Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in large-denomination certificate of deposit (CD) interest rates, with many banks offering rates below 1% for one-year and shorter products, while a substantial amount of deposits, approximately 75 trillion yuan, is set to mature in 2026, leading to a "deposit migration" trend among savers [3][10]. Group 1: Interest Rate Trends - Large-denomination CD rates are rapidly entering the "0% era," with most banks' new one-year and shorter products falling below 1%, and three-year rates generally below 2% [3][4]. - The trend towards shorter-term products is evident, with five-year options nearly disappearing, and some banks raising minimum deposit requirements to 1 million yuan [4][6]. - The average interest rates for various terms have dropped significantly, with the average rate for three-month deposits at 0.944% and one-year deposits at 1.277% as of September 2025 [8]. Group 2: Deposit Maturity and Migration - An estimated 75 trillion yuan of residential fixed-term deposits will mature in 2026, with a notable increase in the amount maturing compared to 2025 [10][11]. - Many savers are opting to transfer their funds from large banks to smaller banks, which typically offer slightly higher rates, rather than moving to equity markets [11][12]. - Younger savers are creatively splitting their deposits among different banks to take advantage of promotional offers, likening it to a game [12]. Group 3: Bank Strategies to Retain Deposits - In response to the pressure of deposit outflows, banks are launching various initiatives to retain funds, including temporarily raising interest rates to around 2% and enhancing customer service through personalized strategies [13][14]. - Some banks are offering promotional products with rates above 2% to attract new customers, while others are implementing pre-reminder mechanisms and tailored renewal plans for existing customers [16][17]. - The focus has shifted from merely selling products to deepening customer relationships and providing precise recommendations based on competitive analysis of deposit rates [17].

Core Viewpoint - The release of a significant amount of household deposits in 2026, coupled with a trend of structural interest rate cuts by the central bank, is leading to a critical juncture for fund reallocation in the banking sector [1][5]. Group 1: Deposit Trends - By the first quarter of 2026, the maturity scale of household one-year and above fixed deposits is expected to reach 29 trillion yuan, with an estimated total of 75 trillion yuan for the entire year [1]. - Despite the decline in new deposit rates, many depositors prefer to keep their funds within the banking system, indicating a trend of "internal circulation" rather than a significant shift to wealth management or capital markets [1][2]. Group 2: Bank Strategies - Commercial banks are shifting from a passive defense strategy to an active approach in retaining deposits, with varying strategies among different types of banks [3][4]. - State-owned banks focus on stabilizing and increasing deposit volumes, while joint-stock banks and leading city commercial banks aim to optimize customer asset structures and encourage diversified asset management [3][4]. Group 3: Wealth Management Market - The wealth management market has not seen a significant influx of funds, with a reported decrease of approximately 161.2 billion yuan in total market scale in early 2026 compared to the end of December 2025 [5]. - Despite favorable conditions for wealth management, low-risk appetite among depositors and ongoing financial pressures are limiting the movement of funds from deposits to wealth management products [5][6]. Group 4: Risk Preferences - The majority of depositors maintain a low-risk profile, with a high retention rate of deposits, which has historically remained above 90% [6]. - The potential for increased risk appetite and the release of excess savings will depend on improvements in the macroeconomic and liquidity environment [6].