年初配置资金有望入场，逢低做多 股指月报 2025/01/04 蒋文斌（宏观金融组） 0755-23375128 jiangwb@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3048844 交易咨询号：Z0017196 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 利率与信用环境 02 期现市场 05 资金面 03 经济与企业盈利 06 估值 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 重要消息：1、特朗普称抓获委内瑞拉总统马杜罗及其夫人并带离委内瑞拉；2、"十五五"开局之年多型新火箭将首飞并挑战 回收；3、元旦假期，恒生指数及纳斯达克中国金龙指数大涨；4、国家集成电路基金在中芯国际H股的持股比例从4.79%升至 9.25%；5、离岸人民币兑美元升破6.97，最高升至6.9678，创2023年5月以来新高。 经济与企业盈利：1、国家统计局：11月份，规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长4.8%，社会消费品零售总额同比增长1.3%，全 国固定资产投资同比下降2.6%；2、12月官方制造业PMI为50.1，前值49.2,生产和订单均有所改善；3、2025年11月份M1增速 4.9%，前值6.2%。M2增速8.2%，前值8.0%,主要受基数及财政 ...

南华期货 苯乙烯不建议高位追多 新湖期货 苯乙烯单边价格暂以宽幅震荡 南华期货：苯乙烯不建议高位追多 12月30日盘中，苯乙烯期货主力合约延续震荡走势，最高上探至6843.00元。截止发稿，苯乙烯主力合 约报6809.00元，涨幅0.80%。 苯乙烯期货主力涨近1%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 新湖期货：苯乙烯单边价格暂以宽幅震荡 苯乙烯方面，天津渤化45万吨苯乙烯装置计划外停车，近端供应有所收缩；需求方面近期苯乙烯出口商 谈较多，供需两端均有利多消息，提振市场情绪。盘面的反弹除了有基本面的利多也有资金配置转变的 助推。近期化工板块整体情绪好转，资金开始低位布多，最为明显的是明年预期较好的PX、PTA,PX、 PTA短时间拉涨明显，同为芳烃品种纯苯、苯乙烯亦跟随上涨。需要注意的是基本面虽有好转但当前仍 处于需求淡季，短期盘面迅速拉涨主力而基差是走弱的，并不建议高位追多。后续重点关注苯乙烯出口 增量的持续性以及宏观层面"反内卷"进一步动向。 江苏苯乙烯市场收盘价格在6790-6840元/吨，较上一工作日涨50元/吨。市场继续消化计划外供应减量、 出口成交增多等利好，日内暂未有新消息面 ...

12月24日，伦敦现货黄金价格历史首次突破每盎司4500美元，凌厉的涨势再次夺得市场的目光。在短期 波动与长期机遇交织下，这一备受全球资本青睐的资产，将如何演绎后续行情？请看机构最新研判。 黄金近期呈现出"震荡抬升"的中期运行特征，核心源于宏观环境、政策预期与资金配置的三重逻辑支 撑。 第一，美国宏观经济与就业数据弱化，强化避险与降息预期。美国经济呈现放缓迹象，就业与通胀数据 整体显示经济动能放缓，实际利率小幅下行，市场对美国货币政策进一步转紧的担忧明显下降。尽管短 期内降息节奏仍存在不确定性，但"难以再度明显收紧"的政策环境，为黄金价格提供了重要的底部支 撑。同时，由于部分经济数据受到统计扰动与政府停摆等因素影响，其参考价值下降，政策判断的不确 定性反而强化了黄金的避险与对冲属性，使其在高位仍能维持相对稳健的表现。 一是，与普通黄金持有者一样，央行同样也需要管理资产投资，在黄金价格波动周期中切换资产配置， 例如美债和黄金之间的比例调整，从而达到资产收益最优。 二是，例如金融制裁等极端情形之下，一国政府或面临支付和交易困境，若持有黄金，可在国际市场上 通过黄金而展开特定交易，黄金作为最不具备争议的"共时性货币 ...

| 【行情数据】 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 资产类别 | 细分品种 | 收盘价 | | 周度涨跌情况 | | | | 数据时点 | | 2025/12/19 | | 2025/12/15 | 至 | 2025/12/19 | | | 焦煤 | 1108.00 | 焦煤 | | | 9.00% | | | PTA | 4882.00 | PTA | | 5.81% | | | | 多晶硅 | 60245.00 | 多晶硅 | | 5.34% | | | | PVC | 4652.00 | PVC | | 4.00% | | | | 白银 | 15376.00 | 白银 | | 3.25% | | | | 铁矿石 | 780.00 | 铁矿石 | | 2.56% | | | | 玻璃 | 1041.00 | 玻璃 | | 2.46% | | | | 甲醇 | 2148.00 | 甲醇 | | 2.33% | | | 大宗商品 | 螺纹钢 | 3119.00 | 螺纹钢 | 1.93% | | | | | 黄金 | 979 ...

Group 1 - The market is experiencing fluctuations, with funds increasingly investing in ETFs focused on brokerage firms [1] - As of December 1, the Securities ETF (159841) has seen a net inflow of 47.4 million units on December 2, accumulating nearly 245 million yuan over the previous seven trading days [1] - The Securities ETF (159841) has a current scale of 10.63 billion yuan, making it the only securities ETF in the Shenzhen market to exceed 10 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - Recent adjustments have seen several brokerage stocks included in major broad-based indices, enhancing industry representation and market adaptability [2] - The non-bank financial sector is currently undervalued, with an increasing probability of a bull market and significant earnings elasticity [2] - Regulatory support for ETF development and long-term capital inflow is favorable for the financial sector, with the securities industry benefiting from its beta characteristics in a bull market [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in the public fund issuance market in November, with a total scale of 966.16 billion yuan, indicating strong investor enthusiasm for subscriptions [2] - A total of 136 new funds were established in November, reflecting a positive trend in both volume and price, driven by increased year-end capital allocation needs [2] - Equity funds (stock and mixed types) remain the main force in the market, with an issuance scale of 306.69 billion yuan, accounting for 32.43% of the total scale, showcasing investor confidence in the equity market [2][3] Group 2 - The top new fund by issuance scale was the E Fund Ruiyi Ying'an 6-Month Holding A, with 58.48 billion yuan, followed closely by Changcheng Yuanli A at 52.51 billion yuan [2][4] - The issuance scale of mixed funds was 239.99 billion yuan, representing 25.38% of the total, while the combined total for equity funds reached 546.69 billion yuan, making up 57.81% of the total issuance [2] - Bond funds also played a significant role, with an issuance scale of 216.66 billion yuan, accounting for 22.91%, and FOFs (funds of funds) reached 169.75 billion yuan, representing 17.95% of the total [3] Group 3 - Notable interest was observed in funds targeting overseas emerging markets, with two ETFs focused on the Brazilian market raising a combined 3 billion yuan, significantly exceeding their initial fundraising limits [3] - The strong performance of bond funds and FOFs indicates a continued demand for stable returns and professional fund selection among investors [3][4] - The concentration of fund establishment dates in November allowed new products to meet year-end capital allocation needs effectively, contributing to a substantial influx of new capital into the market [4]

Group 1 - The overall market experienced a pullback last week, but there are signs that funding pressure may ease marginally moving forward [2][4] - On the demand side, the trend of private equity registration and public fund issuance continues to recover, with private equity fund registrations rising to 337, exceeding 300 for two consecutive weeks [3][50] - On the supply side, the peak of A-share unlock market value has passed, and the net reduction in industrial capital has decreased, indicating a marginal easing of funding supply pressure [2][68] Group 2 - The liquidity pressure in the domestic market has slightly eased, with the A-share unlock market value dropping to less than 20 billion, down from nearly 100 billion last week [2][72] - The net reduction in industrial capital has decreased from nearly 15 billion to 7.4 billion, although there remains high reduction pressure in the telecommunications, electronics, and power equipment sectors [2][68] Group 3 - The trend of private equity and public fund issuance continues, with private equity fund registrations at 337 and public fund issuance rising to 22.1 billion [3][25] - The number of weekly reports for stock-type funds remains around 20, with technology fund reports increasing from 5 to 14, marking a new high since October [3][50] Group 4 - Trading sentiment among various funds has shown signs of adjustment, with retail funds experiencing a net outflow of 27.4 billion, while inflows were seen in sectors like computers and power equipment [6][9] - Leverage funds also saw a net outflow of 29.5 billion, with trading activity at a low of 10.01% [17][61] Group 5 - The allocation direction of various funds has diverged, with retail funds showing a net outflow in machinery, basic chemicals, and public utilities, while inflows were noted in sectors like computers and power equipment [6][9] - The average guarantee ratio in the margin trading market has dropped to 265%, indicating a potential decrease in leverage [21][22] Group 6 - The net inflow of ETFs reached 43.6 billion, with significant inflows in technology and pharmaceutical sectors [36][43] - The average daily trading volume of northbound funds has decreased to 209.5 billion, with a net outflow of 5.1 billion in actively managed foreign capital [61][62]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a significant influx of capital, with southbound funds and public funds increasing their investments, indicating a strong interest in the market despite recent volatility [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index has shown a "first decline then rise" pattern in Q4, with a cumulative increase of 0.81% as of November 13, and a maximum drawdown of -8.17% [3]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index has seen a decline of 7.49% during the same period, with a maximum drawdown exceeding 15% [3]. - Both indices have outperformed major global markets this year, with annual increases exceeding 33% [3]. Group 2: Capital Inflow - Southbound funds have net purchased 1.31 trillion HKD this year, a historical high, representing a more than 60% increase compared to last year's total inflow of approximately 807.87 billion HKD [3][4]. - The cumulative net purchase of southbound funds has surpassed 5 trillion HKD [3]. - Public funds have significantly increased their holdings in Hong Kong stocks, reaching an investment value of 1.36 trillion HKD by the end of Q3, a more than 40% increase from the previous quarter and a doubling from the same period last year [4]. Group 3: Fund Strategies - Over half of the active equity funds have increased their allocation to Hong Kong stocks, with notable increases in positions for several funds [5]. - The trend of using ETFs to invest in Hong Kong stocks has surged, with 79 Hong Kong Stock Connect-themed ETFs seeing a net inflow of nearly 300 million HKD in Q4 alone, and a total of 218.4 billion HKD for the year [5]. - The total scale of these ETFs has increased 3.4 times from 799.57 billion HKD at the end of last year to 3.5287 trillion HKD [5]. Group 4: Investment Preferences - Dividend-paying assets are increasingly favored, with specific ETFs attracting significant net subscriptions [6]. - There is a noticeable shift in capital flows, with reduced interest in previously popular sectors like technology and innovation drugs, indicating a rebalancing of investment styles [6]. Group 5: Market Dynamics - The alternating activity between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is attributed to industry cycle rotations rather than significant capital shifts between the two markets [8]. - The Hong Kong market is seen as attractive due to its dual appeal for defensive and growth-oriented investments, with high dividend yields and innovative sectors [9]. - Concerns about potential bubbles in growth assets are tempered by the view that recent price increases are corrections of previously low valuations rather than speculative bubbles [10].

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant market shift where gold prices have sharply declined while the A-share market has reached a milestone, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the 4000-point mark for the first time in ten years [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The recent drop in gold prices, which fell below $4000 per ounce and continued to decline, is attributed to high leverage in gold ETFs and a crowded trade environment, as noted in a report by Shenwan Hongyuan Research [3][4]. - In contrast, the A-share market's rise is supported by a healthier valuation basis, with the current market PE ratio around 17 times, compared to over 40 times in 2007 and about 20 times in 2015 [4]. Investment Sentiment - The shift in capital between gold and A-shares reflects changing market logic, influenced by easing trade tensions between China and the U.S., rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and a strengthening yuan [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that the key to investing in A-shares post-4000 points lies in distinguishing between liquidity-driven growth and genuine economic recovery, with a focus on technology growth sectors [5][6]. Regulatory Environment - The regulatory framework is shifting towards long-term stability, with the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasizing investor protection and systemic reforms to enhance market stability [7]. - New measures to attract foreign investment include optimizing the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) system, which aims to create a more transparent and efficient investment environment [7]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that while gold may present opportunities for long-term investors at lower price points, the current market sentiment indicates a transition from risk aversion to expectations of economic growth and corporate profitability, which could support a sustained upward trend in A-shares [8].

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a significant decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3839.76 points, down nearly 2%, and both the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index falling over 3%, indicating a cautious and risk-averse sentiment among investors [1] - A joint policy document aimed at the development of the accommodation industry was released after market hours, which may signal an attempt to boost confidence in a sector that has seen a decline of over 10% since late September [1][3] - The tourism and hotel sector index is approaching a critical support level that previously halted further declines earlier this year, with oversold signals suggesting a potential for a rebound, although the overall market conditions will influence the sustainability of any upward movement [1][3] Group 2 - Key market levels to watch include the 60-day moving average for the Shanghai Composite Index, which may rise to around 3790 next week, and the 2900-point mark for the ChiNext Index, with potential implications for mid-term trends if these levels are breached [3] - The newly introduced policies, while comprehensive, will be evaluated by the market based on their ability to improve short-term performance and influence capital flows, with some institutional investors beginning to allocate funds to select tourism stocks [3][4] - The tourism and hotel sector is expected to be a focal point for the market next week, serving as both a beneficiary of the new policies and a test of whether positive news can effectively impact a weak market [4]