Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and real estate services sectors [6]. Core Insights - The U.S. housing market in H1 2025 is under significant pressure from high prices and interest rates, leading to historically low housing affordability and a decline in both new and existing home sales [1][11]. - Existing home prices have reached record highs, with the median price in June 2025 at $433,000, marking a 1.4% year-on-year increase [20]. - The overall inventory of homes has increased slightly, but existing home inventory remains tight, indicating ongoing supply-demand imbalances [3][48]. Summary by Sections Transactions & Prices - In the first half of 2025, new home sales totaled 330,000 units, down 3.7% year-on-year, while existing home sales were 2.04 million units, a slight decrease of 0.2% [2][11]. - The median price for new homes averaged $417,000, a decrease of 1.2% compared to the same period in 2024, while existing homes saw a median price increase of 2.4% to $411,000 [2][20]. Supply - As of June 2025, new home inventory stood at 502,000 units, a 2.7% increase from December 2024, while existing home inventory rose to 1.54 million units, a 35.1% increase [3][48]. - The months of supply for existing homes is 4.7 months, indicating a continued shortage despite the marginal increase in inventory [48]. Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds target rate between 4.25% and 4.50% since early 2025, with 30-year fixed mortgage rates fluctuating between 6.65% and 6.96% [4][53]. - As of August 2025, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate slightly decreased to 6.59%, still within the 80.4% percentile historically [4][53]. H2 2025 Outlook - The report anticipates that high construction material costs and increased inventory pressures will lead to a conservative approach from builders, resulting in a continued decline in new home starts [60]. - The "rate lock effect" is expected to persist, limiting existing homeowners' willingness to sell, thereby exacerbating the existing home inventory shortage [1][60].

加拿大6月新屋价格指数月率 -0.2%，前值-0.2%。 ...

金十数据6月25日讯，美国5月份新屋购买量降至七个月以来的最低点，原因是大量销售激励措施未能缓 解经济承受能力的限制。政府数据显示，上月美国新屋销售总数年化为62.3万套，下降13.7%，低于市 场预期。在抵押贷款利率接近7%、关税导致材料成本上升以及劳动力市场放缓等日益严峻的经济挑战 下，房屋建筑商正艰难维持订单。尽管建筑商们正在提供补贴以降低客户的融资成本，但这些优惠措施 的回报正在减少，并促使许多建筑商放慢了建设速度。数据显示，5月单户住宅的动工速度为2023年以 来最慢。待售新房数量略有增加，达到2007年以来的水平。竣工待售房屋数量增至119,000套，创近16 年新高。 美国5月新屋销售跌至七个月低点 ...

美国新屋开工量降至五年低位 金十数据6月18日讯，美国5月新屋开工总数下降至疫情爆发以来的最低水平，待售房屋库存增加和抵押 贷款利率高企削弱了建设动力。周三公布的数据显示，上月新屋开工量下降9.8%，至126万套。多户住 宅开工量较2023年以来最强劲的水平之一下滑了近30%。新独栋房屋开工数微升至92.4万户，上月数据 向下修正。5月营建许可总数降至139万份，也是五年来的最低水平。报告显示，在多重不利因素影响 下，住房建设活动依然低迷。其中包括已完工房屋库存攀升至2009年以来的最高水平。多年来房价的持 续上涨以及居高不下的融资成本正在抑制需求，促使建筑商不断加大购房激励措施。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian new home price index remained unchanged in March, with a monthly rate of 0%, compared to a previous value of 0.1% [1] Group 1 - The new home price index in Canada for March showed no growth, indicating a stabilization in the housing market [1]