标普发表报告称，预计中国今年新屋销售同比下跌8%至8.8万亿元至9万亿元人民币，跌幅远大于5月时 的3%预测。标普认为，若需求能先在一线城市趋向稳定，将有助需求更持续地复苏，现时预计明年销 售额将再跌6%至7%，一手楼价下跌1.5%至2.5%。 申万宏源则预计，三季度房企业绩仍将继续承压，主要源于2021年后销售连续下降导致结算下降；前期 降价促销推动当期结算影响利润率低位。但考虑到随着政府要求房地产行业"止跌回稳"以及企业利润率 见底、减值出清，综合预计25-26年板块业绩有望底部震荡中弱复苏，并且企业之间业绩分化也将进一 步加剧。 智通财经APP获悉，内房股继续走低，截至发稿，融信中国(03301)跌6.25%，报0.18港元；融创中国 (01918)跌3.13%，报1.55港元；富力地产(02777)跌3.03%，报0.64港元，新城发展(01030)跌2.94%，报 2.31港元。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and real estate services sectors [6]. Core Insights - The U.S. housing market in H1 2025 is under significant pressure from high prices and interest rates, leading to historically low housing affordability and a decline in both new and existing home sales [1][11]. - Existing home prices have reached record highs, with the median price in June 2025 at $433,000, marking a 1.4% year-on-year increase [20]. - The overall inventory of homes has increased slightly, but existing home inventory remains tight, indicating ongoing supply-demand imbalances [3][48]. Summary by Sections Transactions & Prices - In the first half of 2025, new home sales totaled 330,000 units, down 3.7% year-on-year, while existing home sales were 2.04 million units, a slight decrease of 0.2% [2][11]. - The median price for new homes averaged $417,000, a decrease of 1.2% compared to the same period in 2024, while existing homes saw a median price increase of 2.4% to $411,000 [2][20]. Supply - As of June 2025, new home inventory stood at 502,000 units, a 2.7% increase from December 2024, while existing home inventory rose to 1.54 million units, a 35.1% increase [3][48]. - The months of supply for existing homes is 4.7 months, indicating a continued shortage despite the marginal increase in inventory [48]. Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds target rate between 4.25% and 4.50% since early 2025, with 30-year fixed mortgage rates fluctuating between 6.65% and 6.96% [4][53]. - As of August 2025, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate slightly decreased to 6.59%, still within the 80.4% percentile historically [4][53]. H2 2025 Outlook - The report anticipates that high construction material costs and increased inventory pressures will lead to a conservative approach from builders, resulting in a continued decline in new home starts [60]. - The "rate lock effect" is expected to persist, limiting existing homeowners' willingness to sell, thereby exacerbating the existing home inventory shortage [1][60].

Group 1 - The Canadian new home price index decreased by 0.2% in June, consistent with the previous month's decline of 0.2% [1]

Core Viewpoint - In May, new home sales in the U.S. dropped to the lowest level in seven months, primarily due to economic affordability constraints despite various sales incentives [1] Group 1: Sales Data - The total annualized new home sales in the U.S. for May was 623,000 units, representing a decline of 13.7% compared to previous periods, falling short of market expectations [1] - The number of unsold new homes slightly increased, reaching levels not seen since 2007, with completed unsold homes rising to 119,000 units, marking a nearly 16-year high [1] Group 2: Economic Challenges - Rising mortgage rates, which are nearing 7%, along with tariffs increasing material costs and a slowing labor market, are significant economic challenges facing home builders [1] - Builders are struggling to maintain orders despite offering subsidies to reduce financing costs for customers, leading to a decrease in the effectiveness of these incentives [1] Group 3: Construction Activity - The construction pace for single-family homes in May was the slowest recorded in 2023, indicating a slowdown in building activity among home builders [1]

Core Viewpoint - The new housing starts in the U.S. have dropped to the lowest level in five years due to rising mortgage rates and increased inventory of unsold homes, indicating a slowdown in construction activity [1] Group 1: Housing Starts - In May, new housing starts fell by 9.8% to 1.26 million units, marking the lowest level since the pandemic began [1] - The multi-family housing starts decreased by nearly 30% from the strongest level seen in 2023 [1] - Single-family home starts slightly increased to 924,000 units, with the previous month's data revised downward [1] Group 2: Building Permits - The total number of building permits issued in May dropped to 1.39 million, also the lowest level in five years [1] Group 3: Market Conditions - The report highlights a continued decline in housing construction activity due to multiple adverse factors, including a rise in completed home inventory to the highest level since 2009 [1] - Sustained increases in home prices and high financing costs are suppressing demand, leading builders to enhance home purchase incentives [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian new home price index remained unchanged in March, with a monthly rate of 0%, compared to a previous value of 0.1% [1] Group 1 - The new home price index in Canada for March showed no growth, indicating a stabilization in the housing market [1]