased by 2.3 percentage points to 11.3% due to cost pressures and reduced foreign exchange gains [2]. - The gross profit margin slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 29.9%, while the sales expense ratio increased by 0.2 percentage points to 13.4% [2]. - The company is actively developing anchovy resources globally to strengthen its supply chain and ensure core raw material supply [2]. Growth Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 17.7%, 14.7%, and 13.3% from 2025 to 2027, reaching 2.84 billion, 3.26 billion, and 3.69 billion yuan respectively [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow by 14.1%, 16.4%, and 13.7% during the same period, reaching 330 million, 390 million, and 440 million yuan respectively [2]. - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on its product expansion and channel growth potential [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 600 million yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.3%, despite a 12-day shift in the Spring Festival [1]. - The decline in net profit by 8.2% year-on-year is attributed to cost pressures and reduced foreign exchange gains, leading to a net profit margin decrease of 2.3 percentage points to 11.3% [2]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its core product categories and expanding its market channels, which is expected to support continued strong performance [2]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are expected to grow by 17.7%, 14.7%, and 13.3%, reaching 2.84 billion, 3.26 billion, and 3.69 billion yuan respectively [3]. - The net profit for the same period is projected to increase by 14.1%, 16.4%, and 13.7%, reaching 330 million, 390 million, and 440 million yuan respectively [3]. - The company’s gross margin is forecasted to be 29.9% in Q1 2025, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.1 percentage points [2]. Product and Channel Strategy - The company is focusing on health-oriented snack foods in the fish, egg, and bean categories, with a strong emphasis on product quality upgrades [1]. - The company has expanded its sales system significantly, enhancing traditional channel operations and entering over 40 overseas markets [1][2]. - The company is actively promoting deep-sea anchovies and leading the quail egg industry with its soft-boiled quail eggs, aiming to strengthen brand recognition [1].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a mixed performance in Q1 2025, with revenue growth but a decline in net profit, indicating potential challenges in profitability despite revenue increases [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 595 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.26% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 68 million yuan, down 8.21% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 53 million yuan, a decrease of 8.61% [1]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 29.91%, a decline of 0.11 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising costs of raw materials [2]. - The company’s expense ratio increased to 19.01%, up 1.68 percentage points year-on-year, with sales expenses at 13.36%, management expenses at 4.05%, R&D expenses at 1.98%, and financial expenses at -0.37% [2]. - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 11.34%, down 2.28 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin excluding non-recurring items was 8.96%, a decrease of 1.85 percentage points [2]. Growth Drivers - The company is focusing on channel expansion through fast-growing avenues such as snack wholesale, membership stores, and e-commerce, with product innovation expected to drive growth [2]. - Key products like quail eggs, soft-boiled quail eggs, and short-shelf-life tofu are being pushed for wider distribution, which is anticipated to contribute to revenue growth [2]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 2.896 billion, 3.436 billion, and 4.083 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 20.08%, 18.63%, and 18.85% respectively [3]. - Expected net profits for the same period are 316 million, 372 million, and 443 million yuan, with growth rates of 8.53%, 17.61%, and 19.11% respectively [3]. - The projected price-to-earnings ratios for 2025-2027 are 18.4, 15.6, and 13.1 times [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes the importance of healthy competition in the industry and aims to strengthen brand barriers, enhance R&D innovation, and accelerate international expansion [1][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's total revenue reached 2.412 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.79%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 291 million, up 39.01% [3][5]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.3 per share, which exceeds 60% of its net profit, higher than the industry average [7]. Market Competition - The chairman noted that the market for quail eggs is becoming increasingly competitive, with many companies entering the sector, leading to price competition [3]. - The company intends to combat high-similarity products through legal means and has successfully handled related cases recently [3]. Product Development - The company plans to launch a new brand of soybean products by May 2025 to further diversify its product matrix [3]. - The company has established a technical barrier in producing soft-boiled quail eggs, a capability that is currently unmatched globally [3]. International Expansion - In 2024, the company's overseas revenue nearly doubled, surpassing 30 million, with a focus on Southeast Asia, Japan, South Korea, and Europe [7]. - The company anticipates that the growth rate of its overseas market will exceed that of the domestic market by 2025 [8].

证券 研究报告 | 行业 定期报告 2024 年 11 月 11 日 签约客户可长按扫码阅读报告 近期政策预期导致板块波动，但中长期来看，白酒三季报集中释放风险后，板 块拐点已经确立，从市场的边际放缓预期（杀估值）调整至边际改善预期（提估 值），食品部分公司逐渐从调整中走出，叠加春节旺季带动，四季度增长继续环比 改善，有望超市场预期。三季报后10-11月初消化三季度利空基础上，在政策底基础 上形成了一个预期底，考虑到近年来旺季的脉冲效应+今年春节较早，产业有望复刻 去年，在低预期的基础上实现全面超预期。 最新观点 核心公司跟踪：茅台宣布中期分红，甘源股东计划减持 贵州茅台 ：公司发布2024年中期利润分配方案公告，每股派发现金红利23.882元（含税），合计拟派发现金股利 300亿元（含税） 甘源食品 ：股东严海雁先生（现任公司副董事长、董事）持有公司561.34万股（占剔除回购股份后总股本 6.13%）计划以集中竞价或大宗交易方式减持本公司股份不超过91.61万股（占剔除回购股份后总股本1%） 投资建议：政策博弈导致短期波动，但长期拐点或已经确立 近期政策预期导致板块波动，但中长期来看，白酒三季报集中释放风 ...