金十数据6月25日讯，美国5月份新屋购买量降至七个月以来的最低点，原因是大量销售激励措施未能缓 解经济承受能力的限制。政府数据显示，上月美国新屋销售总数年化为62.3万套，下降13.7%，低于市 场预期。在抵押贷款利率接近7%、关税导致材料成本上升以及劳动力市场放缓等日益严峻的经济挑战 下，房屋建筑商正艰难维持订单。尽管建筑商们正在提供补贴以降低客户的融资成本，但这些优惠措施 的回报正在减少，并促使许多建筑商放慢了建设速度。数据显示，5月单户住宅的动工速度为2023年以 来最慢。待售新房数量略有增加，达到2007年以来的水平。竣工待售房屋数量增至119,000套，创近16 年新高。 美国5月新屋销售跌至七个月低点 ...

美国新屋开工量降至五年低位 金十数据6月18日讯，美国5月新屋开工总数下降至疫情爆发以来的最低水平，待售房屋库存增加和抵押 贷款利率高企削弱了建设动力。周三公布的数据显示，上月新屋开工量下降9.8%，至126万套。多户住 宅开工量较2023年以来最强劲的水平之一下滑了近30%。新独栋房屋开工数微升至92.4万户，上月数据 向下修正。5月营建许可总数降至139万份，也是五年来的最低水平。报告显示，在多重不利因素影响 下，住房建设活动依然低迷。其中包括已完工房屋库存攀升至2009年以来的最高水平。多年来房价的持 续上涨以及居高不下的融资成本正在抑制需求，促使建筑商不断加大购房激励措施。 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - Russell Investments suggests that the Federal Reserve may maintain current interest rates throughout the summer, with potential rate cuts of one to two times by the end of the year [1] - Goldman Sachs has downgraded the U.S. recession outlook, citing that the impact of tariffs is lower than expected and the financial environment has returned to pre-tariff levels [2] - The current inflation data in the U.S. indicates that the impact of tariffs on consumer prices may be less significant than anticipated, although future CPI increases are expected due to tariff effects [2] Group 2: Global Economic and Market Trends - Analysts from Deutsche Bank note that the market's inflation and interest rate expectations in Japan are rising, putting pressure on the long-term bond market [1] - The performance of German and U.S. government bonds is influenced by inflation concerns and safe-haven demand amid escalating tensions in the Middle East [2] - The decline in new home sales in Singapore is attributed to a lack of new launches, reflecting uncertainty in the macroeconomic outlook due to global trade challenges [3] Group 3: Currency and Oil Market Dynamics - The recent appreciation of the U.S. dollar is primarily driven by a rebound in oil prices rather than traditional safe-haven dynamics [4] - The U.S. has become one of the largest oil producers globally, which means that rising oil prices not only benefit oil-producing countries but also support the dollar through improved trade conditions [4] - Investors are advised to focus on global oil price changes and their impact on U.S. trade conditions for a more accurate prediction of the dollar's performance in international markets [5]