证券研究报告·海外公司点评·食物饮品(HS) 中烟香港（06055.HK） 境内免税市场独家出口卷烟，毛利率有望提 升 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万港元） | 11,836 | 13,074 | 14,856 | 16,071 | 17,470 | | 同比(%) | 42.19 | 10.46 | 13.63 | 8.17 | 8.71 | | 归母净利润（百万港元） | 598.77 | 853.74 | 938.26 | 1,057.95 | 1,300.22 | | 同比(%) | 59.71 | 42.58 | 9.90 | 12.76 | 22.90 | | EPS-最新摊薄（港元/股） | 0.87 | 1.23 | 1.36 | 1.53 | 1.88 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 52.81 | 37.04 | 33.70 | 29.89 | 24.32 | [Table_Ta ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in the electronic cigarette export tax rebate policy is expected to significantly impact the electronic cigarette manufacturing industry, leading to a new round of industry reshuffling. Although the short-term performance of Smoore International (06969) may be affected, its long-term position is likely to be further solidified [1] Group 1: Company Insights - Smoore International's stock rebounded over 6%, currently trading at 11.44 HKD with a transaction volume of 294 million HKD [1] - The company is closely tied to leading brands, which may help it navigate the short-term challenges posed by the tax rebate policy [1] Group 2: Industry Analysis - The adjustment in tax rebates is anticipated to help the industry gradually emerge from the price war [1] - International tobacco giants are entering mainstream markets with HNB products, which may boost sales of new tobacco products in new regions [1] - There is potential for increased profitability in regions like the UK and Europe, particularly with the shift towards more profitable pod-based and open-system products [1] - Strengthened enforcement of electronic cigarette regulations in the U.S. is expected to create significant recovery space for compliant product shares [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant rebound in Smoore International's stock price, which increased by over 6% and is currently trading at 11.44 HKD with a transaction volume of 294 million HKD [1] - The recent adjustment in the electronic cigarette export tax rebate policy is expected to have a substantial impact on the electronic cigarette manufacturing industry, leading to a new round of industry reshuffling [1] - Although Smoore's short-term performance may be affected by the tax rebate policy changes, its long-term position is anticipated to strengthen due to its deep ties with leading brands [1] Group 2 - The reduction in tax rebate incentives is expected to help the industry gradually emerge from the price war [1] - With the entry of international tobacco giants' HNB products into mainstream markets, the sales of the company's new tobacco products in new regions are likely to contribute to incremental growth [1] - The enforcement of electronic cigarette regulations, particularly in the United States, is expected to create significant recovery opportunities for compliant product market share [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant decline in the stock price of Smoore International (06969), which dropped nearly 7% during trading and is currently down 3.31% at HKD 11.4, with a trading volume of HKD 132 million [1] - The Chinese Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced a new export tax rebate adjustment, which will exclude nicotine-containing non-combustible products from the rebate starting April 1, 2026 [1] - Analysts indicate that the previous 13% tax rebate was crucial for companies to offset costs and maintain international pricing advantages; the removal of this rebate means companies will have to bear the full VAT cost, directly compressing profit margins [1] Group 2 - Huafu Securities released a research report suggesting that with international tobacco leaders' HNB products entering mainstream markets, Smoore's new tobacco products in new regions are expected to contribute incremental sales [1] - The report also notes that regions like the UK and other European areas are likely to shift towards more profitable products such as cartridge-based and open-system devices [1] - There is a significant increase in enforcement of regulations on e-cigarettes in the US, which is expected to restore market share for compliant products [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant impact of the Chinese government's announcement to remove export tax rebates for nicotine-containing non-combustible products, effective from April 1, 2026, which is expected to compress profit margins for companies like Smoore International [1] - Smoore International's stock experienced a decline of nearly 7% during trading, closing down 3.31% at HKD 11.4, with a trading volume of HKD 132 million [1] - The previous 13% tax rebate was crucial for companies to offset costs and maintain international pricing advantages; the removal of this rebate means companies will have to bear the full value-added tax costs [1] Group 2 - Huafu Securities released a report indicating that the entry of international tobacco leaders' HNB products into mainstream markets could lead to increased sales of Smoore's new tobacco products in new regions [1] - There is potential for stronger profitability in regions like the UK and other European areas, particularly with the shift towards more profitable pod-based and open-system products [1] - The enforcement of regulations on e-cigarettes in the US has intensified, suggesting a significant recovery potential for compliant product shares in the market [1]